Packers vs Vikings Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 1

• The Packers are -2.5 point favorites vs the Vikings
• Total (Over/Under): 45 points
• Watch this game on CBS

The Green Bay Packers (0-0-0) visit U.S. Bank Stadium to take on the Minnesota Vikings (0-0-0) on Sep. 13. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 pm in Minneapolis, MN.

The Packers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (+120).

The Packers vs. Vikings Over/Under is 45 total points for the game.

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Packers vs. Vikings Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Packers vs. Vikings Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Packers will win this game with 52.3% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Packers vs Vikings Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Packers will cover the spread with 52.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Packers players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Packers Player Prop Bets Today

• Jonnu Smith has hit the Longest Reception Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.70 Units / 63% ROI)
• Jonnu Smith has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.70 Units / 55% ROI)
• Jonnu Smith has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.95 Units / 31% ROI)
• Josh Jacobs has hit the Longest Reception Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 54% ROI)
• Jordan Love has hit the Interceptions Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.80 Units / 57% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Vikings players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Vikings Player Prop Best Bets Today

• Justin Jefferson has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.90 Units / 71% ROI)
• J.J. McCarthy has hit the Completions Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 68% ROI)
• Justin Jefferson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 56% ROI)
• Jordan Addison has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 52% ROI)
• Jordan Mason has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.30 Units / 74% ROI)

Packers Best Bets:

• The Green Bay Packers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.15 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Green Bay Packers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.75 Units / 61% ROI)
• The Green Bay Packers have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.50 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Green Bay Packers have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.90 Units / 48% ROI)
• The Green Bay Packers have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.20 Units / 15% ROI)

Vikings Best Bets:

• The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+6.90 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Minnesota Vikings have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 5 games at home (+5.65 Units / 96% ROI)
• The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 games (+5.44 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 60% ROI)
• The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+4.35 Units / 33% ROI)

Green Bay Packers: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Vikings

The Packers were 7-3 (.700) when allowing an average of less than 5 yards on first down (T-8th-best in NFL) and 1-4-1 (.167) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down last season (T-4th-lowest in NFL).

The Packers were 8-1-1 (.800) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns (T-9th-best in NFL) and 1-6 (.143) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season (6th-lowest in NFL).

The Packers were 1-4-1 (.167) after a loss last season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .413.

The Packers were 3-2 (.600) when rushing less than 25 times last season — 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .280.

Minnesota Vikings: Keys to the Game vs. the Green Bay Packers

The Vikings were 5-0 (1.000) when not throwing an interception last season — T-best in NFL. The Packers intercepted 7 passes last season — 5th-fewest in NFL.

The Vikings were 6-1 (.857) when scoring 22 or more points last season — T-10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .730.

The Vikings were 7-4 (.636) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties last season — 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .508.

The Vikings were 1-8 (.111) when rushing less than 25 times last season — 9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .280.

Additional Matchup Notes for Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings had a third down conversion rate of just 20.0% last week — 3rd-lowest in NFL. The Packers defense allowed a third down conversion rate of just 20.0% last week — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Vikings scored on 54.5% of their drives in the fourth quarter in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Packers defense allowed scores on 58.3% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 3rd-highest in NFL.

The Vikings were 5-0 (1.000) when not throwing an interception last season — T-best in NFL. The Packers intercepted 7 passes last season — 5th-fewest in NFL.

The Packers ran just 30.6% offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field last week — 3rd-lowest in NFL. The Vikings allowed their opponents to runjust 30.6% of plays in their territory last week — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Packers were successful on just 7.7% of plays they ran with motion last week — lowest in NFL. The Vikings allowed a success rate of just 7.7% against motion last week — best in NFL.

The Packers scored on 9.1% of their drives last week — 2nd-lowest in NFL. The Vikings defense allowed scores on 9.1% of opponent drives last week — 2nd-best in NFL.

Green Bay Packers Offense: Important Stats

The Packers averaged 6.1 yards per play against tight coverage last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 3.1.

The Packers converted late downs on 29 of 283 plays (10%) with 7-10 yards to go last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

The Packers converted first downs on 33 of 87 plays (38%) on 3rd and long last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

The Packers averaged 0.49 epa per play on first read passes last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.22.

Minnesota Vikings Offense: Important Stats

The Vikings converted first downs on just 21 of 50 plays (42%) on 3rd and short last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 60%.

The Vikings averaged 0.17 epa per play against open coverage last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.39.

The Vikings ran 30% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Vikings averaged just 5.5 yards per play on play action passes last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.3.

Green Bay Packers Defense: Important Stats

The Packers defense allowed a late down conversion rate of 3% when opponents had 7-10 yards to go last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

The Packers defense allowed just 8.3 yards per play open coverage last season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 9.1.

The Packers defense allowed successful plays on 45% of pass attempts on contested throws last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 33%.

The Packers defense allowed 0.09 epa per play on contested throws last season — T-4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.11.

Minnesota Vikings Defense: Important Stats

The Vikings defense allowed 132 of 276 (48%) first downs through the air (48%) last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 62%.

The Vikings defense blitzed on 23% of plays last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

Offenses facing the Vikings threw the ball 44% of the time (447 Pass Attempts/1,025 plays) last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

The Vikings defense allowed 0.17 epa per play open coverage last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.39.

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More NFL Betting Predictions:

• Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
• Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
• Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
• Passing Yards Prop Predictions
• Receptions Made Prop Predictions
• Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
• Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
• QB Interception Prop Predictions
• Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
• NFL Betting Previews: Every Game

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