- Bournemouth is a -0.5-goal favorite against Brentford.
- The Cherries earned a 2-2 road draw as underdogs in the previous meeting.
- History suggests one side is worth a buy-low bet on Saturday.
The game has little meaning in terms of the final standings, but Bournemouth will close out their home schedule on Saturday against Brentford.
Neither side enters this game in particularly good form. Brentford drew 0-0 against Fulham last weekend as home favorites while Bournemouth received a 3-0 thumping from Arsenal.
The last time these sides met, Bournemouth took a 2-1 lead and ultimately captured a point in a 2-2 draw.
Entering Saturday’s game, the Cherries are unbeaten in six at home and have won four of their last five at the Vitality Stadium.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Bournemouth vs. Brentford
- Bournemouth Moneyline: -105
- Brentford Moneyline: +250
- Draw Moneyline: +290
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+115/-160)
Premier League Prediction – Bournemouth vs. Brentford
Bournemouth Moneyline (-105)
This qualifies as a great buy-low spot on the Cherries for their final home game of the season.
Put simply: there’s a stark contrast between home Bournemouth and road Bournemouth.
With one match left to play, manager Andoni Iraola’s side has a +0.2 expected goal differential per 90 at home compared to a -0.35 xGDiff per 90 on the road.
Plus, they’re a positive regression candidate at the Vitality Stadium.
Entering Saturday’s match, they have an even home expected goal differential compared to a +3.5 expected goal differential.
Comparatively, this is a Brentford team that has picked up results in only six of 18 road matches this season and lost the xG battle at home to Fulham in their last match.
Bournemouth also matches a trio of historically profitable betting systems.
Since 2012-13, home favorites sitting between +105 and -230 off a loss by three or more goals are 64-31 SU, including 9-4 this season.
Since last season, home favorites between +105 and -200 off any loss are 57-25 SU, including 29-11 this season.
Finally, home favorites that closed a dog in their last game against a team that closed a favorite in their previous game are 93-62 SU since 2012-13, assuming two additional factors:
- The team’s win percentage is between 15 and 44%
- The closing moneyline is between +118 and -155
This season, those teams are 8-2 SU.
Based on those factors, buy low on the Cherries and take them to earn all three points in their final home match.
Bournemouth Form
May 4 at Arsenal: 0-3, L
April 28 vs. Brighton: 3-0, W
April 24 at Wolves: 1-0, W
April 21 at Aston Villa: 1-3, L
April 13 vs. Manchester United: 2-2, D
Brentford Form
May 4 vs. Fulham: 0-0, D
April 27 at Everton: 0-1, L
April 20 at Luton Town: 5-1, W
April 13 vs. Sheffield United: 2-0, W
April 6 at Aston Villa: 3-3, D
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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