Bournemouth vs. Manchester United Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Bournemouth's Dominic Solanke, right, celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester United and Bournemouth at the Old Trafford stadium in Manchester, England, Saturday, Dec. 9, 2023.
(Jon Super/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 10, 2024, 3:40 PM
  • Bournemouth is a -0.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
  • Bournemouth drubbed Manchester United 3-0 on the road in the last meeting.
  • Why Bournemouth should earn at least a point at home.

It’s the standalone Premier League fixture on Saturday as Bournemouth attempt to hand Manchester United another loss. 

However, the Cherries enter this game off a loss to Luton Town away from home. That snapped a five-match unbeaten run in the league for manager Andoni Iraola’s side. 

As for Manchester United, they enter this fixture fresh off a home draw to Liverpool. That’s three straight league matches in which United have failed to win. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Bournemouth vs. Manchester United

  • Bournemouth Moneyline: +138
  • Manchester United Moneyline: +160
  • Draw Moneyline: +290
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-145)

EPL Prediction – Bournemouth vs. Manchester United

Bournemouth Draw, No Bet (-130)

Although United captured an impressive draw against Liverpool, history says it should be Bournemouth or nothing for bettors. 

I question if the Cherries can earn maximum points in this game, but it’s unlikely they drop all three points. 

Since the 2012-13 season, home teams sitting between +150 and -150 in games 20-38 that earned a win by three or more goals in the previous game are 26-14 SU. 

In those 40 games, those home teams have captured at least one point 34 times. 

There’s another system suggesting the likeliest outcome for this match is a Bournemouth win. 

Since the 2017-18 season, home favorites sitting between +140 and -145 off a loss that won the previous head-to-head meeting are 92-68 SU. 

When they won the previous game by multiple goals, they’re 50-35 SU. 

Additionally, those teams have done very well to avoid defeat in those games. 

Sample the aforementioned 160 games, and bettors will find those teams have earned at least one point 126 times and have lost outright 34 times. 

In terms of the matchup, Bournemouth will always be in this game because of United’s lackluster defense. 

Six first team defenders are out to injury, which leaves United extremely vulnerable at the back. 

Even if you remove their last two games against Chelsea and Liverpool, it’s worth noting United conceded 3.2 expected goals to Brentford in a recent road fixture. 

Bournemouth also possess a strong home defense, as only seven teams have surrendered fewer expected goals on their home turf, per 

United have also run really lucky away from home – they own a -2 road goal differential compared to a -11 expected goal differential – so I’ll take the Cherries to do no worse than a defeat. 

Bournemouth Form 

April 6 at Luton Town: 1-2, L

April 2 vs. Crystal Palace: 1-0, W

March 30 vs. Everton: 2-1, W

March 13 vs. Luton Town: 4-3, W

March 9 vs. Sheffield United: 2-2, D

Manchester United Form

April 7 vs. Liverpool: 2-2, D

April 4 at Chelsea: 3-4, L

March 30 at Brentford: 1-1, D

March 17 vs. Liverpool: 4-3, W (FA Cup, AET)

March 9 vs. Everton: 2-0, W

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.