Arsenal vs. Luton Town Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Arsenal's manager Mikel Arteta speaks to the players while Gabriel Jesus, right, gestures to the crowd during the English Premier League soccer match between Arsenal and Brighton and Hove Albion at the Emirates Stadium in London, Sunday, Dec. 17, 2023.
(Ian Walton/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 01, 2024, 12:19 PM
  • Arsenal is a -2.5-goal favorite against Luton Town.
  • Arsenal earned a 4-3 road win at Kenilworth Road in the reverse fixture.
  • Why bettors should expect a dominant performance from Arsenal at home.

Following their trip north to Manchester City over the weekend, Arsenal return home for a midweek clash with Luton Town. 

Manager Mikel Arteta’s side won the reverse fixture 4-3 at Kenilworth Road, but it wasn’t without nerves. After going ahead 2-1, they needed to score the two final goals to overcome a 3-2 deficit. 

As for Luton Town, this will mark their second straight road fixture following a weekend trip to Tottenham. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Wednesday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Arsenal vs. Luton Town

  • Arsenal Moneyline: -700
  • Luton Town Moneyline: +1600
  • Draw Moneyline: +850
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-145/+105)

EPL Prediction – Arsenal vs. Luton Town

Arsenal Spread (-2.5, -110)

Could there be a hangover for Arsenal following an insanely important match against City? Of course. 

However, Luton Town’s home performance against Arsenal was insanely lucky and Wednesday’s hosts have made a habit of bullying the newly-promoted teams. 

Luton Town managed three goals in the reverse fixture that contributed to their cover. 

However, two came off corners – uncharacteristic for Arsenal, who have surrendered only 3.5 xG off set pieces this season, per Opta. 

Additionally, their third goal from Ross Barkley was fired directly at David Raya, who missed the ball and let it in. 

All told, Luton scored three goals off 0.5 expected and 0.9 post shot expected. 

Conversely, Arsenal deservedly scored four goals off 3.83 post shot expected goals, per 

Those metrics are indicative for Arsenal against bad teams this season. 

Through five games against Burnley, Luton Town and Sheffield United, Arsenal has posted a +19 goal differential against a +13.4 post-shot expected goal differential. 

Just in two home matches, it’s a +7 goal differential against a +5.8 post shot expected goal differential. 

On the flip side, Luton Town has run really lucky away from home. 

Inclusive of their weekend fixture against Tottenham, manager Rob Edwards’ side has a -15 road goal differential against a -22.9 expected goal differential, per 

Just against Liverpool – the only side they’ve faced this season with a home xGDiff north of +1.00 xGdiff per 90 minutes– they lost 4-1 and the expected goals battle 0.9 to 3.3. 

With their offense due for some major regression – 21 road goals off only 14.7 expected – I’ll back them to fail against an outstanding Arsenal defense. 

Arsenal Form 

March 31 vs. Man City: 0-0, D

March 12 vs. FC Porto: 1-0, W (Champions League)

March 9 vs. Brentford: 2-1, W

March 4 at Sheffield United: 6-0, W

Feb. 24 vs. Newcastle United: 4-1, W

Luton Town Form

March 30 at Tottenham: 1-2, L

March 16 vs. Nottingham Forest: 1-1, D

March 13 at Bournemouth: 3-4, L

March 9 at Crystal Palace: 1-1, D

March 2 vs. Aston Villa: 2-3, L

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.