Man City vs. Aston Villa Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Manchester City's head coach Pep Guardiola reacts during the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester City and Southampton at Etihad stadium in Manchester, England, Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022.
(Jon Super/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 01, 2024, 12:15 PM
  • Man City is a -1.5-goal favorite against Aston Villa.
  • Aston Villa earned a 1-0 win in the last head-to-head meeting.
  • Two systems say to bet on this side in Wednesday’s match.

Looking to recover from their weekend draw against Arsenal, Man City will welcome Aston Villa to the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday. 

The hosts’ streak of scoring a goal at home ended at 57 on Sunday. Against title challengers Arsenal, they had to settle for a 0-0 draw. 

As for Aston Villa, they captured a 2-0 home win over a shorthanded Wolves side thanks to goals from Ezri Konsa and Moussa Diaby. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Wednesday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Man City vs. Aston Villa

  • Man City Moneyline: -350
  • Aston Villa Moneyline: +850
  • Draw Moneyline: +525
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-110/-130)

EPL Prediction – Man City vs. Aston Villa

Aston Villa Spread (+1.5, +100)

Since appointing Unai Emery as manager, Aston Villa have quietly proved a very difficult underdog for opponents. 

In 23 qualifying games, Emery’s side is 14-9 ATS as an underdog and 10-7 ATS as road underdogs. 

Plus, although I question if the metrics look similar, it’s worth noting Villa bossed City in their last meeting. 

Albeit against a City side without Kevin De Bruyne and Rodri, Villa earned a 1-0 victory while winning the expected goals battle 2.4 to 0.7, per fotmob.com. 

I’ll be shocked if that offensive output is replicated away from home, but it’s quite encouraging that Villa held a potent City offense under one expected goal. 

De Bruyne’s presence should obviously impact their offensive outlay, but I’m unsure if City can create margin in this match. 

Plus, Aston Villa matches two historically profitable betting systems. 

Since the 2017-18 season, road underdogs sitting between 0 and +1.5 are 27-11-2 ATS, assuming the following conditions are met:

  • The opponent’s previous game margin is between -4 and 0
  • The team’s previous game margin is between +2 and +5
  • The previous head-to-head result is between +1 and +5

Additionally, road underdogs that earned at least a point in the previous head-to-head meeting that close between +650 and +1400 are 31-16-2 ATS since the 2020-21 season. 

Just this season, those teams are 8-3-1 ATS. 

Finally, City have played 11 league games this season against sides with an expected goal differential per 90 between +0.5 and 0 this season. 

In those games, they’ve covered this number only three times. Take the plus money on Villa and back them to cover. 

Man City Form 

March 31 vs. Arsenal: 0-0, D

March 16 vs. Newcastle United: 2-0, W (FA Cup)

March 10 at Liverpool: 1-1, D

March 6 vs. FC Copenhagen: 3-1, W

March 3 vs. Manchester United: 3-1, W

Aston Villa Form

March 30 vs. Wolves: 2-0, W

March 17 at West Ham: 1-1, D

March 14 vs. Ajax: 5-0, W (Europa Conference League)

March 10 vs. Tottenham: 0-4, L

March 7 at Ajax: 0-0, D

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Luton TownBrentfordApr. 2010:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedBurnleyApr. 2010:00 AMBramall Lane
WolvesArsenalApr. 202:30 PMMolineux Stadium
EvertonNottingham ForestApr. 218:30 AMGoodison Park
Aston VillaBournemouthApr. 2110:00 AMVilla Park
Crystal PalaceWest Ham UnitedApr. 2110:00 AMSelhurst Park
FulhamLiverpoolApr. 2111:30 AMCraven Cottage
ArsenalChelseaApr. 233:00 PMEmirates Stadium
WolvesBournemouthApr. 242:45 PMMolineux Stadium
Crystal PalaceNewcastle UnitedApr. 243:00 PMSelhurst Park
EvertonLiverpoolApr. 243:00 PMGoodison Park
Manchester UnitedSheffield UnitedApr. 243:00 PMOld Trafford
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester CityApr. 253:00 PMAmex Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City22-7-37344---
Arsenal FC22-5-57149---
Liverpool FC21-8-37141---
Aston Villa FC19-6-86319---
Tottenham Hotspur18-6-86016---
Newcastle United15-5-125017---
Manchester United15-5-1250-1---
West Ham United13-9-1148-6---
Chelsea FC13-8-10478---
Brighton & Hove Albion11-11-10442---
Wolves12-7-1343-5---
Fulham FC12-6-1542-2---
Bournemouth11-9-1242-10---
Crystal Palace8-9-1533-17---
Brentford8-8-1732-11---
Everton9-8-1527-158 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest7-9-1726-164 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-7-2025-24---
Burnley FC4-8-2120-35---
Sheffield United3-7-2216-54---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal18-13.5818-7.53310-6.625
Aston Villa16-15-1.51610-6.6256-9-1.406
Bournemouth18-12-2.5949-6-2.5889-6.600
Brentford12-19-2.3946-10-1.3826-9-1.406
Brighton & Hove Albion15-16-1.4848-7.5337-9-1.441
Burnley13-19-1.4094-12-1.2659-7.563
Chelsea15-16.48410-6.6255-10.333
Crystal Palace15-17.4696-9.4009-8.529
Everton14-18.4387-8.4677-10.412
Fulham17-15-1.53010-5-1.6567-10.412
Liverpool16-16.5009-8.5297-8.467
Luton Town21-11-1.65212-4.7509-7-1.559
Manchester City14-18.4387-10.4127-8.467
Manchester United12-19-1.3916-9.4006-10-1.382
Newcastle United16-16.50011-6.6475-10.333
Nottingham Forest14-17-2.4555-11-1.3249-6-1.594
Sheffield United18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
Tottenham Hotspur18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
West Ham United17-16.51510-7.5887-9.438
Wolverhampton Wanderers16-15-1.5168-7.5339-7-1.559

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.