The Week 1 NFL slate is riddled with matchups where bettors can gather new information.
A few are clear based on last year’s data. For example, I’m curious to see how the Chiefs passing game looks against a strong Denver secondary.
But hidden within a few matchups are key indicators for a unit’s future viability. Here are the two most intriguing ones to me based on current NFL odds.
2 NFL Week 1 Matchups to Watch 2026
Steelers vs Falcons: Pittsburgh Passing Game vs. Atlanta Coverage
Aaron Rodgers struggled last year when he faced any competent pass rush.
Atlanta finished as one of the best blitzing teams a year ago, but lost a number of key contributors to injury or suspension.
The absences could take pressure off a questionable-at-best Pittsburgh line. If Rodgers has time to throw, a case for optimism exists against a porous Falcons secondary.
On paper, it’s a favorable matchup for Atlanta. The Falcons ranked 11th in pass defense DVOA last year while Pittsburgh ranked 22nd in the corresponding offensive category.
The Steelers traded for Michael Pittman Jr. to address the concerns. Atlanta’s corner room leaves something to be desired, and I wonder how they hold up without a successful blitz.
Corner play always rates as the most volatile group year over year. If Atlanta struggles here, it could leave the door open for high-scoring games further down the road.
Eagles vs Commanders: Eagles Passing Game vs Washington Coverage
A new-look Sean Mannion offense could take time to develop. However, it could also start fast against what I predict will be one of the worst secondaries in the league.
How A.J. Brown’s departure impacts the Eagles remains unknown. Last season, the Eagles ranked 12th in pass DVOA (+20.9%) a season after finishing 14th (+19.8%).
Washington ranked 27th against the pass last year after finishing 20th in pass defense the prior year.
This year, I wonder how Mike Sainristil copes at outside corner following Marshon Lattimore’s departure. Last year, he finished amongst the worst slot corners in catches and yards allowed.
Philadelphia begins the season with questions at receiver. The good news is that Washington ranked 32nd in DVOA against tight ends.
This season, Washington projects to face a very difficult defensive schedule. By last year’s DVOA data, only five teams face a more difficult set of offenses.
If they look bad here, it could signal tough sledding as the schedule toughens.
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