Tottenham vs. West Ham Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Tottenham's James Maddison, centre, celebrates with Tottenham's Son Heung-min after scoring his side's second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Tottenham Hotspur and Fulham at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, Monday, Oct. 23, 2023.
(Kin Cheung/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 01, 2024, 12:17 PM
  • Tottenham is a -0.5-goal favorite against West Ham.
  • West Ham earned a 2-1 road victory against Spurs in the reverse fixture.
  • Bet this side based on the return of key personnel.

It’s a London Derby at the former Olympic Stadium as West Ham United gets set to face Tottenham. 

When these sides met last, it did not go well for hosts Tottenham. After claiming an early 1-0 lead, they faltered late to lose 2-1 at home. 

This past weekend, Tottenham came from behind to win 2-1 against Luton Town, while West Ham blew a 3-1 lead at Newcastle on their way to a 4-3 defeat. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for this midweek Premier League fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Tottenham vs. West Ham

  • Tottenham Moneyline: +110
  • West Ham Moneyline: +210
  • Draw Moneyline: +290
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-135)

EPL Prediction – Tottenham vs. West Ham

Tottenham Moneyline (+110) – Wait for Lineups

I can’t begin to describe the difference James Maddison and Micky van de Ven make for Tottenham. 

The pair have both featured at least an hour for Tottenham in 16 fixtures this season. Their record in those games is 12-3-1 (W-D-L). 

In the 13 remaining games where at least one doesn’t play for Tottenham, Spurs are 5-2-6 (W-D-L). 

Assuming van de Ven returns to the lineup for this midweek match, Tottenham are worth a bet. 

That’s because it’s a good revenge spot against West Ham, who won against Spurs without Maddison in the lineup. 

Plus, Tottenham matches a historically profitable betting system. 

Since the 2013-14 EPL season, favorites sitting between +120 and -125 that lost the previous matchup by either one or two goals are 45-27 SU, assuming the opponent played on the road in their previous game. 

Shrink the sample down to games in which the favorite was at home in their previous game and it becomes 34-19 SU, including 5-2 this season. 

Another system fits this game. 

Fading dogs who allowed three or more goals in their previous game with a team off a win sees bettors go 130-62 SU, assuming the favorite has a winning percentage north of 50%. 

Finally, West Ham has drastically overperformed this season, especially at home. 

The Hammers own a +3 goal differential at the London Stadium compared to -3.5 expected goal differential, per fbref.com. 

Although they’ve only lost three games outright at home – two of which came against Man City and Arsenal – I’ll back Spurs as favorites to get revenge on their fellow Londoners. 

Tottenham Form 

March 30 vs. Luton Town: 2-1, W

March 16 at Fulham: 0-3, L

March 10 at Aston Villa: 4-0, W

March 2 vs. Crystal Palace: 3-1, W

Feb. 17 vs. Wolves: 1-2, L

Feb. 10 vs. Brighton: 2-1, W

West Ham Form

March 30 at Newcastle United: 3-4, L

March 17 vs. Aston Villa: 1-1, D

March 14 vs. Freiburg: 5-0, W (Europa League)

March 10 vs. Burnley: 2-2, D

March 7 at Freiburg: 0-1, L (Europa League)

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedTottenhamApr. 137:30 AMSt. James' Park
BrentfordSheffield UnitedApr. 1310:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
BurnleyBrightonApr. 1310:00 AMTurf Moor
Man CityLuton TownApr. 1310:00 AMEtihad Stadium
Nottingham ForestWolvesApr. 1310:00 AMThe City Ground
BournemouthManchester UnitedApr. 1312:30 PMVitality Stadium
LiverpoolCrystal PalaceApr. 149:00 AMAnfield
West Ham UnitedFulhamApr. 149:00 AMLondon Stadium
ArsenalAston VillaApr. 1411:30 PMEmirates Stadium
ChelseaEvertonApr. 153:00 PMStamford Bridge

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Arsenal FC22-5-47151---
Liverpool FC21-8-27142---
Manchester City21-7-37040---
Tottenham Hotspur18-6-76020---
Aston Villa FC18-6-86017---
Manchester United15-4-1249-1---
West Ham United13-9-1048-4---
Newcastle United14-5-124713---
Chelsea FC12-8-10443---
Brighton & Hove Albion11-10-10432---
Wolves12-6-1342-5---
Bournemouth11-8-1241-10---
Fulham FC11-6-1539-4---
Crystal Palace7-9-1530-18---
Brentford7-8-1729-13---
Everton9-8-1427-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest7-8-1725-164 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-7-1925-20---
Burnley FC4-7-2119-35---
Sheffield United3-7-2116-52---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal18-13.5818-7.53310-6.625
Aston Villa16-15-1.51610-6.6256-9-1.406
Bournemouth18-12-1.5979-6-1.5949-6.600
Brentford11-19-2.3755-10-1.3446-9-1.406
Brighton & Hove Albion15-15-1.5008-7.5337-8-1.469
Burnley12-19-1.3913-12-1.2199-7.563
Chelsea14-16.4679-6.6005-10.333
Crystal Palace14-17.4526-9.4008-8.500
Everton14-17.4527-8.4677-9.438
Fulham16-15-1.51610-5-1.6566-10.375
Liverpool16-15.5169-7.5637-8.467
Luton Town21-10-1.67212-4.7509-6-1.594
Manchester City13-18.4196-10.3757-8.467
Manchester United12-19.3876-9.4006-10.375
Newcastle United15-16.48410-6.6255-10.333
Nottingham Forest14-16-2.4695-10-1.3449-6-1.594
Sheffield United18-13.5819-7.5639-6.600
Tottenham Hotspur18-13.5819-7.5639-6.600
West Ham United17-15.53110-6.6257-9.438
Wolverhampton Wanderers16-14-1.5328-7.5338-7-1.531

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.