NFL Survivor Picks: Best Week 3 Pool Predictions

Below, NFL survivor pool players can find my Week 3 picks based on NFL odds at BetMGM.

For those new to the format, survivor contests ask players to pick one straight-up winner each week. However, players can only use each team once during the season.

Best NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 3 2026

Detroit Lions (-6.5) vs New York Jets

Trusting the Lions defense this early is not for the faint of heart. Still, this qualifies as one of two potential spots to use the Lions, in my estimation.

Detroit gets a mini-bye week before facing the Jets. New York, led by former Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, is traveling off a home overtime game against the Packers.

While New York qualified as somewhat unlucky to lose that game, I worry about their defense in this spot.

One thing we know about the Lions so far: the offense is good. Detroit ranks 10th in offensive DVOA, including fourth in rush offense DVOA.

While the Jets rank first in rush defense DVOA, it’s not as if they’ve played any good rushing attacks, especially the Packers.

Tennessee showed signs of life against the Eagles, but I remain most confident in the Lions as the best rushing unit of the trio.

With extra time to prepare, I trust the Lions offense as the best unit on the field. It leads me to predict they offer a good zag from potentially more popular teams in the pool.

Kansas City Chiefs (-11) at Miami Dolphins

This week begins the potential strategy of “take whoever is playing the Miami Dolphins” as a viable survivor strategy.

San Francisco brushed off the jet lag and throttled Miami 35-13 in Week 2. The defensive performance is a touch misleading, but this Dolphins defense is going to be a problem.

Miami has allowed at least 27 points to the Raiders and 49ers. The unit now faces a Chiefs defense that ranks sixth in offensive DVOA through two games.

Kansas City caught a scare against the Colts in Week 2. However, the offense excelled against a comparably bad defense.

Through two games, Miami and Indianapolis rank as the two worst defenses by DVOA. While Miami (31st) is technically better, they’ve played an easier opponent duo.

In his career, Patrick Mahomes is 59-5 as a favorite of six points or more. Four of his five losses have come within the AFC West.

It’s unlikely any team beats out Kansas City as the consensus pick, of course. Still, it’s hard to see them dropping this game given how well the offense is playing.