NHL Playoffs Round 1 Underdogs: Which Teams Trailing Can Pull Off a Comeback?

As we look around the state of the NHL’s playoff bracket, there are three teams right now with their backs against the wall. Can any of them pull off a comeback win?

Historically, once a team wins three games in a series, its odds of securing a fourth win and advancing are incredibly high. Teams taking a 3-1 lead have a 325-32 record all-time, while teams taking a 3-2 lead have a 365-94 record all-time. 

That means those three teams in the league have a tough road ahead of them if they want to advance. Here’s a look at who those teams are and their odds to win their series as of April 28. 

NHL Playoffs Round 1 Underdogs: Which Teams Trailing Can Pull Off a Comeback?

Pittsburgh Penguins (+240)

With the shortest lead to overcome, the Penguins have the best odds to win their series. 

Pittsburgh lived to fight another day in their first-round series, winning at home 3-2 against Philadelphia. This narrowed the Flyers’ series lead to three games to two. 

After falling behind 3-0 early in the series, the Penguins have found a way to secure back-to-back wins in elimination games. 

Considering the odds they were facing, it’s more reasonable to think that Pittsburgh could fully pull off a comeback here. Teams that take a 3-0 lead in a series when starting on the road have an all-time record of 57-1. 

39-year-old defenseman Kris Letang is one of the main reasons the Penguins have been able to force a Game 6. Letang had a goal in their 4-2 victory in Game 4 and the go-ahead in their Game 5 win. 

Pittsburgh probably has a better shot at evening the series and winning a Game 7 than the other teams on this list. It goes without saying that Sidney Crosby and the Penguins have been in high-pressure playoff situations like this before.

Edmonton Oilers (+325)

Anaheim has been a solid team throughout the season, but even the hardest Ducks fans would probably have been surprised to hear before the playoffs began that they’d take a 3-1 lead over the Oilers in Round 1. 

Edmonton grabbed the first game at home with a tight 4-3 victory, but the rest of the series has been all Anaheim. The Ducks had massive 6-4 and 7-3 wins in Game 2 and Game 3, respectively. 

Even with the controversial overtime goal in Game 4, a team of the Oilers’ caliber should not be down 2-1 in a series against Anaheim. 

The Ducks are killing Edmonton on the power play, scoring six power-play goals across the series in 12 opportunities. The Oilers also have an elite power play, but it’s rendered meaningless when you’re allowing Anaheim to get a goal in on half their man advantages. 

The other usual problem is the same for Edmonton: goaltending. Head coach Kris Knoblauch decided to give Tristan Jarry the starting duties for Game 4 after Connor Ingram allowed 14 goals in his first three games. 

Jarry was solid in his start, but allowed the game-tying goal and the questionable overtime winner. 

The Oilers have made a habit of comebacks in the playoffs in recent years. They’ve had four come-from-behind series wins across their last two runs to the Cup Finals. 

But this might be a hole too deep for them to get out of, especially with Connor McDavid as a reported ‘game time decision’ for Game 5. 

Boston Bruins (+800)

The Bruins, who’ve made choking a key piece of their organizational philosophy, are behind 3-1 in their opening round series against the Sabres. 

Boston had a lead in three out of the first four games of the series and got completely demolished by Buffalo in Game 4, losing 6-1.  

The Bruins’ gag to end all gags in Game 1 may have doomed them for the rest of the series. Boston had a 2-0 lead at the beginning of the final frame and then allowed three unanswered goals in a span of five minutes near the end of the third period. 

Credit to Hockey News writer Russ Macias for a depressing reminder of Boston’s recent playoff woes: the team is on a five-game home playoff losing streak, they’ve been outscored 20-7 across those five games, and they’re 2-10 in their last 12 home games. 

It’s strange for any team to be that bad on home ice, but particularly for the Bruins, who this past season had the second-best home record in the league. In the 2023-24 season, Boston’s previous playoff berth, they had the third-best home record. 

The Bruins likely have one solid performance in the tank…they’ll probably win in Game 5 just because they’re on the road, but this series will likely not go Boston’s way.