By the end of this week, we’ll be halfway through the NFL season. Like last year, no division fascinates me quite like the NFC North.
The four occupants – Bears, Lions, Packers and Vikings – have combined to lose three games to teams outside their division. Detroit contributed two, including a short week visit to Buffalo.
A world exists where all four teams finish the season with winning records. Yet history tells us at least one of these teams will miss the playoffs.
That could change, of course, if the Rams and Seahawks implode. From there, a world exists where all four NFC North teams make the postseason.
As we enter Week 9, I project there are ceiling and floor cases for all four teams in relation to their NFL odds. Let’s dive into how the schedules shake out and the projected final standings.
NFC North Picks: Projecting This Year’s Playoff Teams
Division Winner
Entering Week 9, oddsmakers price the Bears as the favorites to win the NFC North. Currently, Ben Johnson’s team is a narrow +155 to repeat, despite a 0-2 start in the standings.
Next on the list is the Lions at +220. Dan Campbell’s squad, which continues to get decimated by defensive injuries, sits at 2-0 in division play.
Third is Minnesota at +250 with a 2-1 record in the division, followed by longshot Green Bay (+1000). To believe the Packers stand a chance, one has to believe they win their four remaining division contests.
We’ve officially reached Chicago’s peak market, and I rate this division as a two-horse race between Chicago and Detroit. Entering Week 9, my belief is the value rests with Detroit.
Why? Detroit’s two-game advantage within the division, an easy schedule, and a promising scheduling spot in one of two against Chicago.
Detroit faces the 22nd-hardest schedule the rest of the way. Chicago projects to face the sixth-hardest by current DVOA ratings, per FTN Fantasy.
Most notably, NFL schedule makers handed the Lions an advantage in their first meeting against the Bears.
The teams are scheduled to play on Thanksgiving Day. It’s a short-week road game for the Bears after a Sunday home game. For the Lions, it’s a back-to-back home spot.
It also presents a potential buy-low opportunity on Detroit. Before facing the Bears, the Lions play Tampa Bay off the Bucs’ bye AFTER returning from Germany.
The Lions did receive rest disadvantages against the Bears and Vikings in their final four games. However, they get a mini bye before playing Atlanta and an extra day before Green Bay in Week 18.
Paired with winnable games against Miami, New York (N) and Tennessee, it’s currently the Lions or pass at this point.
Which NFC North Teams Make the Playoffs?
Last week before Lions vs Vikings, I wrote about how I predicted the Vikings were going to miss the postseason.
The price has dropped a significant amount after the defeat. One defeat dropped Minnesota from +550 to +275 to miss the postseason.
Even still, I remain intrigued by a Minnesota missed postseason due to the upcoming schedule.
Kevin O’Connell’s next six games are as follows: Buffalo, Green Bay, San Francisco in Mexico City, Atlanta (Falcons off a bye), Carolina and a short-week road game against the Patriots.
Big yikes.
It’s my belief that, at best, Minnesota finishes with one more divisional win. Chicago dominated them on the ground and can do the same in Week 18.
The trip to Green Bay follows MNF. In Week 1, the Packers lost 22-0 in the fourth quarter, leading by five at the start.
Buffalo, San Francisco and Atlanta can all run the ball on this team. New England can maybe do the same. At worst, I don’t trust the Vikings offense in that spot.
Put simply: a floor case exists where this team beats Carolina, Washington and the Jets to finish 9-8 and miss the playoffs.
From there, bettors should ask whether the NFC West or North earns three playoff berths.
I could wax poetic about the Packers defense for hours. Soon, they’ll return Micah Parsons and look even better.
For now, I’ll say that the only game since Week 5 they allowed beneath a -10% DVOA grade came against the Lions….who were off a bye.
In Week 9, the Packers travel to play New England with three extra days to prepare. The next week, the Packers get the Vikings at home with Minnesota on a short week.
In Week 11, the Packers travel to face the Rams. Both teams have their bye in Week 10, with that game potentially deciding a playoff spot.
Should the Packers win that game, their next three are as follows: New Orleans (A), Buffalo (H), Miami (H). It’s not unrealistic that Green Bay goes 5-1 or 6-0 over that stretch.
While I dislike the closing stretch – at Chicago on Christmas, vs. Houston, vs. Detroit – I like their current playoff price (-110).
If the Vikings do in fact miss the playoffs, I predict it’s because Green Bay makes it.
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