Last Thursday, Tampa Bay essentially saved their season.
As a 9.5-point underdog in Dallas, Jalon Daniels led a shocking victory over the Dallas Cowboys. It led to Tampa Bay avoiding a 0-5 start that surely would have doomed their season.
“But surely a 1-4 team has never made the playoffs,” you might inquire. Actually, we have historical precedent for a team coming back from 1-4 to reach the postseason.
The 2024 Los Angeles Rams went from 1-4 to 10-7 and an NFC West title. Last season, the Ravens finished a Tyler Loop field goal away from turning a 1-5 start into a division crown.
Entering Week 6, NFL odds give the Buccaneers a 20% implied probability of winning the NFC South at +500.
What I’m here to argue is that Tampa’s underlying metrics and remaining schedule give Todd Bowles’ team a better chance than that figure suggests.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ +700NFC South Pick: Tampa Bay Bucs (+500) Win Division
Since the NFL moved to a dynamic kickoff, defense has correlated more with a playoff appearance than offense.
In each of the last two seasons, nine of the top-11 defenses reached the postseason. In 2024, the Steelers and Seahawks missed the playoffs. Last year, it was the Browns and Lions.
Entering Week 6, the Bucs possess the best defense within the division. Tampa Bay places fifth in defensive DVOA, buoyed by a sixth-place rating in rush defense DVOA.
After beginning the season with two sub-par performances, Todd Bowles’ unit roared back. Against the Vikings, Packers and Cowboys, Tampa Bay averaged a -25% DVOA rating.
| Week | Opponent | Defensive DVOA | Pass Defense DVOA | Rush Defense DVOA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% |
| Week 2 | Cleveland Browns | 16.2% | 61.1% | -47.0% |
| Week 3 | Minnesota Vikings | -27.4% | -19.1% | -35.6% |
| Week 4 | Green Bay Packers | -24.8% | -14.1% | -34.4% |
| Week 5 | @ Dallas Cowboys | -22.8% | -42.7% | -7.7% |
| Average | Weeks 1–5 | -10.0% | -1.1% | -23.3% |
By contrast, the Falcons, Panthers and Saints rank 12th, 21st and 31st in the category. Atlanta’s ranking, however, is buoyed by a -29.9% rating against the Packers.
Their best outside that game? A -11.4% output at Pittsburgh.
Baltimore showed in Week 5 that Atlanta’s run defense is semi-fraudulent. The Falcons, after recording a -28.5% rush defense DVOA rating through Week 4, regressed to +47.5% in Week 5.
How about the offenses?
Carolina ranks as the best of the bunch at ninth in offensive DVOA. But a lot of the rating, which is bolstered by a 30.5% pass offense rating, is driven by opponent weakness.
The Panthers offense cleared a 33% pass offense rating against the Bears, Falcons (without A.J. Terrell) and Lions. Hardly an accomplishment given how most view those defenses.
The Falcons rank eight spots behind (17th) and are entirely driven by the run game. Atlanta ranks 30th in pass offense against fourth in rush offense.
Two Cooper Rush games will contribute to that ranking. Still, it’s an offense whose rating is driven by good games against a bad Packers defense and an injured Saints unit.
Meanwhile, the Bucs offense is slowly rising up the rankings. Despite playing Jalon Daniels, Zac Robinson’s offense posted two straight positive pass DVOA performances.
The offense also ranks ninth in rush offense DVOA at 3.7%. Are you ready to have your mind blown? That output comes despite a -50.4% rush offense DVOA rating against Minnesota!
| Week | Opponent | Offensive DVOA | Pass Offense DVOA | Rush Offense DVOA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | -13.8% | 2.7% | 2.3% |
| Week 2 | Cleveland Browns | 0.6% | -5.5% | 10.3% |
| Week 3 | Minnesota Vikings | -28.8% | -16.4% | -50.4% |
| Week 4 | Green Bay Packers | -9.2% | 4.4% | -1.0% |
| Week 5 | @ Dallas Cowboys | 31.2% | 42.3% | 57.3% |
| Average | Weeks 1–5 | -4.0% | 5.5% | 3.7% |
In all four other games, Tampa Bay averaged a +17.2% rush offense rating. Even if you want to throw out the Dallas game, it remains a +3.9% rating.
Eventually, Baker Mayfield will return and open up the offense. He’ll re-inherit a team with the best offensive line in the division and a case for positive regression.
Although Tampa Bay sits at 1-4, their four losses came by a combined 20 points. All four finished within seven points. Their +4 red zone differential trails only five teams.
Those signals paint the picture of a team better than their record. If the one-possession game luck swings the other way, an easier-than-perceived schedule opens the door for a title.
Schedule Construction May Favor Buccaneers
Beyond the underlying metrics, Tampa Bay’s future schedule offers a glimmer of optimism, too.
Here’s a breakdown of where we currently stand in the division and unique games.
Atlanta sits at 1-1 within the division, having yet to play any of its unique games.
Those games – Washington, San Francisco and Kansas City – are rated as the second-hardest set in the division based on opening win totals.
New Orleans sits at 0-1 in the division and 0-1 in unique games. In Week 6, New Orleans goes to the Giants for a unique game before facing the Cardinals later in the season.
Carolina, a massive regression candidate to begin the season, gets unique games against Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. A 2-1 or 3-0 record in that group would shock me.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay’s uniques look easier than anticipated. With a win against Dallas already in tow, the Bucs play additional unique games against the Chargers and Rams.
Even if the Rams game goes poorly for the Bucs, I like their defensive matchup against the Chargers.
Plus, the defensive quality gives them a puncher’s chance as dogs against Chicago and Detroit in common games. As we saw with Carolina, any team can beat the Lions.
Finally, let’s talk about the division games. Last year, every team finished 3-3 within the NFC South. Almost every game finished within a single possession.
Tampa Bay’s three losses in the division came by eight total points. If games swing the other way and the Bucs win four or five games in the division, this race is up for grabs.
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