Chelsea vs. Man City Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

  • Chelsea is predicted to be a +0.5-goal underdog against Man City.
  • Chelsea captured draws in both meetings against City last season.
  • Cityโ€™s viability as a road favorite depends on one playerโ€™s availability.

Itโ€™s the marquee match of Premier League Matchday 1: Chelsea vs. Manchester City at Stamford Bridge.ย 

City struggled with the Blues last season. They drew Chelsea 4-4 at the Bridge and dropped points in a 1-1 draw at the Etihad Stadium.ย 

However, these sides met in the 2024 preseason with City capturing a 4-2 win against manager Enzo Marescaโ€™s side.ย 

Hereโ€™s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Sundayโ€™s match.ย 

Chelsea vs. Man City Odds, Premier League

  • Chelsea Moneyline: +290
  • Man City Moneyline: -120
  • Draw Moneyline: +290
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+115/-160)
  • Both Teams to Score: Yes (-210), No (+145)

Chelsea vs. Man City Prediction: Moneyline

If Manchester City have defensive midfielder Rodri in the Starting XI on Sunday, I predict theyโ€™ll win at Chelsea.ย 

However, bettors should wait until lineups drop before taking Pep Guardiolaโ€™s side, which is 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 season openers.ย 

Chelseaโ€™s results last season are undoubtedly encouraging for those looking to back the dog. However, the timing of those matches must be noted.ย 

In the first meeting at Stamford Bridge, City traveled to play on short rest with Chelsea carrying a rest edge, albeit by a single day.ย 

For the second meeting at the Etihad, City played a Saturday match after a road Tuesday Champions League game.ย 

Once again, Chelsea played the prior Monday and thus carried a rest edge.ย 

Those rest advantages are gone for this Matchday 1 fixture, and I worry immensely about Chelsea, who just lost 4-2 in a preseason friendly.ย 

Even more concerning? They lost 4-2 to a City side with no Rodri or Kevin de Bruyne along with a backline featuring zero players that started the last competitive match.ย 

City also matches a historically profitable betting system.ย 

Since the 2012-13 season, August road favorites that earned a result in the previous head-to-head meeting are 60.9% ATS.ย 

When City finds itself in that scenario, theyโ€™re 7-1 SU.ย 

Given Cityโ€™s implied probability comes out to 54.5%, I believe thereโ€™s slight value if they include Rodri in the lineup.ย 

Chelsea Record, Last 5 Matches

  • Aug. 11 vs. Inter: 1-1, D (Friendly)
  • Aug. 6 at Real Madrid: 1-2, L (Friendly)
  • Aug. 3 vs. Man City: 2-4, L (Friendly)
  • July 31 vs. America: 3-0, W (Friendly)
  • July 27 vs. Celtic: 1-4, L (Friendly)

Man City Record, Last 5 Matches

  • Aug. 10 vs. Manchester United: 1-1, D (City win on PKโ€™s)
  • Aug. 3 vs. Chelsea: 4-2, W (Friendly)
  • July 30 vs. Barcelona: 2-2, D (Friendly)
  • July 27 vs. AC Milan: 2-3, L (Friendly)
  • July 23 vs. Celtic: 3-4, L (Friendly)

Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Chelsea odds and Manchester City odds!

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedManchester CitySep. 287:30 a.m.St. James' Park
ArsenalLeicester CitySep. 2810 a.m.Emirates Stadium
BrentfordWest Ham UnitedSep. 2810 a.m.GTech Community Stadium
ChelseaBrighton & Hove AlbionSep. 2810 a.m.Stamford Bridge
EvertonCrystal PalaceSep. 2810 a.m.Goodison Park
Nottingham ForestFulhamSep. 2810 a.m.The City Ground
WolvesLiverpoolSep. 2812:30 p.m.Molineux
Ipswich TownAston VillaSep. 299 a.m.Portman Road
Manchester UnitedTottenhamSep. 2911:30 a.m.Old Trafford
BournemouthSouthamptonSep. 303 p.m. Vitality Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Manchester City4-1-0138
Liverpool4-0-1129
Aston Villa4-0-1123
Arsenal3-2-0115
Chelsea3-1-1106
Newcastle United3-1-1101
Brighton & Hove Albion2-3-094
Nottingham Forest2-3-092
Fulham2-2-182
Tottenham Hotspur2-1-274
Manchester United2-1-270
Brentford2-0-36-2
Bournemouth1-2-25-3
West Ham United1-1-34-4
Leicester City0-3-23-2
Crystal Palace0-3-23-3
Ipswich Town0-3-23-5
Southampton0-1-41-7
Everton0-1-41-9
Wolverhampton Wanderers0-1-41-9

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Aston Villa4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Bournemouth3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Brentford3-2-0.6002-0-01.0001-2-0.333
Brighton & Hove Albion3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Chelsea3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Crystal Palace2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Everton1-4-0.2000-2-0.0001-2-0.333
Fulham2-3-0.4002-1-0.6670-2-0.000
Ipswich Town3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Leicester City2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Liverpool4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Manchester City3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Manchester United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Newcastle United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Nottingham Forest3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Southampton1-4-0.2000-3-0.0001-1-0.500
Tottenham Hotspur2-3-0.4002-1-0.5000-2-0.000
West Ham United2-3-0.4000-3-0.0002-0-01.000
Wolverhampton Wanderers2-3-0.4000-2-0.0002-1-0.667

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.