- Aston Villa is predicted to be a 0.5-goal home underdog against Liverpool.
- Liverpool has scored at least once in 33 straight EPL matches as an away favorite.
- My Aston Villa vs Liverpool prediction depends on Liverpool’s Starting XI.
Premier League Matchday 37 begins from Villa Park as Aston Villa hosts Liverpool.
Villa enter Friday’s match in lackluster form within the EPL. Currently in fifth place, Villa picked up only one point out of a possible nine in the last three matches.
Liverpool produced underwhelming results lately, too. After winning three straight, Arne Slot’s side dropped all three points at Manchester United before drawing at home against Chelsea.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Aston Villa vs Liverpool prediction.
Aston Villa vs Liverpool: Premier League Odds
Liverpool vs Aston Villa Prediction
If Liverpool sends out a lineup including Mo Salah, Alexander Isak and Florian Wirtz, my Aston Villa vs Liverpool prediction is the Liverpool Moneyline (+120).
Trusting either of these teams right now is slightly worrisome. As constructed, Liverpool lacks the attacking prowess to take all three points, even as a market favorite.
That could change ahead of Friday’s match. While Hugo Ekitike remains out, the Reds could return the three aforementioned players to the Starting XI.
How Aston Villa lines up remains to be determined. Unai Emery’s side faces a trip to Istanbul for the Europa League final on Wednesday, May 20.
A win in that final earns Champions League qualification for Aston Villa. Accordingly, there is a chance Villa rotates its squad for Friday’s Premier League match.
The issue? Villa can’t put all its eggs in one basket. Emery’s side faces a trip to Manchester City on the final day of the season and can still finish as low as seventh in the table.
Compounding that issue is the total freefall by the Aston Villa defense. Only three times in their last nine EPL matches has Villa kept its opponent under 1.5 goals.
Those successes came against West Ham, Nottingham Forest and Fulham. All three rank in the bottom half of the EPL table by expected goals.
Even Sunderland managed 1.6 expected goals against Villa at Villa Park. The last time we saw Aston Villa close as a home underdog, the defense allowed four goals to Chelsea.
When these teams last met, Liverpool dominated the match. A 2-0 win saw Liverpool post a +0.8 expected goal differential and +0.7 post-shot xGDiff.
Those factors lead me to consider Liverpool as a road favorite. However, if the key attackers remain out on Friday, the match offers too many unknowns to make a confident prediction.
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