Bournemouth vs. Brentford Prediction, Odds, Pick

Nick Hennion May 09, 2024, 3:35 PM

min read

Bournemouth's Dominic Solanke celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Bournemouth and Manchester United, at The Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth, England, Saturday, April 13, 2024.

(AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)

Bournemouth is a -0.5-goal favorite against Brentford.
The Cherries earned a 2-2 road draw as underdogs in the previous meeting.
History suggests one side is worth a buy-low bet on Saturday.

The game has little meaning in terms of the final standings, but Bournemouth will close out their home schedule on Saturday against Brentford.

Neither side enters this game in particularly good form. Brentford drew 0-0 against Fulham last weekend as home favorites while Bournemouth received a 3-0 thumping from Arsenal.

The last time these sides met, Bournemouth took a 2-1 lead and ultimately captured a point in a 2-2 draw.

Entering Saturday’s game, the Cherries are unbeaten in six at home and have won four of their last five at the Vitality Stadium.

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s fixture.

EPL Betting Odds – Bournemouth vs. Brentford

Bournemouth Moneyline: -105
Brentford Moneyline: +250
Draw Moneyline: +290
Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+115/-160)

Premier League Prediction – Bournemouth vs. Brentford

Bournemouth Moneyline (-105)

This qualifies as a great buy-low spot on the Cherries for their final home game of the season.

Put simply: there’s a stark contrast between home Bournemouth and road Bournemouth.

With one match left to play, manager Andoni Iraola’s side has a +0.2 expected goal differential per 90 at home compared to a -0.35 xGDiff per 90 on the road.

Plus, they’re a positive regression candidate at the Vitality Stadium.

Entering Saturday’s match, they have an even home expected goal differential compared to a +3.5 expected goal differential.

Comparatively, this is a Brentford team that has picked up results in only six of 18 road matches this season and lost the xG battle at home to Fulham in their last match.

Bournemouth also matches a trio of historically profitable betting systems.

Since 2012-13, home favorites sitting between +105 and -230 off a loss by three or more goals are 64-31 SU, including 9-4 this season.

Since last season, home favorites between +105 and -200 off any loss are 57-25 SU, including 29-11 this season.

Finally, home favorites that closed a dog in their last game against a team that closed a favorite in their previous game are 93-62 SU since 2012-13, assuming two additional factors:

The team’s win percentage is between 15 and 44%
The closing moneyline is between +118 and -155

This season, those teams are 8-2 SU.

Based on those factors, buy low on the Cherries and take them to earn all three points in their final home match.

Bournemouth Form

May 4 at Arsenal: 0-3, L

April 28 vs. Brighton: 3-0, W

April 24 at Wolves: 1-0, W

April 21 at Aston Villa: 1-3, L

April 13 vs. Manchester United: 2-2, D

Brentford Form

May 4 vs. Fulham: 0-0, D

April 27 at Everton: 0-1, L

April 20 at Luton Town: 5-1, W

April 13 vs. Sheffield United: 2-0, W

April 6 at Aston Villa: 3-3, D

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

Home	Away	Date	Time (ET)	Location
Everton	West Ham United	Mar. 15	11 a.m.	Goodison Park
Ipswich Town	Nottingham Forest	Mar. 15	11 a.m.	The City Ground
Manchester City	Brighton	Mar. 15	11 a.m.	Etihad Stadium
Southampton	Wolves	Mar. 15	11 a.m.	St. Mary's Stadium
Bournemouth	Brentford	Mar. 15	1:30 p.m.	Vitality Stadium
Arsenal	Chelsea	Mar. 16	9:30 a.m.	Emirates Stadium
Fulham	Tottenham	Mar. 16	9:30 a.m.	Craven Cottage
Leicester City	Manchester United	Mar. 16	3 p.m.	King Power Stadium

EPL Standings

Team	Record (Wins-Draws-Losses)	Points	Goal Differential
Liverpool	21-7-1	70	42
Arsenal	16-10-3	58	29
Nottingham Forest	16-6-7	54	14
Chelsea	14-7-8	49	16
Manchester City	14-6-9	48	15
Newcastle United	14-5-9	47	9
Brighton	12-11-6	47	6
Fulham	12-9-8	45	5
Aston Villa	12-9-8	45	-4
Bournemouth	12-8-9	44	12
Brentford	12-5-12	41	5
Crystal Palace	10-9-9	39	3
Manchester United	10-7-12	37	-3
Tottenham	10-4-15	34	12
Everton	7-13-9	34	-4
West Ham	9-7-13	34	-16
Wolves	7-5-17	26	-18
Ipswich Town	3-8-18	17	-34
Leicester City	4-5-20	17	-40
Southampton	2-3-24	9	-49

EPL ATS Records

Team	ATS Record	ATS%	Home ATS Record	Home ATS%	Road ATS Record	Road ATS%
Arsenal	11-13-5	46.6%	4-7-3	39.3%	7-6-2	53.3%
Aston Villa	11-17-1	40.0%	5-9-1	36.7%	6-8-0	42.9%
Bournemouth	17-11-1	60.3%	7-7-0	50.0%	10-4-1	70.0%
Brentford	17-10-2	62.1%	8-7-0	53.3%	9-3-2	71.4%
Brighton & Hove Albion	17-11-1	60.3%	7-7-0	59.0%	10-4-1	70.0%
Chelsea	10-17-2	37.9%	5-8-1	39.3%	5-9-1	36.7%
Crystal Palace	16-9-3	62.5%	6-6-3	50.0%	10-3-0	76.9%
Everton	15-10-4	58.6%	7-6-2	53.3%	8-4-2	64.3%
Fulham	17-10-2	62.1%	7-8-0	46.7%	9-3-2	71.4%
Ipswich Town	11-16-2	41.4%	4-11-0	26.7%	7-5-2	57.1%
Leicester City	12-16-1	43.1%	5-10-0	33.3%	7-6-1	53.6%
Liverpool	15-13-1	53.4%	6-7-1	46.4%	9-6-0	60.0%
Manchester City	9-20-0	31.0%	4-10-0	28.6%	5-10-0	33.3%
Manchester United	12-13-4	48.3%	6-7-2	46.7%	6-6-2	50.0%
Newcastle United	15-12-1	55.4%	8-5-0	61.5%	7-7-1	50.0%
Nottingham Forest	19-10-0	65.5%	9-5-0	64.3%	10-5-0	66.7%
Southampton	10-16-3	39.7%	2-11-1	17.9%	8-5-2	60.0%
Tottenham Hotspur	11-17-1	39.7%	5-9-1	36.7%	6-8-0	42.9%
West Ham United	15-13-1	53.4%	5-9-1	36.7%	10-4-0	71.4%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	13-13-3	50.0%	5-7-2	42.9%	8-6-1	56.7%

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