NFL Playoff Predictions: 2 Best Make/Miss Playoff Picks

Below, bettors can my NFL playoff predictions for the 2026 season based on NFL odds.

The playoffs saw lots of turnover from 2024 to 2025. Largely driven by a lack of repeat division winners – only Philadelphia reclaimed the division – seeding looked significantly different.

In fact, both conference top seeds from 2024 – Kansas City and Detroit – missed the playoffs entirely.

What changes will occur to the playoff picture in 2026? Let’s dive into my predictions – odds are reflective at time of writing.

2 Best NFL Playoff Predictions for 2026

Jacksonville Jaguars – Miss the Playoffs (+115)

Virtually all the stars aligned for Jacksonville on their way to 13 wins and an AFC South crown.

The offense peaked late in the year with the defense thriving. However, turnovers proved a staple of Anthony Campanile’s defense as Jacksonville finished second in takeaways.

Year over year, Jacksonville produced 22 extra takeaways. The defensive success undoubtedly contributed to a 6-3 record in one-possession games and a 3-0 record in field-goal games.

It also contributed to 30 possessions starting from opponent territory and 27 points off defense or special teams touchdowns.

But I’m not sure the defense is as good as its sixth-place DVOA rating suggests. Jacksonville played the league’s 21st-hardest set of opposing defenses and a lot of bad quarterbacks.

Only the Patriots played a higher percentage of snaps against quarterbacks that finished the season 30th or worse in EPA per play.

Next year, Jacksonville’s defensive schedule projects to get more difficult. The unit goes from facing opponents averaging a -1% DVOA rating to a -0.3% rating.

For a team that finished 2.2 wins over expected, Jacksonville fits the profile of a team that falls out of the postseason entirely.

Read More: The Case for All 32 NFL Teams to Make/Miss Playoffs

Denver Broncos – Miss the Playoffs (+115)

Like Jacksonville, Denver built its 14-3 season off outstanding defensive play. However, that side of the ball proves more volatile year over year.

It leads me to believe Denver encounters a sizable drop-off in wins due to countless regression metrics.

Let’s start here: Denver finished 11-2 in one-possession games last year. OK, 10-2 if you exclude the road win at Las Vegas, which kicked a meaningless field goal as time expired.

The Broncos also finished 6-2 in field-goal games. If not for an ill-timed penalty at Indianapolis on the final play, it’s likely 7-1. Denver also won 14 games despite only eight halftime leads.

While the schedule looks pretty manageable – 11th easiest by 2026 strength of schedule – I see a path to this team regressing by six wins.

Denver finished 5-1 in the division last year, including two wins against Chris Oladokun and Trey Lance. Even if you give them three wins, it still drops the Broncos to 12.

Then you’re basically asking Denver to regress from a 9-2 non-divisional record to 6-5 or worse. I’m eyeing games against teams with outstanding passing games to inform that decline.

Games against the Rams, Seahawks, 49ers, Bills, Patriots and Jaguars all offer regression opportunities.

Last year, Denver played only eight games against quarterbacks 17th or better in adjusted EPA per play. Next year, the projection rises to 10 games.

If the defense takes a step back, I predict it correlates with a lack of team success.