- Man City is a -1.5-goal favorite against Aston Villa.
- Aston Villa earned a 1-0 win in the last head-to-head meeting.
- Two systems say to bet on this side in Wednesday’s match.
Looking to recover from their weekend draw against Arsenal, Man City will welcome Aston Villa to the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday.
The hosts’ streak of scoring a goal at home ended at 57 on Sunday. Against title challengers Arsenal, they had to settle for a 0-0 draw.
As for Aston Villa, they captured a 2-0 home win over a shorthanded Wolves side thanks to goals from Ezri Konsa and Moussa Diaby.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Wednesday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Man City vs. Aston Villa
- Man City Moneyline: -350
- Aston Villa Moneyline: +850
- Draw Moneyline: +525
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-110/-130)
EPL Prediction – Man City vs. Aston Villa
Aston Villa Spread (+1.5, +100)
Since appointing Unai Emery as manager, Aston Villa have quietly proved a very difficult underdog for opponents.
In 23 qualifying games, Emery’s side is 14-9 ATS as an underdog and 10-7 ATS as road underdogs.
Plus, although I question if the metrics look similar, it’s worth noting Villa bossed City in their last meeting.
Albeit against a City side without Kevin De Bruyne and Rodri, Villa earned a 1-0 victory while winning the expected goals battle 2.4 to 0.7, per fotmob.com.
I’ll be shocked if that offensive output is replicated away from home, but it’s quite encouraging that Villa held a potent City offense under one expected goal.
De Bruyne’s presence should obviously impact their offensive outlay, but I’m unsure if City can create margin in this match.
Plus, Aston Villa matches two historically profitable betting systems.
Since the 2017-18 season, road underdogs sitting between 0 and +1.5 are 27-11-2 ATS, assuming the following conditions are met:
- The opponent’s previous game margin is between -4 and 0
- The team’s previous game margin is between +2 and +5
- The previous head-to-head result is between +1 and +5
Additionally, road underdogs that earned at least a point in the previous head-to-head meeting that close between +650 and +1400 are 31-16-2 ATS since the 2020-21 season.
Just this season, those teams are 8-3-1 ATS.
Finally, City have played 11 league games this season against sides with an expected goal differential per 90 between +0.5 and 0 this season.
In those games, they’ve covered this number only three times. Take the plus money on Villa and back them to cover.
Man City Form
March 31 vs. Arsenal: 0-0, D
March 16 vs. Newcastle United: 2-0, W (FA Cup)
March 10 at Liverpool: 1-1, D
March 6 vs. FC Copenhagen: 3-1, W
March 3 vs. Manchester United: 3-1, W
Aston Villa Form
March 30 vs. Wolves: 2-0, W
March 17 at West Ham: 1-1, D
March 14 vs. Ajax: 5-0, W (Europa Conference League)
March 10 vs. Tottenham: 0-4, L
March 7 at Ajax: 0-0, D
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Everton | West Ham United | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Ipswich Town | Nottingham Forest | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Brighton | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Wolves | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Bournemouth | Brentford | Mar. 15 | 1:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Arsenal | Chelsea | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Fulham | Tottenham | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Leicester City | Manchester United | Mar. 16 | 3 p.m. | King Power Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 21-7-1 | 70 | 42 |
| Arsenal | 16-10-3 | 58 | 29 |
| Nottingham Forest | 16-6-7 | 54 | 14 |
| Chelsea | 14-7-8 | 49 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 14-6-9 | 48 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 14-5-9 | 47 | 9 |
| Brighton | 12-11-6 | 47 | 6 |
| Fulham | 12-9-8 | 45 | 5 |
| Aston Villa | 12-9-8 | 45 | -4 |
| Bournemouth | 12-8-9 | 44 | 12 |
| Brentford | 12-5-12 | 41 | 5 |
| Crystal Palace | 10-9-9 | 39 | 3 |
| Manchester United | 10-7-12 | 37 | -3 |
| Tottenham | 10-4-15 | 34 | 12 |
| Everton | 7-13-9 | 34 | -4 |
| West Ham | 9-7-13 | 34 | -16 |
| Wolves | 7-5-17 | 26 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-8-18 | 17 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-5-20 | 17 | -40 |
| Southampton | 2-3-24 | 9 | -49 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-13-5 | 46.6% | 4-7-3 | 39.3% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% |
| Aston Villa | 11-17-1 | 40.0% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| Bournemouth | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 50.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Brentford | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 59.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Chelsea | 10-17-2 | 37.9% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% |
| Crystal Palace | 16-9-3 | 62.5% | 6-6-3 | 50.0% | 10-3-0 | 76.9% |
| Everton | 15-10-4 | 58.6% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% | 8-4-2 | 64.3% |
| Fulham | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 7-8-0 | 46.7% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Ipswich Town | 11-16-2 | 41.4% | 4-11-0 | 26.7% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% |
| Leicester City | 12-16-1 | 43.1% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
| Liverpool | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 9-6-0 | 60.0% |
| Manchester City | 9-20-0 | 31.0% | 4-10-0 | 28.6% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 12-13-4 | 48.3% | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 6-6-2 | 50.0% |
| Newcastle United | 15-12-1 | 55.4% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 7-7-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-10-0 | 65.5% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 10-16-3 | 39.7% | 2-11-1 | 17.9% | 8-5-2 | 60.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 11-17-1 | 39.7% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| West Ham United | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 10-4-0 | 71.4% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13-13-3 | 50.0% | 5-7-2 | 42.9% | 8-6-1 | 56.7% |
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