NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 3 Games

Below, bettors can find my NFL Week 3 Picks Against the Spread based on NFL odds.

Two games into the season remains a small sample. For the first time all year, we have some teams operating in new roles. Examples include the Chargers as underdogs, the Saints as a favorite and a bunch of road favorites.

Accordingly, some of these predictions carry more confidence than others. I’ll outline that confidence level with each pick.

NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 3

Steelers vs Bengals (-3.5)

Pittsburgh’s offense looked anemic against Atlanta and New England. Regarding the latter, there’s at least the excuse that the Patriots played with extra rest.

I struggle to foresee the Steelers offense correcting against a good Bengals defense. Through two weeks, the Bengals rank seventh in defensive DVOA.

However, the Bengals’ normally exquisite passing game has failed to dominate like it used to. Entering Week 3, Cincinnati ranks 17th in pass offense DVOA.

Cincinnati’s fortunes could change if Joey Porter Jr. sits out again. While I hate the underlying data, I like the number better with Pittsburgh.

Prediction: Steelers +3.5

Confidence: 2

Injuries to Monitor: Joey Porter Jr., Michael Pittman Jr., Jamel Dean

Bills (-7) vs Chargers

If you think the Chargers cover this number, you’re basically asking them to score 30+.

Buffalo allowed points to Detroit, but it largely came in garbage time with a huge lead. Additionally, the Chargers have looked horrible on defense against not very good offenses.

Entering Week 3, Los Angeles ranks 27th in defensive DVOA, including 30th against the pass.

While it’s likely to be a popular public side, I predict the Bills cover a touchdown with extra time to prepare.

Prediction: Bills -7

Confidence: 5

Injuries to Monitor: Keon Coleman, D.J. Moore, Ed Oliver, Trey Pipkins, Elijah Molden, Tuli Tuipulotu

Dolphins vs Chiefs (-11.5)

My instincts say the number is a little too high on Kansas City, especially after a SNF overtime game.

Additionally, Miami looked better offensively than its 13-point output suggests. In the first half, they failed to score touchdowns from inside the 49ers’ 10-yard line TWICE.

The rushing attack took a meaningful step forward in Week 2. It remains a negative, but Miami went from a -41.5% rush DVOA rating to a -24.3% rating, per FTN Fantasy.

I hate the defense, but perhaps playing at home provides a small boost.

Prediction: Dolphins +11.5

Confidence: 4

Injuries to Monitor: Chamarri Conner, L’Jarius Sneed, Chris Jones, Caleb Douglas

Lions (-6.5) vs Jets

Detroit is 0-2 ATS, but I question if the Jets offense keeps up at the rate their defense scores points.

New York ranks third in defensive DVOA through two games. They’ve played a bad Titans offense and the Packers in wet weather.

Detroit offers the toughest test for what I consider a horrific corner room. Given Detroit’s metrics – 10th in DVOA, fourth in rush DVOA – the unit could easily score 35 or more.

I distrust Detroit’s defense due to injuries. However, this offers a decent spot with extra rest.

Prediction: Lions -6.5

Confidence: 6

Injuries to Monitor: Thomas Harper, Blake Miller, Tate Ratledge

Browns vs Panthers (-3)

This game offers one of my favorite predictions for the week. As outlined in my NFL Week 3 Picks, I prefer the Browns to cover as home underdogs.

Most will look at this line and say, “Panthers under a field goal off a blowout win, let’s lay the points.” But I don’t trust Bryce Young against a defense that has played better at home.

Carolina remains without many key offensive linemen. Cleveland put forth a better defensive effort in Week 2 against Tampa Bay compared to Week 1:

• Week 1: 34.6% defensive DVOA, 80.3% pass defense DVOA
• Week 2: -7.8% defensive DVOA, -26.3% pass defense DVOA

Prediction: Browns +3

Confidence: 8

Injuries to Monitor: Tyson Campbell, Grant Delpit, Mason Graham, Nick Scott, Devin Lloyd, Jalen Coker, Jaelan Phillips

Jaguars (-3) vs Patriots

Drake Maye has struggled in two games against Seattle and Pittsburgh. Turnovers hurt him in the first while A.J. Brown’s absence likely contributed to bad play in the second.

I have no interest in laying a field goal with Jacksonville, though. In Week 2, the defense allowed a 64.4% pass defense DVOA rating against an up-and-down Broncos offense.

Those interested in New England likely assume a good bounce-back effort from Maye. Those interested in Jacksonville likely believe the Patriots’ passing offense continues to struggle.

Personally, I like the number better on New England. If the line was two, you could probably talk me into the other side.

Prediction: Patriots +3

Confidence: 4

Injuries to Monitor: Jakobi Meyers, Cole Van Lanen, Robert Hainsey, Dre’Mont Jones, Craig Woodson

Commanders vs Seahawks (-7)

Marcus Mariota will start for Washington. A bigger question is how on earth the defense holds up against Seattle’s passing game.

Seattle ranks third in pass offense DVOA. Washington ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA. When these teams met last season, the Seahawks scored 38 points.

Unsurprisingly, bettors want no part of the Commanders to cover. But with Seattle facing continued absences in the secondary, I could maybe see a backdoor cover.

Prediction: Commanders +7

Confidence: 5

Injuries to Monitor: Ty Okada, Jadarian Price

Colts vs Texans (-3)

Houston finished as an unlucky side in Week 2, largely in terms of margin. On offense, the Texans failed to convert any of their four red zone chances into touchdowns.

What worries me, though, is that the Colts are running the ball very well. Through two games, Indianapolis ranks third in rush offense DVOA, per FTN Fantasy.

Houston has largely struggled to defend the pass, ranking ninth in rush defense DVOA. But last year, the Colts played very well at home, despite a 20-16 loss.

My prediction here is the Colts +3. However, I want to take it a step further and predict the Colts Win the AFC South.

Prediction: Colts +3

Confidence: 6

Injuries to Monitor: Charvarius Ward, Nico Collins, Ed Ingram, Trent Brown

Giants (-3) vs Titans

Jaxson Dart may be done for the season. At minimum, he’s going to miss this game with the Giants facing a short week.

Last week, Tennessee ran the ball very well against the Eagles. In general, the offense jumped from a -37.9% DVOA rating against the Jets to a +13.5% against Philly.

New York, albeit against two good offenses, has struggled. But the defense may also have to contend with Brian Burns’ absence.

As long as this stays on or above a key number, I predict the Titans cover at minimum.

Prediction: Titans +3

Confidence: 7

Injuries to Monitor: Brian Burns, Deonte Banks, Malik Nabers, Tyler Nubin, Andrew Thomas, Tyjae Spears, Tony Pollard, Cordale Flott

49ers (-8.5) vs Cardinals

San Francisco should score on the Cardinals defense on Sunday. Key to the spread is whether the 49ers defense holds up against Arizona’s volatile offense.

I can argue San Francisco’s defense looks better than its true quality. Week 1 against the Rams in Melbourne came with LA flying in late. Then, they played the Dolphins.

Arizona struggled against Seattle, but the offense moved the ball well against the Chargers. From a personnel standpoint, I rate the 49ers’ unit closer to the Chargers.

Prediction: Cardinals +8.5

Confidence: 4

Injuries to Monitor: Nick Bosa, Mike Evans, Demarcus Robinson, Max Melton, Garrett Williams

Buccaneers vs Vikings (-1.5)

Minnesota beat the Bears in Week 2 largely through turnover luck. If the Bears don’t fumble at the Vikings’ one-yard line, the spread here could look different.

Baker Mayfield has struggled in two games. However, the Bucs rank ninth in rush offense DVOA.

Minnesota ranks second on defense, but it allowed good results from the Bears outside turnovers. Additionally, I don’t trust Kyler Murray to exploit Tampa Bay’s secondary.

Excluding turnovers, the Bucs rank 12th in offensive success rate. I’ll side with the more desperate team as a home dog.

Prediction: Bucs +1.5

Confidence: 6

Injuries to Monitor: Aaron Jones, Jalen Redmond, DeeJay Dallas, Rueben Bain Jr., Josiah Trotter

Saints (-3) vs Raiders

New Orleans is a favorite for the first time all season. I believe they didn’t win on Sunday as much as Baltimore lost.

Tackle Kelvin Banks is done for the season. That absence could prove problematic against Maxx Crosby.

Additionally, New Orleans has struggled to stop the run. Through two games, Brandon Staley’s defense ranks 32nd in rush defense DVOA.

Las Vegas ranks 26th on offense, but it put forth a superior performance in Week 2. A Brock Bowers return gives Vegas the edge over a questionable Saints defense.

Prediction: Raiders +3

Confidence: 6

Injuries to Monitor: Travis Etienne, Chase Young, Brock Bowers, Kwity Paye

Cowboys vs Ravens (-3.5) – Brazil

Dallas possesses the worst unit on the field. Field issues aside, I question how the defense holds up against Declan Doyle’s offense.

Baltimore leads the NFL in rush offense DVOA. Dallas ranks 26th on defense, including an 8.4% rating against the Giants. In Week 2, the unit improved to a -10.6% rating.

That said, I’m concerned about Baltimore’s secondary. The defense regressed from a -52.5% pass defense rating in Week 1 to a +35.5% rating in Week 2.

Prediction: Ravens -3.5

Confidence: 3

Injuries to Monitor: Zay Flowers, Trey Hendrickson, Ronnie Stanley, Malaki Starks

Sunday Night Football: Broncos vs Rams (-2.5)

Los Angeles played a messy game on Monday, despite easily dispatching the Giants. Now, they head to altitude to face a markedly better defense.

Sean McVay’s offense ran the ball better on MNF (-13.6% vs. -0.2%). However, it’s to be expected against a horrific run defense.

The Rams will have to run the ball well again to beat Denver. Through two games, Denver ranks 28th in rush defense DVOA.

But with the Broncos getting back-to-back home games against a team on short rest, I predict they cover the number.

Prediction: Broncos +2.5

Confidence: 4

Injuries to Monitor: Jonah Coleman, Alaric Jackson, Nate Landman, Colby Parkinson, Kamren Kinchens, Puka Nacua

Monday Night Football: Bears vs Eagles (-4.5)

As I sit here writing this, I have no clue who is playing quarterback for the Bears. You’re likely looking at Case Keenum behind a good line and a decent rushing attack.

Philadelphia looked bad on defense in Nashville, especially against the run. Last year, Chicago dominated the Eagles on the ground en route to a win on Black Friday.

Will that success continue without Caleb Williams? I’m not sure anyone confidently has the answer.

I generally don’t trust the Eagles north of key numbers, but I have no idea what the Bears look like.

Prediction: Bears +4.5

Confidence: 1

Injuries to Monitor: Kyle Monangai, Cairo Santos, Tyrique Stevenson, Saquon Barkley, Tank Bigsby, Jalen Carter, Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Mukuba, DeVonta Smih