Patriots vs Jaguars Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 3

• The Jaguars are -2.5 point favorites vs the Patriots
• Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
• Watch this game on CBS

The New England Patriots (1-1-0) visit EverBank Stadium to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1-0) on Sep. 27. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 pm in Jacksonville, FL.

The Jaguars are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-135).

The Patriots vs. Jaguars Over/Under is 44.5 total points for the game.

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Patriots vs. Jaguars Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Patriots vs. Jaguars Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Jaguars will win this game with 59.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Patriots vs Jaguars Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Patriots will cover the spread with 53.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today

• TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.70 Units / 57% ROI)
• TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Receptions Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.20 Units / 45% ROI)
• TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Longest Reception Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.60 Units / 47% ROI)
• Mack Hollins has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+8.65 Units / 62% ROI)
• Drake Maye has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.25 Units / 38% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Jaguars Player Prop Best Bets Today

• Parker Washington has hit the Longest Reception Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.55 Units / 51% ROI)
• Parker Washington has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.45 Units / 45% ROI)
• Parker Washington has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.30 Units / 40% ROI)
• Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.65 Units / 30% ROI)
• Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.30 Units / 29% ROI)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Jaguars vs Patriots

Patriots Best Bets:

• The New England Patriots have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 22 games (+18.10 Units / 29% ROI)
• The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Moneyline in 18 of their last 22 games (+17.35 Units / 37% ROI)
• The New England Patriots have covered the 2Q Spread in 16 of their last 19 games (+12.55 Units / 57% ROI)
• The New England Patriots have covered the Spread in 16 of their last 22 games (+10.50 Units / 44% ROI)
• The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 games (+8.70 Units / 23% ROI)

Jaguars Best Bets:

• The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+10.35 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+9.30 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 17 games (+7.85 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.75 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.40 Units / 25% ROI)

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 1-0 (+1 Units / 46.51% ROI).

• Patriots are 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
• Patriots are 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
• PatriotsPatriotsPatriots are 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI

Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars are 1-1 (-0.05 Units / -2.33% ROI).

• Jaguars are 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
• Jaguars are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
• Jaguars are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Patriots are undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .587.

The Patriots were undefeated (8-0) on the road last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .460.

The Patriots are undefeated (4-0) after a loss since the 2025 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .419.

The Patriots are 2-1 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2025 season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .286.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

The Jaguars were 4-2 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times last season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .280.

The Jaguars are 11-4 (.733) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2025 season — T-8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .585.

The Jaguars are 13-2 (.867) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2025 season — 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .730.

The Jaguars were 7-1 (.875) at home last season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .536.

Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars ran just 32.7% offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field last week — 5th-worst in NFL. The Patriots allowed their opponents to runjust 26.9% of plays in their territory last week — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Jaguars have run just 8.3% offensive plays in the red zone this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Patriots have allowed their opponent to run just 7.0% of plays in the red zone this season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Jaguars have been successful on 73.9% of pass attempts against a base rush this season — best in NFL. The Patriots have pressured opposing QBs on 14.3% of pass attempts with a base rush this season — 5th-worst in NFL.

The Patriots have been successful on just 28.6% of rush attempts with motion this season — T-4th-worst in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed a success rate of just 33.3% on rush attempts against motion this season — T-5th-best in NFL.

The Patriots have been successful on just 20.0% of pass attempts with motion this season — worst in NFL. The Jaguars have pressured opposing QBs on 50% of pass attempts against motion this season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Patriots have been successful on just 36.0% of pass attempts against a base front this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Jaguars have pressured opposing QBs on 50% of pass attempts with a base front this season — 5th-best in NFL.

New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats

The Patriots have run 33% of their plays in their opponent’s territory this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Patriots ran successful plays on 56% of pass attempts last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Patriots scored 6 TDs from their own territory last season — most in NFL.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 55% of pass attempts since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: Important Stats

The Jaguars have averaged 1.51 epa per play against open coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.45.

The Jaguars started 28 drives inside opposing territory last season — most in NFL.

The Jaguars have run successful plays on 17% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

The Jaguars have run the ball on 46% of plays (10 carries/22 plays) on 3rd down this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats

The Patriots defense has allowed a passer rating of just 0.0 in the red zone (4 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 104.0.

Only 10% of the plays run against the Patriots have been in the red zone since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Patriots defense has not allowed a rushing TD this season — T-fewest in NFL.

The Patriots defense has allowed first downs on just 17% of plays on 3rd down this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

Jacksonville Jaguars Defense: Important Stats

The Jaguars defense have allowed -0.41 epa per play in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.

The Jaguars defense allowed successful plays on 27% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Jaguars defense has allowed a passer rating of just 2.8 on 3rd and long (6 Pass Attempts) this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 81.4.

The Jaguars defense allowed successful plays on 34% of plays in the 3rd quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

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More NFL Betting Predictions:

• Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
• Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
• Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
• Passing Yards Prop Predictions
• Receptions Made Prop Predictions
• Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
• Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
• QB Interception Prop Predictions
• Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
• NFL Betting Previews: Every Game

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