Genesis Scottish Open Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

This week’s Genesis Scottish Open is for anyone who’s ever thrown a party with multiple friend-group overlaps.

You know the type: A few buddies from work, a bunch from college, a couple from high school, and even some of the neighbors. Put ‘em all together and, well, either everyone is going to mesh and it’ll be the shindig of the year or they’ll all stick to their own little cliques and it’ll be considerably awkward.

The festivities at the Renaissance Club – heavy on the NAI, of course – are co-sanctioned by the PGA Tour and DP World Tour, which not only means players from each circuit are invited, but also those from LIV Golf who own DP World status and even a smattering of KPGA players for good measure.

Neophyte bettors might look at the venue’s location of North Berwick in Scotland and assume this is a traditional links course, but while that description is justified, it’s really more of a modern links and has been known to play into the hands of bigger hitters, with Chris Gotterup, Robert MacIntyre, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele and Min Woo Lee winning the last five editions of this one.

If you’re searching for an outright play this week, Scottie Scheffler and McIlroy are atop the oddsmakers’ board, but I prefer the idea of looking much further for some bigger prices here.

Genesis Scottish Open Outright Winner Prediction

Conservative Pick: Kristoffer Reitan (+5000)

I’ve written about this already and don’t mean to belabor the point, but it’s worth reiterating: In the Brave New World of the PGA Tour proposed to begin in 2028, there won’t be a Reitan type of story – at least not in the way that it’s happened this year.

After receiving a promotion from the DP World Tour after last season, he was treading water for the first four months in the U.S. before a share of second place at the Zurich Classic team event got him into a signature event for the first time. A tie for 14th at the following week’s Cadillac Championship again qualified him for the Truist Championship one week later, which he wound up winning. I love the idea that a player can strike while the proverbial (and literal) irons are hot and essentially promote himself through something less than just winning a few second-tier events.

Anyway, now that Reitan is part of the in-crowd, he’s shown exactly what we saw on a smaller scale during his DP World days – a lower floor than some players of the same talent level, but a much higher ceiling. In other words, when he’s good, he can be really good. That alone has me playing him for a second victory at a place where he was T-13 in his first-ever start last year.

Aggressive Pick: Aldrich Potgieter (+17500)

I’ll admit it: While most were marveling last year at the youngster who mashes it as far as anyone in the professional ranks, I saw a player who was too inconsistent in every other part of his game to become a serious threat on a regular basis. While I don’t necessarily want a mulligan on that take, I will quickly point out that he’s in the process of improving in every other area.

Not that Potgieter is going to be confused for Scottie Scheffler anytime soon, but with his prodigious length, he only needs to be something a bit better than average on certain courses like this one, where power is a decided advantage. In his past five starts prior to last week’s John Deere Classic, he was not only positive strokes gained off the tee, but on approach three times (and barely negative in the other two) and with the putter all five, which helps explain why and how he claimed three top-25s and nothing worse than 48th in those appearances.

That might not suggest he’s about to knock on the door of a title contention, but much as with Reitan, I like the idea of playing a guy with a high ceiling in the outright market, then backing it up with some more conservative bets elsewhere. This is exactly the type of longshot play I prefer – a big number with some win equity if he reaches his full upside. Oh, and if 175/1 isn’t long enough for you, recent U.S. Senior Open champion Padraig Harrington probably won’t win again, but he’s 600/1 this week, which might be worth a buck or two.

Genesis Scottish Open Top-5 Prediction

Conservative Picks: Tyrrell Hatton (+500) and Robert MacIntyre (+550)

In the four years since this became a PGA Tour co-sanctioned event, two of the winners have been American (Xander Schauffele in 2022 and Chris Gotterup last year), which doesn’t exactly suggest we should only favor the international players. That said, I have believed during this time that it’s a good spot to back those who might enjoy some home cooking – even if that home cooking is quite literally haggis.

No matter what you think of LIV Golf, you’ll have to admit that it feels weird to have Hatton (not to mention Jon Rahm, David Puig, Victor Perez and even Patrick Reed, who’s still serving a PGA Tour suspension) competing in this field based on DP World Tour eligibility, which could make a potential Sunday trophy ceremony – and all of the ensuing social media posts! — extremely awkward.

Hatton won the most recent LIV start, was T-7 at the U.S. Open and has been top-25 in each of his four career starts at the Renaissance Club. If you enjoy playing narratives solely as an agent of chaos, this is the one to root for this week. The runner-up in 2023 and winner the following year, MacIntyre hasn’t hidden the idea that he likes being at home in Oban a lot more than being on this side of the pond. Nothing wrong with that, as it should see him again fully motivated to play his best in front of his biggest cheering section.

That notion alone wouldn’t have had me backing him just a month ago, when he was mired in a six-event drought which saw him miss three cuts and fail to finish inside the top-40, but a pair of top-15s in his last three – with solid play in each category across the board – should time out nicely for a return back to Scotland.

Aggressive Pick: Kurt Kitayama (+800)

For those who solely examine the relevant stats each week, it’s gotta be difficult to pass up Kitayama, whose analytics alone would have you thinking he’s much better than a two-time PGA Tour winner ranked outside the top-30 in the world. He’s now gained strokes both off the tee and with the irons in each of his last eight starts and while three top-10s and six top-25s during that time suggests a high floor, it’s a bit curious that he hasn’t finished better than a share of eighth place.

Some of that can be explained away by an inconsistent putter, but prior to his last two starts, it really wasn’t bad. Perhaps it all just means he’s due for a spike week and at a place where he was runner-up four years ago, this could be yet another title contention.

Genesis Scottish Open Top-10 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Xander Schauffele (+175)

The only reason Kitayama didn’t win that 2022 edition of this event is because his buddy Schauffele beat him by a stroke, which doesn’t feel like a proper trade-off from giving him that Quadzilla nickname. It’s been a weird season for Xander, who’s played at his usual extremely high level, yet hasn’t seriously contended for a title since the Florida Swing.

The results alone have us collectively wondering whether a guy who was a no-doubt-about-it top-three player in the world when he won two majors in 2024 is still a top-fiver – or even top-10. Personally, I’d still put him firmly inside my own top-five, though there are plenty of names which could state their case. It might take a win – or a few close calls – for some observers to join me in this take, but this could be a big fortnight for Schauffele, who’s won each of these tournaments in the past.

Aggressive Picks: Eugenio Chacarra (+700) and Angel Ayora (+850)

Chacarra has five top-10s on the DP World Tour this season and already has enough points that he’ll qualify for PGA Tour status next year. Ayora has five top-10s on the DP World Tour this season and ranks 10 spots below the cutoff to receive such membership. Not all top-10s are created equally, of course, and Chacarra’s recent back-to-back victories vaulted him way up this list, whereas Ayora’s struggles to claim even just a first career DP World title have fallen short during each of his many contentions.

There are some similarities in their games, though some differences in what their very near futures might hold, but it’s undeniable that each wants to show off their stuff against some of the PGA Tour’s best players and those high floors throughout the season might not stop just because of the stiffer competition.

Genesis Scottish Open Top-20 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Wyndham Clark (+110)

I don’t agree with most of what Jordan Spieth said last week in reference to boisterous spectators at golf tournaments – especially around Clark at last month’s U.S. Open – but at the very least, it’s a fascinating conversation. “I do think that betting in golf is something that’s going to have to be tackled here soon,” he said before the John Deere, “because I don’t know how much of, say, the Wyndham scenario was the fact that it was enticing to bet the field versus Wyndham on Sunday in a legalized betting state, and you could have had people out there that essentially, you know, have $100 to $10,000, depending on who it is, on the field versus somebody else.”

OK, a couple of things in response: First, I think the jeers toward Clark during that final round were a combination of the fans not wanting to see a wire-to-wire winner run away with the proceedings, a desire to witness playing partner Scottie Scheffler set history with the career slam, an acknowledgement of Clark’s behavior in the Oakmont locker room one year earlier and simply New Yorkers enjoying a few beverages and wanting their voices to be heard. (Hey, I’m a Long Island native, so not throwing shade; just speaking the truth here.)

Not sure how we’d ever verify such a thing, but I have a hard time believing this chorus was made up of mostly people who’d faded Clark in the betting markets. Second, I agree with Spieth’s assessment that spectators – or even just a single spectator – can influence a result with ill-timed histrionics, but I’m not sure the genie can be put back into this bottle. Should the PGA Tour reduce the number of tickets sold? Should there be one security officer for every 10 people on-site?

Policing such violators isn’t as logistically possible as some would like to believe and even if that happens more frequently, the penalty for a mid-backswing scream on the 18th hole probably won’t be enough to deter anyone. It’s easy enough for Spieth to insist that this issue must “be tackled here soon,” and it’s impossible to conclude that he’s not preemptively correct, but I’ve yet to hear any perfect solutions to this potential problem.

Whatever the case, Clark will undoubtedly receive a warmer reception overseas, where he’s played some terrific golf recently. Not only is he riding a heater right now, with two wins, four top-fives and nothing worse than T-11 in his last five starts, but this week he’ll return to a place where he’s been top-25 in each of the last four years, including a T-11 last year.

Aggressive Pick: Ryan Fox (+350)

About a month ago, I delved into the strokes gained statistics to uncover which players are doing everything well – or at least better than average. Most of the names on the list of those 15 at the time who were positive in the four major categories wouldn’t be a surprise; of those who were, Jordan Spieth’s name seemed out of place considering his results and the same could maybe be said for Fox, who owns just a pair of top-10s one season after claiming a pair of wins.

He’s since fallen just barely below the line of demarcation around the greens, but all parts of his game are at least satisfactory and he’s shown he can do some damage overseas, where he played for most of his career before becoming a PGA Tour member just a few years ago. I don’t mind an outright play here at +10000 – or a finishing position ladder – but I’ll take him for a top-20 at a place where he’s 4-for-4 making the cut and was T-12 just three years ago.

Genesis Scottish Open Top-40 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Jordan Smith (+150)

Don’t read this one quickly and think I’m tipping Spieth – he’s not even in the field this week before he returns to Royal Birkdale for the first time since his 2017 victory. No, Smith is much like Reitan in that he’s a veteran player competing on the PGA Tour for a first season after getting his card from the DP World Tour circuit last year.

Unlike Reitan, however, Smith is more of a floor guy than ceiling, as he owns five top-25s, but just a lone top-10 so far. Again, though, this might be another case of a player getting back to familiar surroundings, as he’s finished top-25 here in three of the past four years. I love the idea of just a top-40 at a plus-money number.

Aggressive Pick: Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (+150)

Taking a little bit of a flier here, as RNP hasn’t played his best golfer in his first season as a PGA Tour member, but the driver has been very good and the putter has been solid lately, with six straight starts in positive territory. In his lone Scottish start, he missed the cut last year, but posted scores of 70-70, which suggests the performance might’ve exceeded the final result.

Genesis Scottish Open First-Round Leader Prediction

Conservative Pick: Nicolai Hojgaard (+4500)

In four career starts at the Scottish Open, Hojgaard has opened with scores of 68 or better on three separate occasions and his final-round 64 last year – the culmination of a T-4 result – proves that he can go low at this venue. He’s been a bit all-or-nothing this season, with top-three finishes in Phoenix, Houston and Charlotte, but he’s also missed the cut in three of his last four starts.

All of this checks the boxes for a single-round play this week, though we should also remember Hojgaard’s Law, which states that any bet placed on Nicolai should also be placed on twin brother Rasmus or else you just know you’ll be left holding a ticket on the wrong one.

Aggressive Pick: David Puig (+6000)

The potential is obvious for this 24-year-old LIV Golf regular, but so is the room for improvement. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, of course – if he’d maxed out his abilities at this point, there wouldn’t be much of a long-term ceiling – but his elite-level driver/putter combo has been offset by an iron game which pales in comparison, to put it mildly. He was T-18 at the PGA Championship when he played well off the tee and on the greens, but MC’d at the U.S. Open when his approach play was downright ugly.

As mentioned above, it’ll be strange to see a few LIV players in this PGA Tour-sanctioned field, but our betting slips won’t know the difference. While it’s difficult to trust Puig for a four-round play, I’m very intrigued that his driver and putter could lead to a low opener and believe this could be a smart way to invest in him this week.