- Bournemouth is a -0.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
- Bournemouth drubbed Manchester United 3-0 on the road in the last meeting.
- Why Bournemouth should earn at least a point at home.
It’s the standalone Premier League fixture on Saturday as Bournemouth attempt to hand Manchester United another loss.
However, the Cherries enter this game off a loss to Luton Town away from home. That snapped a five-match unbeaten run in the league for manager Andoni Iraola’s side.
As for Manchester United, they enter this fixture fresh off a home draw to Liverpool. That’s three straight league matches in which United have failed to win.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Bournemouth vs. Manchester United
- Bournemouth Moneyline: +138
- Manchester United Moneyline: +160
- Draw Moneyline: +290
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-145)
EPL Prediction – Bournemouth vs. Manchester United
Bournemouth Draw, No Bet (-130)
Although United captured an impressive draw against Liverpool, history says it should be Bournemouth or nothing for bettors.
I question if the Cherries can earn maximum points in this game, but it’s unlikely they drop all three points.
Since the 2012-13 season, home teams sitting between +150 and -150 in games 20-38 that earned a win by three or more goals in the previous game are 26-14 SU.
In those 40 games, those home teams have captured at least one point 34 times.
There’s another system suggesting the likeliest outcome for this match is a Bournemouth win.
Since the 2017-18 season, home favorites sitting between +140 and -145 off a loss that won the previous head-to-head meeting are 92-68 SU.
When they won the previous game by multiple goals, they’re 50-35 SU.
Additionally, those teams have done very well to avoid defeat in those games.
Sample the aforementioned 160 games, and bettors will find those teams have earned at least one point 126 times and have lost outright 34 times.
In terms of the matchup, Bournemouth will always be in this game because of United’s lackluster defense.
Six first team defenders are out to injury, which leaves United extremely vulnerable at the back.
Even if you remove their last two games against Chelsea and Liverpool, it’s worth noting United conceded 3.2 expected goals to Brentford in a recent road fixture.
Bournemouth also possess a strong home defense, as only seven teams have surrendered fewer expected goals on their home turf, per fbref.com.
United have also run really lucky away from home – they own a -2 road goal differential compared to a -11 expected goal differential – so I’ll take the Cherries to do no worse than a defeat.
Bournemouth Form
April 6 at Luton Town: 1-2, L
April 2 vs. Crystal Palace: 1-0, W
March 30 vs. Everton: 2-1, W
March 13 vs. Luton Town: 4-3, W
March 9 vs. Sheffield United: 2-2, D
Manchester United Form
April 7 vs. Liverpool: 2-2, D
April 4 at Chelsea: 3-4, L
March 30 at Brentford: 1-1, D
March 17 vs. Liverpool: 4-3, W (FA Cup, AET)
March 9 vs. Everton: 2-0, W
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | May. 16 | 2:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Chelsea | Manchester United | May. 16 | 3:15 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Southampton | May. 18 | 7 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Nottingham Forest | May. 18 | 9:15 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Leicester City | Ipswich Town | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Brentford | Fulham | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Arsenal | Newcastle United | May. 18 | 11:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Liverpool | May. 19 | 3 p.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Wolves | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Manchester City | Bournemouth | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-3 | 83 | 46 |
| Arsenal | 18-14-4 | 68 | 33 |
| Manchester City | 19-8-9 | 65 | 24 |
| Newcastle United | 19-6-10 | 63 | 21 |
| Chelsea | 18-9-8 | 63 | 21 |
| Aston Villa | 18-9-9 | 63 | 7 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-8-10 | 62 | 12 |
| Brentford | 16-7-13 | 55 | 10 |
| Brighton | 14-14-8 | 55 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-11 | 53 | 11 |
| Fulham | 14-9-13 | 51 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 12-13-11 | 49 | -2 |
| Everton | 9-15-12 | 42 | -5 |
| Wolves | 12-5-19 | 41 | -13 |
| West Ham | 10-10-16 | 40 | -17 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-17 | 39 | -11 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 4 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-22 | 22 | -42 |
| Leicester City | 5-7-24 | 22 | -47 |
| Southampton | 2-6-28 | 12 | -57 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 13-17-6 | 44.4% | 4-10-4 | 33.3% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 17-18-1 | 48.6% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-15-2 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-5-2 | 66.7% |
| Brentford | 22-11-3 | 65.3% | 11-7-0 | 61.1% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 20-15-1 | 56.9% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-3 | 40.3% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 19-13-4 | 58.3% | 7-7-4 | 50.0% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 18-12-6 | 58.3% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 9-5-4 | 61.1% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-19-3 | 43.1% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-6-2 | 61.1% |
| Leicester City | 17-18-1 | 48.6% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-18-2 | 47.2% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Manchester City | 12-24-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-4 | 44.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% |
| Newcastle United | 21-14-1 | 59.7% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% |
| Nottingham Forest | 22-14-0 | 61.1% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 13-19-4 | 41.7% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-22-1 | 37.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% |
| West Ham United | 18-16-2 | 52.8% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-14-3 | 56.9% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
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