The Rams acquiring Myles Garrett reaffirms my central thesis for LA’s 2026 futures profile.
As I analyzed in Rams Over Under Wins, it’s reasonable to expect the offense to take a step back.
Since 2021, only two teams have produced a superior non-adjusted offensive DVOA percentage.
Those teams saw radical declines the following season. San Francisco fell from 12 to six wins in 2024. Baltimore dropped from 12 to eight in 2025.
Central to how the Rams perform in 2026: Can the defense improve at a faster rate than the offense regresses? If the answer is yes, Los Angeles is a deserved Super Bowl favorite.
Los Angeles spending heavily in the secondary – paired with the Garrett trade – suggests a recognition of the looming offensive regression.
Los Angeles Rams Predictions: Approach Team With Caution
It’s easy to overreact here and assume Garrett makes the Rams far and away the best NFL team.
While it would be foolish to call the Rams fraudulent, I’m here to suggest a cautious approach with Los Angeles.
Should the offense regress, it places a ton of pressure on the defense to perform. Most concerning is the projected schedule for said defense.
Last year, eight teams – including the Rams – finished north of 10% in non-adjusted offensive DVOA.
The Rams play six games against those teams next season: NE, BUF, SF (x2), DAL and GB. Their bye week is negated against Green Bay and Dallas gets LA off their bye week.
Plus, Garrett performed at the peak of his powers last season. Applying buy-low, sell-high logic suggests Garrett regresses from his record-breaking season.
By how much remains a critical question. All I’m here to say is that this was a player who combined for 28 sacks from 2023-2025 before notching 23 in a single season.
Another factor working against Los Angeles? Their lack of experience last season against quality quarterbacks.
Only four defenses played more snaps against quarterbacks 30th or worse in expected points added per play than the Rams.
By 2025 adjusted EPA per play, Los Angeles projects to face nine games against the nine best quarterbacks. Four are contained within the NFC West.
We assume adding Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson will counteract that change, along with improved health.
Last year, the Rams lost 23 adjusted games to injury in the secondary. Only 10 secondaries experienced worse injury luck.
But even if the defense takes a step forward, I’m skeptical enough of the offense that I’m wary about making firm predictions for the Rams.
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