NFL Underdog Picks: Cardinals Test Cowboys in Week 8

Below, bettors can find my two best NFL underdog picks for Week 8 based on current NFL odds.

This season, underdogs have consistently captured unlikely victories. Entering Week 8, all dogs are 34-67-1 with five or more outright wins in all but two weeks (1 and 7).

Past performance offers no guarantee of future success, but here are the underdogs I’m giving a puncher’s chance in Week 8.

NFL Upset Picks This Week

Arizona Cardinals Moneyline (+230) at Dallas Cowboys

This game goes one of two ways, in my estimation: Dallas wins by three-plus touchdowns, or the Cardinals win outright.

It’s a half-decent scheduling spot for the Cardinals. Arizona played at home against Denver on Sunday while the Cowboys faced a road MNF to close out Week 7.

Perhaps the short turnaround leads to some rust from Dallas. Additionally, we saw Arizona upset the Cowboys last year, albeit in a game immediately following their bye week.

On Sunday, Arizona’s defense performed better than its 30 points allowed would suggest. Denver scored two touchdowns from Arizona territory and recorded only two red zone trips.

The Cardinals offense (5 red zone trips) did most of its damage in garbage time. Still, it’s an offense that traveled to Los Angeles two weeks ago and notched a 53% offensive success rate.

Even with Joey Porter Jr. added to the secondary, I still rate Dallas behind the Rams in defensive quality.

Through seven games, Arizona is averaging four red zone trips per game. Much of that output came from trailing game states, as Mike LaFleur’s team managed only one halftime lead.

Dallas qualifies as a step up from the Broncos’ offense. However, it’s a much different situation from facing a better defense operating on extra rest.

Those factors lead me to predict the Cardinals stand a better chance than their price would suggest.

Baltimore Ravens Moneyline (+150) at Buffalo Bills

Last year, Derrick Henry completely eviscerated the Bills’ run defense. Now bettors are getting the Ravens in a potential buy-low spot against a fraudulent 5-1 team.

Buffalo delivered a convincing performance once this season. It came in Week 2 against a horrific Lions defense playing a short-week road game off a home overtime game.

Their four other victories came by a combined 19 points. It includes two straight before a Week 7 bye by six total points.

Voodoo – and turnovers – have helped the Bills surge to a 5-1 record. Their point differential rates the Bills as a 3.5-win team through six games.

Baltimore has consistently found ways to lose games this season. All three losses – New Orleans, Cleveland and Cincinnati – saw them earn a double-digit advantage.

Have they deserved every win? I’d be lying if I said yes, especially against Atlanta. But the market views these teams as 3.5 points apart despite both sitting on 3.5 expected wins.

If Buffalo wins, they likely do so going away. But eventually, the Bills’ luck is going to run out, especially if the defense keeps performing at a bottom-25% level.

In a game lined this tight, I’m content stepping in front of the team with the worst unit on the field.