- Chelsea is predicted to be a +0.5-goal underdog against Man City.
- Chelsea captured draws in both meetings against City last season.
- City’s viability as a road favorite depends on one player’s availability.
It’s the marquee match of Premier League Matchday 1: Chelsea vs. Manchester City at Stamford Bridge.
City struggled with the Blues last season. They drew Chelsea 4-4 at the Bridge and dropped points in a 1-1 draw at the Etihad Stadium.
However, these sides met in the 2024 preseason with City capturing a 4-2 win against manager Enzo Maresca’s side.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match.
Chelsea vs. Man City Odds, Premier League
- Chelsea Moneyline: +290
- Man City Moneyline: -120
- Draw Moneyline: +290
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+115/-160)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-210), No (+145)
Chelsea vs. Man City Prediction: Moneyline
If Manchester City have defensive midfielder Rodri in the Starting XI on Sunday, I predict they’ll win at Chelsea.
However, bettors should wait until lineups drop before taking Pep Guardiola’s side, which is 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 season openers.
Chelsea’s results last season are undoubtedly encouraging for those looking to back the dog. However, the timing of those matches must be noted.
In the first meeting at Stamford Bridge, City traveled to play on short rest with Chelsea carrying a rest edge, albeit by a single day.
For the second meeting at the Etihad, City played a Saturday match after a road Tuesday Champions League game.
Once again, Chelsea played the prior Monday and thus carried a rest edge.
Those rest advantages are gone for this Matchday 1 fixture, and I worry immensely about Chelsea, who just lost 4-2 in a preseason friendly.
Even more concerning? They lost 4-2 to a City side with no Rodri or Kevin de Bruyne along with a backline featuring zero players that started the last competitive match.
City also matches a historically profitable betting system.
Since the 2012-13 season, August road favorites that earned a result in the previous head-to-head meeting are 60.9% ATS.
When City finds itself in that scenario, they’re 7-1 SU.
Given City’s implied probability comes out to 54.5%, I believe there’s slight value if they include Rodri in the lineup.
Chelsea Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 11 vs. Inter: 1-1, D (Friendly)
- Aug. 6 at Real Madrid: 1-2, L (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 vs. Man City: 2-4, L (Friendly)
- July 31 vs. America: 3-0, W (Friendly)
- July 27 vs. Celtic: 1-4, L (Friendly)
Man City Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 10 vs. Manchester United: 1-1, D (City win on PK’s)
- Aug. 3 vs. Chelsea: 4-2, W (Friendly)
- July 30 vs. Barcelona: 2-2, D (Friendly)
- July 27 vs. AC Milan: 2-3, L (Friendly)
- July 23 vs. Celtic: 3-4, L (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Chelsea odds and Manchester City odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Everton | West Ham United | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Ipswich Town | Nottingham Forest | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Brighton | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Wolves | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Bournemouth | Brentford | Mar. 15 | 1:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Arsenal | Chelsea | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Fulham | Tottenham | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Leicester City | Manchester United | Mar. 16 | 3 p.m. | King Power Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 21-7-1 | 70 | 42 |
| Arsenal | 15-10-3 | 55 | 28 |
| Nottingham Forest | 15-6-7 | 51 | 12 |
| Chelsea | 14-7-7 | 49 | 17 |
| Manchester City | 14-5-9 | 47 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 14-5-9 | 47 | 9 |
| Brighton | 12-10-6 | 46 | 6 |
| Aston Villa | 12-9-8 | 45 | -4 |
| Bournemouth | 12-8-8 | 44 | 13 |
| Fulham | 11-9-8 | 42 | 3 |
| Crystal Palace | 10-9-9 | 39 | 3 |
| Brentford | 11-5-12 | 38 | 4 |
| Tottenham | 10-4-14 | 34 | 14 |
| Manchester United | 9-7-12 | 34 | -6 |
| Everton | 7-12-9 | 33 | -4 |
| West Ham | 9-6-13 | 33 | -16 |
| Wolves | 6-5-17 | 23 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-8-17 | 17 | -32 |
| Leicester City | 4-5-19 | 17 | -37 |
| Southampton | 2-3-23 | 9 | -48 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 10-13-5 | 44.6% | 3-7-3 | 34.6% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% |
| Aston Villa | 11-17-1 | 40.0% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| Bournemouth | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 50.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Brentford | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 59.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Chelsea | 10-16-2 | 39.3% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% |
| Crystal Palace | 16-9-3 | 62.5% | 6-6-3 | 50.0% | 10-3-0 | 76.9% |
| Everton | 15-10-4 | 58.6% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% | 8-4-2 | 64.3% |
| Fulham | 16-10-2 | 60.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Ipswich Town | 11-16-2 | 41.4% | 4-11-0 | 26.7% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% |
| Leicester City | 12-15-1 | 44.6% | 5-9-0 | 35.7% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
| Liverpool | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 9-6-0 | 60.0% |
| Manchester City | 9-20-0 | 31.0% | 4-10-0 | 28.6% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 11-13-4 | 46.4% | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 5-6-2 | 46.2% |
| Newcastle United | 15-12-1 | 55.4% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 7-7-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-10-0 | 65.5% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 10-16-3 | 39.7% | 2-11-1 | 17.9% | 8-5-2 | 60.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 11-16-1 | 41.1% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-7-0 | 46.2% |
| West Ham United | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 10-4-0 | 71.4% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13-13-3 | 50.0% | 5-7-2 | 42.9% | 8-6-1 | 56.7% |
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