Packers vs Lions Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 7

• The Lions are -3 point favorites vs the Packers
• Total (Over/Under): 52.5 points
• Watch this game on FOX

The Green Bay Packers (4-2-0) visit Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions (3-2-0) on Oct. 25. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 pm in Detroit, MI.

The Lions are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).

The Packers vs. Lions Over/Under is 52.5 total points for the game.

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Packers vs. Lions Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Packers vs. Lions Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Lions will win this game with 59.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Packers vs Lions Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Packers will cover the spread with 52.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Packers players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Packers Player Prop Bets Today

• Jordan Love has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.55 Units / 42% ROI)
• Josh Jacobs has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 51% ROI)
• Josh Jacobs has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.65 Units / 63% ROI)
• Kaleb Johnson has hit the Carries Under in his last 5 games (+5.55 Units / 90% ROI)
• Jonnu Smith has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.27 Units / 33% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Lions players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Lions Player Prop Best Bets Today

• Jared Goff has hit the Passing Yards Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.35 Units / 40% ROI)
• Jared Goff has hit the Completions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.25 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jared Goff has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.10 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jameson Williams has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+4.75 Units / 23% ROI)
• Jared Goff has hit the Carries Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 33% ROI)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Lions vs Packers

Packers Best Bets:

• The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Green Bay Packers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.50 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Green Bay Packers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.50 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Green Bay Packers have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 10 away games (+2.90 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Green Bay Packers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+2.85 Units / 14% ROI)

Lions Best Bets:

• The Detroit Lions have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+10.20 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Detroit Lions have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.30 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Detroit Lions have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.30 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.70 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Detroit Lions have covered the 4Q Spread in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.10 Units / 17% ROI)

Packers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Packers are 2-2 (-0.2 Units / -3.05% ROI).

• Packers are 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 7.51% ROI
• Packers are 2-4 when betting the Over for -2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI
• PackersPackersPackers are 4-2 when betting the Under for +1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI

Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions are 1-3 (-2.3 Units / -41.82% ROI).

• Lions are 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.2 Units / -1.68% ROI
• Lions are 5-0 when betting the Over for +5 Units / 90.91% ROI
• Lions are 0-5 when betting the Under for -5.5 Units / -100% ROI

Green Bay Packers: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions

Packers are 12-5 (.706) when allowing less than 7 explosive plays in a game (10th-best in NFL) and just .167 when allowing less than 7 explosive plays in a game since the 2025 season (T-4th-worst in NFL).

Packers are 12-4-1 (.706) when allowing less than 3 explosive run plays in a game (10th-best in NFL) and just .167 when allowing 3 or more explosive run plays in a game since the 2025 season (T-7th-worst in NFL).

Packers are 10-1-1 (.833) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns (4th-best in NFL) and just .273 when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2025 season (8th-worst in NFL).

Packers are 12-5-1 (.667) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush (9th-best in NFL) and just .200 when allowing more than 5 yards per rush since the 2025 season (T-6th-worst in NFL).

Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Green Bay Packers

Lions are 3-9 (.250) when allowing 10 or more rushes of 4+ yards (8th-worst in NFL) and .900 when allowing 1ess than 10 plays of 4+ yards rushing since the 2025 season (T-3rd-best in NFL).

Lions are 11-4 (.733) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush (T-6th-best in NFL) and just .143 when allowing more than 5 yards per rush since the 2025 season (3rd-worst in NFL).

Lions are 12-1 (.923) when rushing for 100 or more yards (2nd-best in NFL) and just .000 when rushing for less than 100 yards since the 2025 season (T-worst in NFL).

Lions are 2-9 (.182) when allowing 100 yards rushing or more (7th-worst in NFL) and .909 when allowing less than 100 yards rushing since the 2025 season (T-4th-best in NFL).

Additional Matchup Notes for Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions

The Lions have scored on 15.4% of their drives in the first quarter this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Packers defense has allowed scores on 12.5% of opponent drives in the first quarter this season — 3rd-best in NFL.

Lions RBs have 7 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — T-2nd-most in NFL. The Packers have allowed 9 rushing TDs this season — T-2nd-most in NFL.

The Lions were successful on 50.7% of rush attempts in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Packers allowed a success rate of 52.3% on rush attempts in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Packers have averaged -0.07 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2025 season — best in NFL. The Lions have allowed -0.25 epa per play with tight coverage since the 2025 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Packers averaged 0.48 epa per play against tight coverage in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL. The Lions allowed 0.44 epa per play with tight coverage in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL.

Packers WRs have averaged 23.8 targets per game this season — 2nd-highest in NFL. The Lions have allowed 14.8 receptions per game to WRs this season — T-highest in NFL.

Green Bay Packers Offense: Important Stats

The Packers averaged 11.6 yards per play against tight coverage in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 3.9.

The Packers have a third down conversion rate of 16% on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Packers have averaged -0.07 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.48.

The Packers have averaged 6.4 yards per play against tight coverage since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 3.3.

Detroit Lions Offense: Important Stats

The Lions have run successful plays on 63% of plays in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Lions have run 22% of their plays in the red zone this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Lions have run 30% of their plays in the red zone in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Lions have converted first downs on just 7 of 16 plays (44%) on 3rd and short this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 62%.

Green Bay Packers Defense: Important Stats

The Packers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 55.7 against play action passes (31 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 98.2.

Offenses facing the Packers have thrown deep balls on just 8% of pass attempts (64/760) since the 2025 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 11%.

The Packers defense has 9 interceptions this season — most in NFL.

Only 6% of the plays run against the Packers have been in the red zone in the 1st quarter since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 13%.

Detroit Lions Defense: Important Stats

The Lions defense has allowed an average of 31.9 fantasy points per game to TEs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 13.7.

The Lions defense has allowed successful plays on 74% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Lions defense has allowed successful plays on 42% of pass attempts with tight coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

The Lions defense has allowed 10.2 receptions per game (51/5) to TEs this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 5.4.

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More NFL Betting Predictions:

• Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
• Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
• Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
• Passing Yards Prop Predictions
• Receptions Made Prop Predictions
• Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
• Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
• QB Interception Prop Predictions
• Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
• NFL Betting Previews: Every Game

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