Steelers vs Falcons: NFL Week 1 Odds, Prediction

Below, bettors can find NFL odds and a Steelers vs Falcons prediction for their Week 1 meeting.

Early movement favors the Steelers and the over. Pittsburgh rose from -2.5 to -3 since open with the Steelers moneyline rising from -135 to -165. Meanwhile, the over/under rose from 41.5 at open to 42.5 points.

Steelers vs Falcons Odds: Spread, Moneyline & Over/Under

Falcons vs Steelers Prediction

Based on Pittsburgh’s presumed ability to run the ball and lack of personnel to defend Bijan Robinson, my Steelers vs Falcons prediction is the Total Over 42.5 Points (-110).

This game absolutely fascinates me. Mostly, I’m not sure the odds are accounting for some key matchup advantages on both sides of the ball.

Here’s the biggest concern if you’re Pittsburgh: Atlanta’s blitzing tendency. Only Minnesota blitzed at a higher rate than Geoff Ulbrich’s defense last year, which amassed 57 sacks.

But the Falcons lost a lot of players in the offseason that helped generate those pressures. Four players generated over 30 pressures last year, and none are likely to play in this game.

Of the eight players that generated over 25 pressures, only one – as of this writing – is healthy and still on the roster.

I still assume Ulbrich blitzes heavily, but I’m concerned about the run defense. Pittsburgh quietly ranked seventh in rush offense DVOA last year while Atlanta ranked 24th in rush defense.

Adding Rico Dowdle should bolster the Steelers’ rushing attack, too. When Pittsburgh ran the ball well last year, it usually corresponded with strong offensive showings.

Pittsburgh cleared 90 rushing yards in 10 games last year. Only once in those games did they score fewer than 24 points.

All that said, I question if the Steelers defense can overcome last year’s shortcomings against specific positions.

The strength at edge rushers is nullified here by a strong Falcons offensive line. Plus, Pittsburgh ranked 22nd in DVOA against tight ends last year, allowing the fifth-most yards to the position.

I simultaneously trust Kevin Stefanski’s knowledge of Pittsburgh’s defense to scheme a good plan for Robinson. When Atlanta last played the Steelers, he produced good numbers.

Robinson rushed for 68 yards on 18 carries and added 43 receiving yards on five receptions.

Compared to last year in Cleveland, Stefanski possesses a significantly better line and running back. It should lead to some success for a team that ranked 10th in rush offense DVOA.

Those factors lead me to predict this number appears too low, and that points get scored in Pittsburgh.