NFL Score Predictions: Best Over Under Picks, Week 10

Below, bettors can find my two best NFL score predictions based on current NFL odds at BetMGM.

Here, I’m focusing on individual team totals rather than the game over/unders. Using red zone data, turnover trends and defensive quality, my goal is to time positive regression on offenses.

For Week 10, I’m eyeing a home underdog against a potentially vulnerable defense. Additionally, I’m looking to play a positive regression angle on a slowly improving offense.

Let’s dive into the predictions. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.

NFL Projected Scores: Week 10

Best NFL Over Under Picks This Week

Kansas City Chiefs Over 25.5 Points (-105) at Atlanta Falcons

Assuming Patrick Mahomes starts for the Chiefs on Sunday in Atlanta, my Falcons vs Chiefs prediction is the Chiefs Over 25.5 Points, given Atlanta’s problematic defensive record.

In his Monday press conference, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said Mahomes was “day-to-day” with an elbow injury. Mahomes practiced fully on Wednesday, so I’m assuming he’ll start in Atlanta.

Atlanta’s defense ranks 10th in DVOA, but a big portion of their record came against bad offenses. In recent games against better units, Geoff Ulbrich’s unit struggled to get stops.

In Weeks 6, 7 and 9, the Falcons closed as an underdog against the Bears, 49ers and Bengals. Every single opponent found success moving the ball, especially on the ground.

That’s a problem against the Chiefs, which ranks sixth in rush offense DVOA. It’s a better ranking than the Bears, who notched five red zone chances and 31 points.

Cincinnati also reached 30+ against the Falcons with four red zone chances. A Mike Evans-less 49ers notched only two red zone chances and 20 points, but four turnovers killed drives.

Consistent throughout those matchups is that the Falcons defense allowed opponents to move the ball. Here are the offensive success rates of those three teams

• Week 6 vs Chicago: 49.3%
• Week 7 vs San Francisco: 60.7%
• Week 9 vs Cincinnati: 55.4%

Most concerning about last week? The Bengals achieved a 45.5% rushing success rate against Atlanta. Up until that game, the Bengals recorded a 41.4% rushing success rate.

Kansas City sits ahead of the Bengals both in rush offense DVOA and rushing success rate for the season. Entering this game, the Chiefs rank fourth in rush success rate (46.2%).

When you add in the Jessie Bates departure on Atlanta’s defense, it’s a lot to overcome against a strong offense. However, I become less confident if Justin Fields starts for Kansas City.

Wait for injury news, but it’s a look at the Chiefs’ team total or a pass on Sunday’s game.

Detroit Lions Over 27.5 Points (+105) vs New England Patriots

Confirm the Munich weather first, but I’m going to continue to bang the Lions positive regression drum.

In their last three games, Detroit notched 12 red zone chances against Green Bay, Minnesota and Miami. It includes five against Green Bay and four against Miami.

However, they turned only four of those red zone drives into touchdowns. At some point, the Lions should see an uptick in that performance.

As a team, the Lions average 4.3 red zone chances per game this season. Only Minnesota kept them under 3.5 in a game. Now, the Lions get a declining Patriots defense.

New England posted its worst defensive performance of the year on Sunday against Green Bay. A unit I once respected surrendered 45 points and five red zone opportunities.

The defense also allowed four to Chicago, four to Buffalo and five to Jacksonville. New England ranks 15th in defensive DVOA, but they’re 21st in variance.

To me, Detroit offers a closer comparison to Chicago than Green Bay. The Lions, Bears and Packers currently sit 10th, 11th and 16th in offensive DVOA.

But Detroit and Chicago offer more balanced offenses, whereas the Packers rely solely on Jordan Love. Plus, we’ve seen the Patriots run defense struggle against good rushing attacks.

New England’s rush defense DVOA percentage, for the season, is -13.5% (10th). But against the Bills, Jaguars and Bears, it skyrockets to 13.5%.

Given those factors, I predict the Lions clear this line for the first time since Week 5.