West Ham vs. Luton Town Prediction, Odds, Pick | EPL

min read
West Ham's Jarrod Bowen, right, celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between West Ham United and Liverpool at London stadium in London, Saturday, April 27, 2024.
(AP Photo/Kin Cheung)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 10, 2024, 2:04 PM
  • West Ham is a -0.5-goal favorite against Luton Town.
  • West Ham earned a 2-1 road win in the previous meeting against Luton Town.
  • Why the market is underrating one side on Saturday.

To close out David Moyes’ tenure at the London Stadium, West Ham welcomes Luton Town on Saturday. 

Neither side enters this game in good form. The Hammers are winless in four league matches and lost 5-0 at Chelsea in their last game. 

As for Luton Town, they’re winless in four as well and last drew Everton at home in their previous fixture. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my predictions for Saturday’s clash. 

EPL Betting Odds – West Ham vs. Luton Town

  • West Ham Moneyline: -125
  • Luton Town Moneyline: +290
  • Draw Moneyline: +310
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+105/-145)

Premier League Prediction – West Ham vs. Luton Town

West Ham to Win & Both Teams to Score (+180) | Total Over 3.5 Goals (+105)

Betting West Ham is quite uncomfortable, but there’s an argument to be made that they’re a good home side with proper rest. 

Manager David Moyes’ side ran unlucky in their last home match against Liverpool based on underlying metrics. 

Although the match finished 2-2, the Hammers won the post-shot expected goals battle 2.6 to 0.9. 

The last time they played a home match with at least six days between games? February 26 vs. Brentford — a 4-2 home win where West Ham created 2.4 post-shot expected goals. 

On Saturday, they’ll get a Luton Town side that has earned points in only six of 18 road games and has the worst road expected goal differential. 

Plus, there are a few system matches on West Ham. 

Since 2012-13, home favorites between +105 and -230 off a loss by three or more goals are 64-31 SU, including 9-4 this season. 

Plus, dating back to the beginning of last season, home favorites between +105 and -200 off a loss are 57-25 SU, including 9-4 this season. 

One more — since 2012-13, home favorites between +100 and -199 that closed a dog in their previous game are 51-22 SU in games 32-38. 

At the same time, bettors should expect goals to flow in Saturday’s contest. 

This season, Luton road fixtures are averaging 3.33 expected goals per 90 minutes. They’ve also scored in 16 of their last 17 games irrespective of venue. 

However, West Ham’s attack should do well like in the past against bad defenses. 

In seven home matches against sides 12th or worse in non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes, West Ham created 1.9 xG per 90 and scored at least twice five times. 

For those reasons, back the over at plus money on Saturday with West Ham contributing most of the goals. 

West Ham Form 

May 5 at Chelsea: 0-5, L

April 27 vs. Liverpool: 2-2, D

April 21 at Crystal Palace: 2-5, L

April 18 vs. Leverkusen: 1-1, D (Europa League)

April 14 vs. Fulham: 0-2, L

Luton Town Form

May 3 vs. Everton: 1-1, D

April 27 at Wolves: 1-2, L

April 20 vs. Brentford: 1-5, L

April 13 at Man City: 1-5, L

April 6 vs. Bournemouth: 2-1, W

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.