VidantaWorld Mexico Open Betting Preview: Finding Some Good Options This Week

We can watch PGA Tour events for a very long time and perhaps never again witness the anomaly that occurred at last year’s VidantaWorld Mexico Open.

It’s rare enough that the longest and shortest hitters would be deadlocked after 72 holes, but even less likely that on a 7,456-yard course which tends to favor the bombers, it was the pea-shooter who prevailed in a playoff – and only after a tree limb kept him from going OB, no less.

Brian Campbell’s victory over Aldrich Potgieter took place in February of last year, and while it proved that narratives are meant to be broken, it similarly showed once again that the big boys have every advantage here, outside of the random outlier.

On a Vidanta Vallarta course where Jon Rahm, Tony Finau and Jake Knapp have also prevailed, I’m willing to bank on length being a major factor once again this week, with plenty of offensive firepower among my plays.

When I first looked at this week’s entry list, the name Johnny Keefer (+2200) was the one that jumped out at me as a potential winner. Unfortunately, it must’ve jumped out to the oddsmakers, as well, considering he’s priced behind only Wyndham Clark (+1200), Tom Kim (+1800), Ben James (+1800) and Doug Ghim (+2000).

The outright number is shorter than we would’ve liked, but there’s usually good reason for that and in this case, it’s a couple of top-10s in three fall starts so far. Last year’s KFT Player of the Year might just now be finding his groove in the big leagues and he’s got some star potential once it all comes together. This feels like as good a week as any for that to happen.

Personally, I feel like I’m pot-committed on Marco Penge (+2800) at this point and I’d be kicking myself if his first PGA Tour victory happens on the rare week when he’s not on my card. With top-20s in four of his last five worldwide starts and competing on a course which should play to his strengths, he makes a lot of sense, whether you’ve been betting him throughout the past year or not.

There are several cautionary tales when it comes to predicting immediate success for the likes of James and Blades Brown – even some very recent ones, with Luke Clanton (+4500) ranking high on that list. As an amateur, the Florida State product posted three top-fives and a half-dozen top-20s, even starting a few PGA Tour events as the pre-tourney favorite.

Since turning pro last summer, however, he’s suffered a rude awakening, rarely finding that previous form. Two of those occasions did happen in his last two starts, though, as a strong iron game led to a T-7 result at the Baycurrent Classic, just his second top-10 of the year, followed by a T-11 in Bermuda. While it feels like chasing a bit, I’m a big fan of investing in talent and perhaps it’s just taken Clanton a little while to unlock it as a professional. This might be my favorite price on the outright board.

There are players – Ben Silverman and Chandler Blanchet, for instance – who might’ve understood the decision to cut last week’s Butterfield Bermuda Championship to 54 holes due to weather, but couldn’t have been happy about it, as their title contentions still left them on the wrong side of the top-100 on the points list. Taylor Moore (+5000) found the other side of this situation, though, as his eventual three-way tie for third place moved him from 109th to 90th, which very well could ensure his full-time status for next season. Fresh off a strong performance and armed with this knowledge, he should be primed for another solid week.

The stats haven’t looked great for Rasmus Hojgaard (+6000) in his last few starts, but quite simply, this number is too long for a player of his talent level in a field of this type.

Last year, Isaiah Salinda (+8000) finished one shot out of the playoff and while his results have been hit-and-miss since, he’s now gone 31 straight without a top-10, though last week’s T-11 in Bermuda is about as close as one can get. That might also suggest a return to some semblance of form, right as he heads to a course which should suit his game.

Jesper Svensson (+8000) and Pontus Nyholm (+25000) are a couple of big-hitting Swedes who struggle in other aspects of their games – especially in recent months – but each hold some value if you’re hellbent on the idea that distance is going to be the main separator at this one.

I listed Cam Davis (+15000) as a longshot play last week, and he was just four shots back when the tournament was shortened to 54 holes. I’ll categorize this as extremely cautious optimism, but he’s worth a small wager once again this week.

A year ago, Garrick Higgo (+22500) played four fall events and finished seventh or better in each of them. This year, he’s 0-for-1, having missed the cut in Utah, but this is a big number for a player with a high ceiling when he gets it going and some history at this time in the schedule.