Texans vs Jaguars Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 6

• The Jaguars are -2.5 point favorites vs the Texans
• Total (Over/Under): 42 points
• Watch this game on NFLN | ESPD

The Houston Texans (1-4-0) visit Wembley Stadium to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1-0) on Oct. 18. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:30 am in London, England.

The Jaguars are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-112).

The Texans vs. Jaguars Over/Under is 42 total points for the game.

Bet now on Jaguars vs Texans & all NFL games with BetMGM

Texans vs. Jaguars Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Texans vs. Jaguars Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Jaguars will win this game with 56.7% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Texans vs Jaguars Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Texans will cover the spread with 51.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Jaguars vs Texans and all NFL games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Texans players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texans Player Prop Bets Today

• Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Longest Reception Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.50 Units / 46% ROI)
• Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.45 Units / 46% ROI)
• Ka’imi Fairbairn has hit the Field Goals Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+8.50 Units / 28% ROI)
• Woody Marks has hit the Carries Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.00 Units / 32% ROI)
• Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+6.95 Units / 31% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Jaguars Player Prop Best Bets Today

• Parker Washington has hit the Longest Reception Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.25 Units / 39% ROI)
• Parker Washington has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.45 Units / 35% ROI)
• Trevor Lawrence has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.15 Units / 31% ROI)
• Brian Thomas Jr. has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.70 Units / 31% ROI)
• Trevor Lawrence has hit the TD Passes Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+5.30 Units / 49% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Jaguars vs Texans

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Jaguars vs Texans

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Jaguars vs Texans

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Jaguars vs Texans

Texans Best Bets:

• The Houston Texans have covered the 2H Spread in 8 of their last 9 away games (+6.60 Units / 60% ROI)
• The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.07 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Houston Texans have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.60 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.05 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Houston Texans have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 away games (+2.90 Units / 20% ROI)

Jaguars Best Bets:

• The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+11.55 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+8.95 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.25 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.40 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+5.10 Units / 17% ROI)

Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans are 1-4 (-3.45 Units / -62.16% ROI).

• Texans are 1-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.25 Units / -51.52% ROI
• Texans are 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
• TexansTexansTexans are 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI

Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars are 3-2 (+0.85 Units / 15.6% ROI).

• Jaguars are 4-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.2 Units / 27.47% ROI
• Jaguars are 1-4 when betting the Over for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI
• Jaguars are 4-1 when betting the Under for +2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Texans are 9-1 (.900) after a win since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .562.

The Texans are 13-9 (.591) since the 2025 season — T-10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .497.

The Texans are 11-3 (.786) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2025 season — 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .638.

The Texans are 7-2 (.778) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2025 season — 5th-best in NFL; League Avg: .556.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

The Jaguars are undefeated (10-0) when allowing an average of less than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .593.

The Jaguars are 13-1 (.929) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2025 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .618.

The Jaguars are 9-1 (.900) when the opposing team commits 60 yards or more in penalties. since the 2025 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .502.

The Jaguars are 2-1 (.667) after a win this season — T-4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Additional Matchup Notes for Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have a third down conversion rate of 47.7% against the blitz since the 2025 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Texans defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 53.3% when blitzing since the 2025 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Jaguars have been successful on just 36.2% of rush attempts with a base rush since the 2025 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Texans have allowed a success rate of just 41.3% on rush attempts with a base rush since the 2025 season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Texans are averaging just 3.0 yards per carry this season — worst in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed just 3.0 yards per carry this season — best in NFL.

The Texans have been successful on just 37.4% of rush attempts with motion since the 2025 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed a success rate of just 37.5% on rush attempts against motion since the 2025 season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Texans are averaging just 3.7 yards per carry since the 2025 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed just 3.9 yards per carry since the 2025 season — T-2nd-best in NFL.

Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats

The Texans ran 70% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in Week 5 — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Texans started 4 drives inside opposing territory in Week 5 — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Texans have not faced a blitz on 3rd and short this season — T-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Texans have run successful plays on 34% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter since the 2025 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: Important Stats

The Jaguars have converted first downs on 4 of 7 plays (57%) when their QB has scrambled this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Jaguars have averaged 0.93 epa per play when their QB has scrambled this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.32.

The Jaguars have averaged 12.6 yards per play when their QB has scrambled this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 4.3.

The Jaguars have averaged 0.77 epa per play against open coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.42.

Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats

The Texans defense have allowed -2.41 epa per play with a light rush since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.11.

Only 38% of the plays run against the Texans have been in their own territory since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Texans defense has allowed successful plays on 40% of pass attempts against play action passes since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

Only 11% of the plays run against the Texans have been in the red zone since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

Jacksonville Jaguars Defense: Important Stats

The Jaguars defense have allowed -1.14 epa per play with tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.41.

The Jaguars defense have allowed -0.26 epa per play in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.00.

The Jaguars defense have allowed -0.21 epa per play on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.

The Jaguars defense has allowed a late down conversion rate of 9% in short yardage situations this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

Looking to place a bet on this game with a First Bet Offer up to $1,500? Bet now on Jaguars vs Texans and all NFL games with BetMGM

More NFL Betting Predictions:

• Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
• Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
• Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
• Passing Yards Prop Predictions
• Receptions Made Prop Predictions
• Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
• Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
• QB Interception Prop Predictions
• Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
• NFL Betting Previews: Every Game

More NFL Odds at BetMGM

If you’re looking for more NFL odds, check out the sportsbook’s betting markets throughout the year.

From futures like Rams Super Bowl odds and Lions odds to make the playoffs to game odds like spread, money lines, and totals, there’s never a break in the action.

Log in to your BetMGM account today — or sign up for a new account via the online sportsbook or BetMGM iOS app or BetMGM Android app — to start betting!