Chelsea vs. Newcastle United Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Newcastle's Alexander Isak, right, celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Liverpool and Newcastle, at Anfield stadium in Liverpool, England, Monday, Jan. 1, 2024.
(Jon Super/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Mar 11, 2024, 9:35 AM
  • Chelsea is a -0.5-goal favorite against Newcastle United.
  • Magpies obliterated Chelsea 4-1 in the previous head-to-head meeting.
  • Bet into this 70% winning system for Monday’s match.

Before Monday Night Football kicks off from Stamford Bridge in London, I’m here to offer a Chelsea vs. Newcastle United prediction. 

Hosts Chelsea failed to win as road favorites last weekend at Brentford, dropping two points in a 2-2 draw. 

Newcastle United produced a solid 3-0 home win over Wolves, their third win in their last six games. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Monday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Chelsea vs. Newcastle United

  • Chelsea Moneyline: -115
  • Newcastle United Moneyline: +260
  • Draw Moneyline: +300
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-155)

EPL Prediction – Chelsea vs. Newcastle United

Newcastle United Spread (+0.5, -115)

Manager Eddie Howe’s side is finally getting healthy, but the market hasn’t quite caught up to them. 

Over their last five matches, Newcastle have earned at least a point four times. Their only loss? At title contenders Arsenal. 

Although it’s nerve-wracking betting on a team with the fifth-worst road expected goal differential in the Premier League, they’ve earned outright wins in two of their last three road fixtures. 

Included in that sample is a deserved 3-1 win at Aston Villa, a side superior to Chelsea in terms of their home underlying metrics. 

Plus, Newcastle United match a historically profitable betting system that wins at a 70% clip. 

Essentially, bettors want to attack road underdogs off a big win when they’re facing a team they beat in the last meeting. 

Since the 2017-18 season, road dogs off a win by two or more goals that won the previous head-to-head meeting are 26-11-2 ATS, assuming their opponent failed to win their previous game. 

This season, those teams are 6-1 ATS. Since last season? 12-1 ATS.

Even when the spread is +0.5 or shorter, teams are 22-10-2 ATS in such spots. 

Given Chelsea drew with Brentford last weekend – a team I rate behind Newcastle United – it’s reasonable to expect they’ll struggle in this spot. 

Plus, Chelsea have faced five teams this season with a win percentage higher than 35% off a non-win. 

In those games, they’ve captured a straight up victory only once. 

As a result, bettors should buy high on Newcastle and back them to do no worse than a result. Bet to -125. 

Chelsea Form 

March 2 at Brentford: 2-2, D

Feb. 28 vs. Leeds: 3-2, W (FA Cup)

Feb. 25 vs. Liverpool: 0-1, L (League Cup, AET)

Feb. 17 at Man City: 1-1, D

Feb. 12 at Crystal Palace: 3-1, W

Newcastle United Form

March 2 vs. Wolves: 3-0, W

Feb. 27 at Blackburn: 1-1, D (FA Cup, Blackburn win on PK’s)

Feb. 24 at Arsenal: 1-4, L

Feb. 17 vs. Bournemouth: 2-2, D

Feb. 10 at Nottingham Forest: 3-2, W

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedTottenhamApr. 137:30 AMSt. James' Park
BrentfordSheffield UnitedApr. 1310:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
BurnleyBrightonApr. 1310:00 AMTurf Moor
Man CityLuton TownApr. 1310:00 AMEtihad Stadium
Nottingham ForestWolvesApr. 1310:00 AMThe City Ground
BournemouthManchester UnitedApr. 1312:30 PMVitality Stadium
LiverpoolCrystal PalaceApr. 149:00 AMAnfield
West Ham UnitedFulhamApr. 149:00 AMLondon Stadium
ArsenalAston VillaApr. 1411:30 PMEmirates Stadium
ChelseaEvertonApr. 153:00 PMStamford Bridge

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City22-7-37344---
Arsenal FC22-5-57149---
Liverpool FC21-8-37141---
Aston Villa FC19-6-86319---
Tottenham Hotspur18-6-86016---
Newcastle United15-5-125017---
Manchester United15-5-1250-1---
West Ham United13-9-1148-6---
Chelsea FC13-8-10478---
Brighton & Hove Albion11-11-10442---
Fulham FC12-6-1542-2---
Crystal Palace8-9-1533-17---
Everton9-8-1527-158 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest7-9-1726-164 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-7-2025-24---
Burnley FC4-8-2120-35---
Sheffield United3-7-2216-54---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa16-15-1.51610-6.6256-9-1.406
Brighton & Hove Albion15-16-1.4848-7.5337-9-1.441
Crystal Palace15-17.4696-9.4009-8.529
Luton Town21-11-1.65212-4.7509-7-1.559
Manchester City14-18.4387-10.4127-8.467
Manchester United12-19-1.3916-9.4006-10-1.382
Newcastle United16-16.50011-6.6475-10.333
Nottingham Forest14-17-2.4555-11-1.3249-6-1.594
Sheffield United18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
Tottenham Hotspur18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
West Ham United17-16.51510-7.5887-9.438
Wolverhampton Wanderers16-15-1.5168-7.5339-7-1.559

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.