Below, bettors can find my two best NFL teaser picks for Week 7 based on NFL odds.
Optimal teaser strategy suggests moving lines through key numbers. Additionally, bettors should look for lines where the game lands within six points of the tease.
This week, I’m targeting two divisional underdogs. Let’s dive into the predictions – odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.
2 Best NFL Teaser Predictions for Week 7
Green Bay Packers (+3 to +9) at Detroit Lions
As outlined in my NFL Week 7 Expert Picks, I arrive at this game selling the Packers defense. The unit has recorded extremely volatile metrics so far and is prone to a blowup against Detroit.
However, I place zero faith in the Lions defense to help the team win by double digits.
Detroit bested Arizona by 24 points before a Week 6 bye, but it won by seven against the Saints and Jets.
While Brian Branch appears trending toward a return, I’m unsure it matters. The Lions’ corner group remains injured and faces a two-headed monster in Christian Watson & Matthew Golden.
Even when the Lions swept the Packers two years ago, the games finished very close. At home, Detroit won 34-31 while red-zone turnovers helped Detroit to a 24-14 win in Green Bay.
This qualifies as the worst Lions defense over the last three years. Against a good Packers offense, I predict the Packers stay within nine.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3 to +9) at Carolina Panthers
Last year, Tampa Bay closed a three-point favorite in both head-to-head meetings against Carolina. My what a difference a season makes.
I place zero stock in Carolina’s defensive performance against the Eagles. The defense enters Week 7 ranked 18th in DVOA, but it has posted high-variance metrics against an easy schedule.
Only one defense recorded greater volatility than Carolina. Additionally, the defense has faced the 27th-hardest set of opponents through five games.
Tampa Bay finished more unlucky than bad this season. The offense posted a superior offensive success rate against Pittsburgh in regulation before crumbling in overtime.
At 1-5, Tampa Bay looks like a bad team. But Todd Bowles’ team has stayed within this number in all six games this season.
While I think a world exists where the Bucs win outright, I’m more confident the visitors stay within this line.
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