One week on the PGA Tour schedule remains before the Masters, and it will be the Valero Texas Open, April 2-5, from TPC San Antonio.
While not a PGA Tour signature event, several big names are using the week as a final tune-up for the Masters, including Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, Jordan Spieth and Russell Henley.
Going into the event, Aberg, Fleetwood and Henley all have the best odds to win at +1600.
Low scores should be expected, as the winning score has been 15-under or better in five of the last seven years.
The winner of the event will qualify for the Masters if not already exempt.
I will be focusing on a number of metrics this week, including Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Fairways Gained, Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Strokes Gained: Putting, Bogey Avoidance and Par-5 Scoring.
*odds as of March 31
Valero Texas Open Prediction
Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood and Russell Henley are expected to win the Valero Texas Open with a 5.88% implied probability, according to betting markets.
Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.
Valero Texas Open Best Bets
Denny McCarthy Outright Winner (+4000)
McCarthy remains one of the best players on the PGA Tour without a win, but one of his closest calls came at this event in 2024 when he lost to Akshay Bhatia in a playoff.
The 33-year-old checks all the boxes to play well here and has some other solid finishes. He has finished T-18 or better in three straight appearances.
McCarthy also comes in playing well, finishing T-12 at last week’s Texas Children’s Houston Open and T-26 the week before at the Valspar.
Jordan Spieth Top-10 Finish (+188)
Spieth will certainly be a popular pick in many markets this week as he seems to be peaking ahead of the Masters and has a solid track record here, including a win in 2021.
The 32-year-old has finished T-12 or better in three of his last four starts.
The issue with Spieth of late has been making a big number on one or two holes over the course of four rounds. If he cleans that up, he will not only be in contention this week, but also next week at Augusta.
Tom Hoge Top-20 Finish (+500)
Hoge has been successful at the same courses year after year, and TPC San Antonio is one of them.
He has finished T-12 or better in each of his last two appearances here, and also finished T-9 in 2016.
While he’s missed the cut in three of his last four events, he did finish T-14 at Pebble Beach earlier this year, another course where he’s had success.
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