Texans vs Colts Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 3

• The Texans are -1.5 point favorites vs the Colts
• Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
• Watch this game on CBS

The Houston Texans (0-2-0) visit Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts (0-2-0) on Sep. 27. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 pm in Indianapolis, IN.

The Texans are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-135).

The Texans vs. Colts Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.

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Texans vs. Colts Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Texans vs. Colts Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Colts will win this game with 54.7% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Texans vs Colts Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Colts will cover the spread with 55.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Texans players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texans Player Prop Bets Today

• Ka’imi Fairbairn has hit the Field Goals Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.10 Units / 36% ROI)
• Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.45 Units / 43% ROI)
• Woody Marks has hit the Carries Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.45 Units / 42% ROI)
• Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.60 Units / 32% ROI)
• C.J. Stroud has hit the Passing Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.40 Units / 37% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Colts players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Colts Player Prop Best Bets Today

• Tyler Warren has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 39% ROI)
• Daniel Jones has hit the Pass Attempts Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)
• Daniel Jones has hit the Carries Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 37% ROI)
• Daniel Jones has hit the Longest Rush Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 39% ROI)
• Keenan Allen has hit the Longest Reception Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.15 Units / 28% ROI)

Texans Best Bets:

• The Houston Texans have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+6.10 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Houston Texans have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.80 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Houston Texans have covered the 2H Spread in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.55 Units / 56% ROI)
• The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.25 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Houston Texans have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.95 Units / 15% ROI)

Colts Best Bets:

• The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.30 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.70 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.45 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.15 Units / 17% ROI)

Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans are 0-2 (-2.3 Units / -100% ROI).

• Texans are 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.55 Units / -100% ROI
• Texans are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
• TexansTexansTexans are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts are 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

• Colts are 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -100% ROI
• Colts are 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
• Colts are 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts

The Texans are 6-2 (.750) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2025 season — T-5th-best in NFL. The Colts have allowed 257.4 passing yards per game since the 2025 season — worst in NFL.

The Texans are 10-1 (.909) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2025 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .587.

The Texans are 10-3 (.769) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2025 season — T-10th-best in NFL. The Colts has allowed an average time of possession of 31 min and 28 s since the 2025 season — 2nd-highest in NFL.

The Texans are 8-4 (.667) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter since the 2025 season — T-7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .496.

Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

Colts are 2-8 (.200) when making less than 7 explosive plays in a game (6th-worst in NFL) and .667 when making less than 7 explosive plays in a game since the 2025 season (T-7th-best in NFL).

The Colts are 2-9 (.182) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2025 season — 9th-worst in NFL. The Texans have intercepted 19 passes since the 2025 season — 5th-most in NFL.

Colts are 2-10 (.167) when making less than 3 explosive run plays in a game (4th-worst in NFL) and .857 when making 3 or more explosive run plays in a game since the 2025 season (6th-best in NFL).

The Colts were winless (0-7) when scoring less than 22 points last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .222.

Additional Matchup Notes for Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are 2-9 (.182) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2025 season — 9th-worst in NFL. The Texans have intercepted 19 passes since the 2025 season — 5th-most in NFL.

The Colts have thrown the ball 10 yards or less 79.0% of pass attempts this season — 5th-highest in NFL. The Texans have allowed just 4.6 yards per dropback on pass attempts between 1 and 10 yards this season — T-3rd-best in NFL.

The Colts have been successful on just 15.0% of rush attempts against a light front since the 2025 season — worst in NFL. The Texans have allowed a success rate of just 0.0% on rush attempts with a light front since the 2025 season — best in NFL.

The Texans have thrown the ball 62.3% of the time this season — highest in NFL. The Colts have allowed 9.4 yards per dropback this season — worst in NFL.

The Texans are 6-2 (.750) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2025 season — T-5th-best in NFL. The Colts have allowed 257.4 passing yards per game since the 2025 season — worst in NFL.

The Texans are 10-3 (.769) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2025 season — T-10th-best in NFL. The Colts has allowed an average time of possession of 31 min and 28 s since the 2025 season — 2nd-highest in NFL.

Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats

The Texans ran the ball on 23% of plays (18 carries/78 plays) in Week 2 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Texans threw the ball 72% of the time (56 Pass Attempts/78 plays) in Week 2 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

The Texans have gone three and out 18 times in the 3rd quarter since the 2025 season — T-most in NFL.

The Texans went three and out 15 times in the 3rd quarter last season — T-most in NFL.

Indianapolis Colts Offense: Important Stats

The Colts have run successful plays on 68% of rush attempts against a stacked front since the 2025 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Colts did not go three and out on any of their drives in Week 2 — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Colts have not been flagged for 10+ yards on any offensive plays this season — T-fewest in NFL.

The Colts have averaged 0.07 epa per play against open coverage this season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.45.

Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats

Only 36% of the plays run against the Texans have been in their own territory since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

Only 36% of the plays ran against the Texans were in their own territory last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Texans defense has allowed 4 TDs that were 20+ yards this season — T-most in NFL.

The Texans defense have allowed -2.41 epa per play with a light rush since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.12.

Indianapolis Colts Defense: Important Stats

The Colts defense have allowed 16.6 yards per play first read passes this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 8.5.

The Colts defense has allowed 7.9 yards after the catch (190 RAC / 24 receptions) to WRs this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 4.0.

30% of the plays run against the Colts have been in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

The Colts defense has allowed 4 rushing TDs this season — T-2nd-most in NFL.

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More NFL Betting Predictions:

• Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
• Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
• Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
• Passing Yards Prop Predictions
• Receptions Made Prop Predictions
• Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
• Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
• QB Interception Prop Predictions
• Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
• NFL Betting Previews: Every Game

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