NFL Teaser Picks: 2 Best Legs for Week 8

Below, bettors can find my two best NFL teaser picks for Week 8 based on NFL odds.

Optimal teaser strategy suggests moving lines through key numbers. Additionally, bettors should look for lines where the game lands within six points of the tease.

This week, I’m targeting two divisional underdogs. Let’s dive into the predictions – odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.

2 Best NFL Teaser Predictions for Week 8

New England Patriots (-7 to -1) at Miami Dolphins

Early support favored Miami, which opened as a 7.5-point home underdog at BetMGM. Maybe the offense does enough to cover, but I’ll be stunned if they emerge with another win.

In Week 7, the Dolphins captured one of the more unlikely victories. The Jets missed a field goal and turned the ball over at Miami’s 15-yard line in a 28-25 defeat.

Underlying metrics suggested the Jets completely dominated the game. The Jets recorded 7.1 yards per play against Miami, including 5.1 yards per rush!

Most insane about the Jets-Dolphins game? Geno Smith averaged more yards per pass than Joe Burrow did in Week 5 against Miami.

New England gets extra rest to prepare for the Dolphins after losing in Chicago last Thursday. If Smith’s performance is any indicator, Drake Maye should light up this defense.

Since Week 4, Maye leads the NFL in adjusted EPA per play while ranking third in success rate.

That leads me to predict the Patriots offer decent teaser viability based on key numbers.

Cleveland Browns (+3.5 to +9.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

This line strikes me as super fishy. Cleveland won and covered as three-point home underdogs in Week 4 as the Steelers traveled on short rest.

Now the Browns get the Steelers in another advantageous spot. Pittsburgh returns home from Paris with no bye in between, whereas the Browns face a second straight road game.

One would think that, with both teams off wins, this spread would have been bigger. It leaves me to consider the Browns in a teaser rather than considering them ATS.

The case for Cleveland is that the market fails to realize how dominant Todd Monken’s group looked against Tennessee. As road favorites, the Browns posted a +16% net success rate.

Cleveland needed a last-second field goal to win, but the Titans scored a touchdown off a turnover at the Browns’ 24-yard line.

Pittsburgh has covered this number once all year. It came in Week 5 against the Colts, who played following a London game. The Steelers also needed two 50+ yard scores to win.

The Steelers’ defense continues to surrender yards at a high frequency. Excluding turnovers, Patrick Graham’s unit ranks 10th in defensive success rate.

The unit drops to 16th if you take out Week 1 vs. Cooper Rush. With the total coming down a point from open, I predict the Browns stay within a possession.