Bournemouth vs. Manchester United Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

Bournemouth's Dominic Solanke, right, celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester United and Bournemouth at the Old Trafford stadium in Manchester, England, Saturday, Dec. 9, 2023.
(Jon Super/AP Photo)
  • Bournemouth is a -0.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
  • Bournemouth drubbed Manchester United 3-0 on the road in the last meeting.
  • Why Bournemouth should earn at least a point at home.

Itโ€™s the standalone Premier League fixture on Saturday as Bournemouth attempt to hand Manchester United another loss.ย 

However, the Cherries enter this game off a loss to Luton Town away from home. That snapped a five-match unbeaten run in the league for manager Andoni Iraolaโ€™s side.ย 

As for Manchester United, they enter this fixture fresh off a home draw to Liverpool. Thatโ€™s three straight league matches in which United have failed to win.ย 

Hereโ€™s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturdayโ€™s match.ย 

EPL Betting Odds – Bournemouth vs. Manchester United

  • Bournemouth Moneyline: +138
  • Manchester United Moneyline: +160
  • Draw Moneyline: +290
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-145)

EPL Prediction – Bournemouth vs. Manchester United

Bournemouth Draw, No Bet (-130)

Although United captured an impressive draw against Liverpool, history says it should be Bournemouth or nothing for bettors.ย 

I question if the Cherries can earn maximum points in this game, but itโ€™s unlikely they drop all three points.ย 

Since the 2012-13 season, home teams sitting between +150 and -150 in games 20-38 that earned a win by three or more goals in the previous game are 26-14 SU.ย 

In those 40 games, those home teams have captured at least one point 34 times.ย 

Thereโ€™s another system suggesting the likeliest outcome for this match is a Bournemouth win.ย 

Since the 2017-18 season, home favorites sitting between +140 and -145 off a loss that won the previous head-to-head meeting are 92-68 SU.ย 

When they won the previous game by multiple goals, theyโ€™re 50-35 SU.ย 

Additionally, those teams have done very well to avoid defeat in those games.ย 

Sample the aforementioned 160 games, and bettors will find those teams have earned at least one point 126 times and have lost outright 34 times.ย 

In terms of the matchup, Bournemouth will always be in this game because of Unitedโ€™s lackluster defense.ย 

Six first team defenders are out to injury, which leaves United extremely vulnerable at the back.ย 

Even if you remove their last two games against Chelsea and Liverpool, itโ€™s worth noting United conceded 3.2 expected goals to Brentford in a recent road fixture.ย 

Bournemouth also possess a strong home defense, as only seven teams have surrendered fewer expected goals on their home turf, per fbref.com.ย 

United have also run really lucky away from home โ€“ they own a -2 road goal differential compared to a -11 expected goal differential โ€“ so Iโ€™ll take the Cherries to do no worse than a defeat.ย 

Bournemouth Formย 

April 6 at Luton Town: 1-2, L

April 2 vs. Crystal Palace: 1-0, W

March 30 vs. Everton: 2-1, W

March 13 vs. Luton Town: 4-3, W

March 9 vs. Sheffield United: 2-2, D

Manchester United Form

April 7 vs. Liverpool: 2-2, D

April 4 at Chelsea: 3-4, L

March 30 at Brentford: 1-1, D

March 17 vs. Liverpool: 4-3, W (FA Cup, AET)

March 9 vs. Everton: 2-0, W

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

First Bet Offer $1,500 FBO
HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
BrightonChelseaFeb. 143 p.m.Amex Stadium
Leicester CityArsenalFeb. 157:30 a.m.King Power Stadium
Aston VillaIpswich TownFeb. 1510 a.m.Villa Park
FulhamNottingham ForestFeb. 1510 a.m.Craven Cottage
Man CityNewcastle UnitedFeb. 1510 a.m.Etihad Stadium
SouthamptonBournemouthFeb. 1510 a.m.St. Mary's Stadium
West Ham UnitedBrentfordFeb. 1510 a.m.London Stadium
Crystal PalaceEvertonFeb. 1512:30 p.m.Selhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesFeb. 169 a.m.Anfield
TottenhamManchester UnitedFeb. 1611:30 a.m.Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Liverpool17-5-15635
Arsenal14-8-25027
Nottingham Forest14-5-54713
Chelsea12-7-54316
Manchester City12-5-74113
Newcastle United12-5-74113
Bournemouth11-7-64013
Aston Villa10-7-737-3
Fulham9-9-6364
Brighton8-10-634-3
Brentford9-4-11310
Crystal Palace7-9-830-2
Manchester United8-5-1129-6
Tottenham8-3-132711
West Ham United7-6-1127-17
Everton6-8-926-5
Wolves5-4-1519-18
Leicester City3-5-1517-28
Ipswich Town3-7-1416-27
Southampton2-3-199-36

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS%Home ATS RecordHome ATS%Road ATS RecordRoad ATS%
Arsenal9-10-547.9%3-6-337.5%6-4-258.3%
Aston Villa8-15-135.4%3-8-129.2%5-7-041.7%
Bournemouth16-8-066.7%7-5-058.3%9-3-075.0%
Brentford14-8-262.5%8-5-061.5%6-3-263.6%
Brighton & Hove Albion12-11-152.1%4-7-036.4%8-4-165.4%
Chelsea9-13-241.7%4-7-137.5%5-6-145.8%
Crystal Palace13-8-360.4%4-5-345.8%9-3-075.0%
Everton12-9-256.5%6-5-154.2%6-4-159.1%
Fulham14-8-262.5%5-7-041.7%8-2-275.0%
Ipswich Town10-13-143.8%4-9-030.8%6-4-159.1%
Leicester City11-12-147.9%5-7-041.7%6-5-154.2%
Liverpool13-9-158.7%5-5-150.0%8-4-066.7%
Manchester City7-17-029.2%3-8-027.3%4-9-030.8%
Manchester United10-12-245.8%5-7-142.3%5-5-150.0%
Newcastle United13-10-156.3%7-5-058.3%6-5-154.2%
Nottingham Forest16-8-066.7%7-5-058.3%9-3-075.0%
Southampton9-12-343.8%2-8-122.7%7-4-261.5%
Tottenham Hotspur9-15-037.5%4-8-033.3%5-7-041.7%
West Ham United12-11-152.1%4-7-137.5%8-4-066.7%
Wolverhampton Wanderers10-12-245.8%5-6-145.8%5-6-145.8%

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.