Man City vs. Liverpool Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

Manchester City's Erling Haaland celebrates after scoring his side's third goal during an English Premier League soccer match between Manchester City and Manchester United at the Etihad Stadium in Manchester, England, Sunday, March 3, 2024.
(Dave Thompson/AP Photo)
  • Man City is a -0.5-goal favorite against Liverpool.
  • City has struggled to earn outright road wins vs. Premier Leagueโ€™s best.
  • How to fade Liverpoolโ€™s inexperienced defense and goalkeeper.

Itโ€™s a marquee Premier League match with title race implications. Below, bettors can find my Man City vs. Liverpool prediction.ย 

Both teams picked up crucial wins last weekend โ€“ City 3-1 over Manchester United, Liverpool 1-0 at Nottingham Forest โ€“ to remain first and second in the Premier League table.ย 

When these sides met earlier this season, Liverpool captured a 1-1 road draw at the Etihad. In the last five head-to-head Premier League meetings, three have finished level.ย 

Hereโ€™s a look at the EPL odds and my pick for Sundayโ€™s fixture.ย 

EPL Betting Odds – Man City vs. Liverpool

  • Man City Moneyline: +130
  • Liverpool Moneyline: +175
  • Draw Moneyline: +280
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+120/-165)

EPL Prediction – Man City vs. Liverpool

Man City 1H Team Total Over 0.5 (-130)

A long time has passed since this Liverpool defense faced an excellent attack.ย 

In fact, February 4 โ€“ at Arsenal โ€“ was the last time Liverpoolโ€™s defense faced a team fifth or better in non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.ย 

In that match, Liverpool looked quite vulnerable early. They allowed a goal inside of 15 minutes, 1.98 xG for the first half, and 0.97 post shot expected goals, per fotmob.com.ย 

The last time they faced City, Liverpool emerged from the starting blocks slow defensively.ย 

Although they allowed only 0.39 expected goals, the post shot xG total for Manchester City was 1.17.ย 

Sample Liverpoolโ€™s six games against sides fifth or better in npxG per 90 minutes, and bettors will find theyโ€™ve allowed a first half goal in four of six games.ย 

This is also a Liverpool team ripe for negative regression defensively.ย 

Entering Sundayโ€™s game, theyโ€™ve surrendered only 25 goals compared to 33 expected, per fbref.com.ย 

As for City, although they failed to score a first half goal against Manchester United, they created 2.83 expected goals and 1.29 post shot expected goals.ย 

Add in the fact that Liverpool goalkeeper Allison wonโ€™t feature in Sundayโ€™s match, and Iโ€™ll back City to find the net early.ย 

Man City Formย 

March 6 vs. Copenhagen: 3-1, W (Champions League)

March 3 vs. Manchester United: 3-1, W

Feb. 27 at Luton Town: 6-2, W (FA Cup)

Feb. 24 at Bournemouth: 1-0, W

Feb. 20 vs. Brentford: 1-0, W

Liverpool Form

March 7 at Slavia Prague: 5-1, W (Europa League)

March 2 at Nottingham Forest: 1-0, W

Feb. 28 vs. Southampton: 3-0, W (FA Cup)

Feb. 25 vs. Chelsea: 1-0, W (League Cup, AET)

Feb. 21 vs. Luton Town: 4-1, W

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedManchester CitySep. 287:30 a.m.St. James' Park
ArsenalLeicester CitySep. 2810 a.m.Emirates Stadium
BrentfordWest Ham UnitedSep. 2810 a.m.GTech Community Stadium
ChelseaBrighton & Hove AlbionSep. 2810 a.m.Stamford Bridge
EvertonCrystal PalaceSep. 2810 a.m.Goodison Park
Nottingham ForestFulhamSep. 2810 a.m.The City Ground
WolvesLiverpoolSep. 2812:30 p.m.Molineux
Ipswich TownAston VillaSep. 299 a.m.Portman Road
Manchester UnitedTottenhamSep. 2911:30 a.m.Old Trafford
BournemouthSouthamptonSep. 303 p.m. Vitality Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Manchester City4-1-0138
Liverpool4-0-1129
Aston Villa4-0-1123
Arsenal3-2-0115
Chelsea3-1-1106
Newcastle United3-1-1101
Brighton & Hove Albion2-3-094
Nottingham Forest2-3-092
Fulham2-2-182
Tottenham Hotspur2-1-274
Manchester United2-1-270
Brentford2-0-36-2
Bournemouth1-2-25-3
West Ham United1-1-34-4
Leicester City0-3-23-2
Crystal Palace0-3-23-3
Ipswich Town0-3-23-5
Southampton0-1-41-7
Everton0-1-41-9
Wolverhampton Wanderers0-1-41-9

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Aston Villa4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Bournemouth3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Brentford3-2-0.6002-0-01.0001-2-0.333
Brighton & Hove Albion3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Chelsea3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Crystal Palace2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Everton1-4-0.2000-2-0.0001-2-0.333
Fulham2-3-0.4002-1-0.6670-2-0.000
Ipswich Town3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Leicester City2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Liverpool4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Manchester City3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Manchester United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Newcastle United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Nottingham Forest3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Southampton1-4-0.2000-3-0.0001-1-0.500
Tottenham Hotspur2-3-0.4002-1-0.5000-2-0.000
West Ham United2-3-0.4000-3-0.0002-0-01.000
Wolverhampton Wanderers2-3-0.4000-2-0.0002-1-0.667

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.