- Chelsea is a -0.5-goal favorite against Newcastle United.
- Magpies obliterated Chelsea 4-1 in the previous head-to-head meeting.
- Bet into this 70% winning system for Monday’s match.
Before Monday Night Football kicks off from Stamford Bridge in London, I’m here to offer a Chelsea vs. Newcastle United prediction.
Hosts Chelsea failed to win as road favorites last weekend at Brentford, dropping two points in a 2-2 draw.
Newcastle United produced a solid 3-0 home win over Wolves, their third win in their last six games.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Monday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Chelsea vs. Newcastle United
- Chelsea Moneyline: -115
- Newcastle United Moneyline: +260
- Draw Moneyline: +300
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-155)
EPL Prediction – Chelsea vs. Newcastle United
Newcastle United Spread (+0.5, -115)
Manager Eddie Howe’s side is finally getting healthy, but the market hasn’t quite caught up to them.
Over their last five matches, Newcastle have earned at least a point four times. Their only loss? At title contenders Arsenal.
Although it’s nerve-wracking betting on a team with the fifth-worst road expected goal differential in the Premier League, they’ve earned outright wins in two of their last three road fixtures.
Included in that sample is a deserved 3-1 win at Aston Villa, a side superior to Chelsea in terms of their home underlying metrics.
Plus, Newcastle United match a historically profitable betting system that wins at a 70% clip.
Essentially, bettors want to attack road underdogs off a big win when they’re facing a team they beat in the last meeting.
Since the 2017-18 season, road dogs off a win by two or more goals that won the previous head-to-head meeting are 26-11-2 ATS, assuming their opponent failed to win their previous game.
This season, those teams are 6-1 ATS. Since last season? 12-1 ATS.
Even when the spread is +0.5 or shorter, teams are 22-10-2 ATS in such spots.
Given Chelsea drew with Brentford last weekend – a team I rate behind Newcastle United – it’s reasonable to expect they’ll struggle in this spot.
Plus, Chelsea have faced five teams this season with a win percentage higher than 35% off a non-win.
In those games, they’ve captured a straight up victory only once.
As a result, bettors should buy high on Newcastle and back them to do no worse than a result. Bet to -125.
Chelsea Form
March 2 at Brentford: 2-2, D
Feb. 28 vs. Leeds: 3-2, W (FA Cup)
Feb. 25 vs. Liverpool: 0-1, L (League Cup, AET)
Feb. 17 at Man City: 1-1, D
Feb. 12 at Crystal Palace: 3-1, W
Newcastle United Form
March 2 vs. Wolves: 3-0, W
Feb. 27 at Blackburn: 1-1, D (FA Cup, Blackburn win on PK’s)
Feb. 24 at Arsenal: 1-4, L
Feb. 17 vs. Bournemouth: 2-2, D
Feb. 10 at Nottingham Forest: 3-2, W
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Bournemouth | Nottingham Forest | Jan. 25 | 10 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Brighton | Everton | Jan. 25 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Liverpool | Ipswich Town | Jan. 25 | 10 a.m. | Anfield |
| Southampton | Newcastle United | Jan. 25 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Wolves | Arsenal | Jan. 25 | 10 a.m. | Molineux |
| Manchester City | Chelsea | Jan. 25 | 12:30 p.m | Etihad Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Brentford | Jan. 26 | 9 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Tottenham | Leicester City | Jan. 26 | 9 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Aston Villa | West Ham United | Jan. 26 | 11:30 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Manchester United | Jan. 26 | 2 p.m. | Craven Cottage |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 15-5-1 | 50 | 30 |
| Arsenal | 12-8-2 | 44 | 22 |
| Nottingham Forest | 13-5-4 | 44 | 11 |
| Chelsea | 11-7-4 | 40 | 17 |
| Manchester City | 11-5-6 | 38 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 11-5-6 | 38 | 12 |
| Bournemouth | 10-7-5 | 37 | 10 |
| Aston Villa | 10-6-6 | 36 | -1 |
| Brighton | 8-10-4 | 34 | 5 |
| Fulham | 8-9-5 | 33 | 4 |
| Brentford | 8-4-10 | 28 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 6-9-7 | 27 | -3 |
| Manchester United | 7-5-10 | 26 | -5 |
| West Ham United | 7-5-10 | 26 | -16 |
| Tottenham | 7-3-12 | 24 | 10 |
| Everton | 4-8-9 | 20 | -10 |
| Wolves | 4-4-14 | 16 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-7-12 | 16 | -23 |
| Leicester City | 3-5-14 | 14 | -25 |
| Southampton | 1-3-18 | 6 | -35 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 8-10-4 | 45.5% | 2-6-3 | 31.8% | 6-4-1 | 59.1% |
| Aston Villa | 8-13-1 | 38.6% | 3-7-1 | 31.8% | 5-6-0 | 45.5% |
| Bournemouth | 15-7-0 | 68.2% | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
| Brentford | 13-7-2 | 63.6% | 8-4-0 | 66.7% | 5-3-2 | 60.0% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 12-9-1 | 56.8% | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 8-3-1 | 70.8% |
| Chelsea | 9-11-2 | 45.5% | 4-6-1 | 40.9% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% |
| Crystal Palace | 12-7-3 | 61.4% | 4-4-3 | 50.0% | 8-3-0 | 72.7% |
| Everton | 10-9-2 | 52.4% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% | 5-4-1 | 55.0% |
| Fulham | 13-7-2 | 63.6% | 5-6-0 | 45.5% | 7-2-2 | 72.7% |
| Ipswich Town | 10-11-1 | 47.7% | 4-8-0 | 33.3% | 6-3-1 | 65.0% |
| Leicester City | 10-11-1 | 47.7% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 5-4-1 | 55.0% |
| Liverpool | 11-9-1 | 54.8% | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 7-4-0 | 63.6% |
| Manchester City | 6-16-0 | 27.3% | 2-8-0 | 20.0% | 4-8-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 9-11-2 | 45.5% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% | 4-5-1 | 45.0% |
| Newcastle United | 12-9-1 | 56.8% | 7-4-0 | 63.6% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 15-7-0 | 68.2% | 6-5-0 | 54.5% | 9-2-0 | 81.8% |
| Southampton | 8-11-3 | 43.2% | 2-7-1 | 25.0% | 6-4-2 | 58.3% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 8-14-0 | 36.4% | 4-7-0 | 36.4% | 4-7-0 | 36.4% |
| West Ham United | 10-11-1 | 47.7% | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 6-4-0 | 60.0% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 9-12-1 | 43.2% | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% |
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