Arsenal vs. Luton Town Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Arsenal's manager Mikel Arteta speaks to the players while Gabriel Jesus, right, gestures to the crowd during the English Premier League soccer match between Arsenal and Brighton and Hove Albion at the Emirates Stadium in London, Sunday, Dec. 17, 2023.
(Ian Walton/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 01, 2024, 12:19 PM
  • Arsenal is a -2.5-goal favorite against Luton Town.
  • Arsenal earned a 4-3 road win at Kenilworth Road in the reverse fixture.
  • Why bettors should expect a dominant performance from Arsenal at home.

Following their trip north to Manchester City over the weekend, Arsenal return home for a midweek clash with Luton Town. 

Manager Mikel Arteta’s side won the reverse fixture 4-3 at Kenilworth Road, but it wasn’t without nerves. After going ahead 2-1, they needed to score the two final goals to overcome a 3-2 deficit. 

As for Luton Town, this will mark their second straight road fixture following a weekend trip to Tottenham. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Wednesday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Arsenal vs. Luton Town

  • Arsenal Moneyline: -700
  • Luton Town Moneyline: +1600
  • Draw Moneyline: +850
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-145/+105)

EPL Prediction – Arsenal vs. Luton Town

Arsenal Spread (-2.5, -110)

Could there be a hangover for Arsenal following an insanely important match against City? Of course. 

However, Luton Town’s home performance against Arsenal was insanely lucky and Wednesday’s hosts have made a habit of bullying the newly-promoted teams. 

Luton Town managed three goals in the reverse fixture that contributed to their cover. 

However, two came off corners – uncharacteristic for Arsenal, who have surrendered only 3.5 xG off set pieces this season, per Opta. 

Additionally, their third goal from Ross Barkley was fired directly at David Raya, who missed the ball and let it in. 

All told, Luton scored three goals off 0.5 expected and 0.9 post shot expected. 

Conversely, Arsenal deservedly scored four goals off 3.83 post shot expected goals, per fotmob.com. 

Those metrics are indicative for Arsenal against bad teams this season. 

Through five games against Burnley, Luton Town and Sheffield United, Arsenal has posted a +19 goal differential against a +13.4 post-shot expected goal differential. 

Just in two home matches, it’s a +7 goal differential against a +5.8 post shot expected goal differential. 

On the flip side, Luton Town has run really lucky away from home. 

Inclusive of their weekend fixture against Tottenham, manager Rob Edwards’ side has a -15 road goal differential against a -22.9 expected goal differential, per fbref.com. 

Just against Liverpool – the only side they’ve faced this season with a home xGDiff north of +1.00 xGdiff per 90 minutes– they lost 4-1 and the expected goals battle 0.9 to 3.3. 

With their offense due for some major regression – 21 road goals off only 14.7 expected – I’ll back them to fail against an outstanding Arsenal defense. 

Arsenal Form 

March 31 vs. Man City: 0-0, D

March 12 vs. FC Porto: 1-0, W (Champions League)

March 9 vs. Brentford: 2-1, W

March 4 at Sheffield United: 6-0, W

Feb. 24 vs. Newcastle United: 4-1, W

Luton Town Form

March 30 at Tottenham: 1-2, L

March 16 vs. Nottingham Forest: 1-1, D

March 13 at Bournemouth: 3-4, L

March 9 at Crystal Palace: 1-1, D

March 2 vs. Aston Villa: 2-3, L

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalChelseaApr. 233:00 PMEmirates Stadium
WolvesBournemouthApr. 242:45 PMMolineux Stadium
Crystal PalaceNewcastle UnitedApr. 243:00 PMSelhurst Park
EvertonLiverpoolApr. 243:00 PMGoodison Park
Manchester UnitedSheffield UnitedApr. 243:00 PMOld Trafford
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester CityApr. 253:00 PMAmex Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Arsenal FC23-5-57451---
Liverpool FC22-8-37443---
Manchester City22-7-37344---
Aston Villa FC20-6-86621---
Tottenham Hotspur18-6-86016---
Newcastle United15-5-125017---
Manchester United15-5-1250-1---
West Ham United13-9-1248-9---
Chelsea FC13-8-10478---
Brighton & Hove Albion11-11-10442---
Wolves12-7-1443-7---
Fulham FC12-6-1642-4---
Bournemouth11-9-1342-12---
Crystal Palace9-9-1536-14---
Brentford9-8-1735-7---
Everton10-8-1530-138 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest7-9-1826-184 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-7-2125-28---
Burnley FC5-8-2123-32---
Sheffield United3-7-2316-57---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal19-13.5948-7.53311-6.647
Aston Villa17-15-1.53011-6.6476-9-1.406
Bournemouth18-13-2.5769-6-2.5889-7.563
Brentford13-19-2.4126-10-1.3827-9-1.441
Brighton & Hove Albion15-16-1.4848-7.5337-9-1.441
Burnley14-19-1.4264-12-1.26510-7.588
Chelsea15-16.48410-6.6255-10.333
Crystal Palace16-17.4857-9.4389-8.529
Everton15-18.4558-8.5007-10.412
Fulham17-16-1.51510-6-1.6187-10.412
Liverpool17-16.5159-8.5298-8.500
Luton Town21-12-1.63212-5.7069-7-1.559
Manchester City14-18.4387-10.4127-8.467
Manchester United12-19-1.3916-9.4006-10-1.382
Newcastle United16-16.50011-6.6475-10.333
Nottingham Forest14-18-2.4415-11-1.3249-7-1.559
Sheffield United18-15.5459-8.5299-7.563
Tottenham Hotspur18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
West Ham United17-17.50010-7.5887-10.412
Wolverhampton Wanderers17-16.5158-8.5009-8.529

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.