How Many Majors Can Rory McIlroy Win?

It happens after every major championship. If the latest winner plays like that every time he tees it up at another major, we surmise, then he’s going to claim a lot more of these titles in the future.

Recency bias is a hell of a drug – and it percolates in the wake of the four biggest tournaments annually.

Twenty years ago, observers would’ve believed Tiger Woods could not only surpass Jack Nicklaus’ all-time record of 18, but ascend well into the mid-20s. Ten years ago, we collectively thought Jordan Spieth might’ve been on his way to a double-digit total.

A funny thing often happens on the way to the history books: Winning these events doesn’t tend to get any easier.

Whether a player loses his game or his focus, whether he’s passed in the fast lane by younger peers with bigger talents, whether a bunch of close calls don’t equate to a bunch of wins, it’s hardly a secret that major championships aren’t easy to win and one or two rarely leads to opening of floodgates that is predicted in the immediate aftermath.

All of which leads to the current narrative around Rory McIlroy, who claimed his sixth career major this past weekend.

Let’s admit this much: It’s very difficult to witness Rory romp his way through Augusta National for a second straight year, often impaired by his greatest weapon – the driver – rather than using it to his full advantage, and not believe that his two victories have still left plenty of room for improvement.

If he can win with something less than his A-game for considerable moments during each of the last two Masters weekends, it stands to reason that his best stuff could lead to him lapping the field.

There are plenty of other reasons to be bullish, as well – not the least of which is an intangible that McIlroy rediscovered at some point between those major Nos. 5 and 6.

“I felt like the grand slam was the destination, and I realized it wasn’t,” he said of last year’s victory. “I just won my sixth major, and I feel like I’m in a really good spot with my game and my body. I don’t want to put a number on it, but I feel like this win is just, I don’t want to say a stop on the journey, but yeah, it’s just a part of the journey.”

For as much as we delve into assets such as driving prowess and flighted irons and clutch putting, it’s this type of mindset which might lead to more success in the future than any physical or technical skills.

If you’re expecting – or at least hoping for – McIlroy to approach rarified air, perhaps passing Ben Hogan and Gary Player to become just the fourth player in history to reach 10 career major titles, this mentality should top the list in the “pro” column.

Not to rain on the latest victory parade, though, but the “con” column might be a lengthier one.

First things first: Rory will turn 37 in just a few weeks, prior to the PGA Championship, which is the next major on the schedule. From Phil Mickelson winning that event five years ago at the age of 50 to Justin Rose contending with McIlroy for each of the last Masters titles in his mid-40s, we’ve seen players on major leaderboards in recent years while well into the back-nine of their careers.

Even so, there are only four players in the game’s long history who have claimed at least four majors after their 37^th birthdays – Hogan did it six times, while Old Tom Morris, Sam Snead and Jack Nicklaus won four apiece.

Or think of it this way: If McIlroy is to get to double-digits, he’ll need to have the major championship career of Raymond Floyd, Ernie Els or Scottie Scheffler (to date) starting right now with the odometer at zero.

And remember, this is a player who won his fourth at age 25, then didn’t get another for more than a decade, claiming his fifth just before he turned 36. That’s a lot of prime-year real estate relinquished.

Things happen. Just last month, he was forced to withdraw from a tournament at the midway point due to a back injury. He owns a production company, has plenty of business interests and has become an important and relevant mouthpiece for the PGA Tour during a tumultuous period. Those can all take something out of a guy.

As if that’s not enough, the greatest barrier between McIlroy and more majors probably has less to do with himself than everyone else.

The gap might be narrower now than at any other time in the past few years, but Scottie Scheffler is still the best player in the world and at eight years younger, isn’t intent on giving up his own historic major pursuit anytime soon.

Xander Schauffele is looking to add to his two of a couple years ago. Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau didn’t play their best golf this past week, but are still threats to win any of ‘em. Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama and Matt Fitzpatrick have all won majors and are capable of doing so again. Cameron Young seems eager to become part of this conversation, as does Ludvig Aberg.

Throw in a J.J. Spaun or a Wyndham Clark or a Brian Harman each year – very good players who experience a dream week at one of the biggest events – and the biggest problem becomes math.

It’s a numbers game and while we could easily produce a list of players who might account for the next 20 majors over the upcoming half-decade, there will be plenty of surprises, too.

None of which suggests that McIlroy can’t get to an historic major total, only that it won’t be easy – and in fact, winning four more might even be tougher than it was to win the first six.

It is inherently justifiable to succumb to recency bias. Happens to all of us. In the wake of McIlroy’s sixth career major, it’s reasonable to believe he’ll simply continue playing at this level and winning at this trajectory. The ceiling is certainly that high, but reality often doesn’t reach capacity.