- Arsenal is a -2.5-goal favorite against Luton Town.
- Arsenal earned a 4-3 road win at Kenilworth Road in the reverse fixture.
- Why bettors should expect a dominant performance from Arsenal at home.
Following their trip north to Manchester City over the weekend, Arsenal return home for a midweek clash with Luton Town.
Manager Mikel Arteta’s side won the reverse fixture 4-3 at Kenilworth Road, but it wasn’t without nerves. After going ahead 2-1, they needed to score the two final goals to overcome a 3-2 deficit.
As for Luton Town, this will mark their second straight road fixture following a weekend trip to Tottenham.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Wednesday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Arsenal vs. Luton Town
- Arsenal Moneyline: -700
- Luton Town Moneyline: +1600
- Draw Moneyline: +850
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-145/+105)
EPL Prediction – Arsenal vs. Luton Town
Arsenal Spread (-2.5, -110)
Could there be a hangover for Arsenal following an insanely important match against City? Of course.
However, Luton Town’s home performance against Arsenal was insanely lucky and Wednesday’s hosts have made a habit of bullying the newly-promoted teams.
Luton Town managed three goals in the reverse fixture that contributed to their cover.
However, two came off corners – uncharacteristic for Arsenal, who have surrendered only 3.5 xG off set pieces this season, per Opta.
Additionally, their third goal from Ross Barkley was fired directly at David Raya, who missed the ball and let it in.
All told, Luton scored three goals off 0.5 expected and 0.9 post shot expected.
Conversely, Arsenal deservedly scored four goals off 3.83 post shot expected goals, per fotmob.com.
Those metrics are indicative for Arsenal against bad teams this season.
Through five games against Burnley, Luton Town and Sheffield United, Arsenal has posted a +19 goal differential against a +13.4 post-shot expected goal differential.
Just in two home matches, it’s a +7 goal differential against a +5.8 post shot expected goal differential.
On the flip side, Luton Town has run really lucky away from home.
Inclusive of their weekend fixture against Tottenham, manager Rob Edwards’ side has a -15 road goal differential against a -22.9 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
Just against Liverpool – the only side they’ve faced this season with a home xGDiff north of +1.00 xGdiff per 90 minutes– they lost 4-1 and the expected goals battle 0.9 to 3.3.
With their offense due for some major regression – 21 road goals off only 14.7 expected – I’ll back them to fail against an outstanding Arsenal defense.
Arsenal Form
March 31 vs. Man City: 0-0, D
March 12 vs. FC Porto: 1-0, W (Champions League)
March 9 vs. Brentford: 2-1, W
March 4 at Sheffield United: 6-0, W
Feb. 24 vs. Newcastle United: 4-1, W
Luton Town Form
March 30 at Tottenham: 1-2, L
March 16 vs. Nottingham Forest: 1-1, D
March 13 at Bournemouth: 3-4, L
March 9 at Crystal Palace: 1-1, D
March 2 vs. Aston Villa: 2-3, L
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Everton | West Ham United | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Ipswich Town | Nottingham Forest | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Brighton | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Wolves | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Bournemouth | Brentford | Mar. 15 | 1:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Arsenal | Chelsea | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Fulham | Tottenham | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Leicester City | Manchester United | Mar. 16 | 3 p.m. | King Power Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 21-7-1 | 70 | 42 |
| Arsenal | 16-10-3 | 58 | 29 |
| Nottingham Forest | 16-6-7 | 54 | 14 |
| Chelsea | 14-7-8 | 49 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 14-6-9 | 48 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 14-5-9 | 47 | 9 |
| Brighton | 12-11-6 | 47 | 6 |
| Fulham | 12-9-8 | 45 | 5 |
| Aston Villa | 12-9-8 | 45 | -4 |
| Bournemouth | 12-8-9 | 44 | 12 |
| Brentford | 12-5-12 | 41 | 5 |
| Crystal Palace | 10-9-9 | 39 | 3 |
| Manchester United | 10-7-12 | 37 | -3 |
| Tottenham | 10-4-15 | 34 | 12 |
| Everton | 7-13-9 | 34 | -4 |
| West Ham | 9-7-13 | 34 | -16 |
| Wolves | 7-5-17 | 26 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-8-18 | 17 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-5-20 | 17 | -40 |
| Southampton | 2-3-24 | 9 | -49 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-13-5 | 46.6% | 4-7-3 | 39.3% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% |
| Aston Villa | 11-17-1 | 40.0% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| Bournemouth | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 50.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Brentford | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 59.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Chelsea | 10-17-2 | 37.9% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% |
| Crystal Palace | 16-9-3 | 62.5% | 6-6-3 | 50.0% | 10-3-0 | 76.9% |
| Everton | 15-10-4 | 58.6% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% | 8-4-2 | 64.3% |
| Fulham | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 7-8-0 | 46.7% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Ipswich Town | 11-16-2 | 41.4% | 4-11-0 | 26.7% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% |
| Leicester City | 12-16-1 | 43.1% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
| Liverpool | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 9-6-0 | 60.0% |
| Manchester City | 9-20-0 | 31.0% | 4-10-0 | 28.6% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 12-13-4 | 48.3% | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 6-6-2 | 50.0% |
| Newcastle United | 15-12-1 | 55.4% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 7-7-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-10-0 | 65.5% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 10-16-3 | 39.7% | 2-11-1 | 17.9% | 8-5-2 | 60.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 11-17-1 | 39.7% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| West Ham United | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 10-4-0 | 71.4% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13-13-3 | 50.0% | 5-7-2 | 42.9% | 8-6-1 | 56.7% |
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