Man City vs. Liverpool Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Manchester City's Erling Haaland celebrates after scoring his side's third goal during an English Premier League soccer match between Manchester City and Manchester United at the Etihad Stadium in Manchester, England, Sunday, March 3, 2024.
(Dave Thompson/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Mar 08, 2024, 11:53 AM
  • Man City is a -0.5-goal favorite against Liverpool.
  • City has struggled to earn outright road wins vs. Premier League’s best.
  • How to fade Liverpool’s inexperienced defense and goalkeeper.

It’s a marquee Premier League match with title race implications. Below, bettors can find my Man City vs. Liverpool prediction. 

Both teams picked up crucial wins last weekend – City 3-1 over Manchester United, Liverpool 1-0 at Nottingham Forest – to remain first and second in the Premier League table. 

When these sides met earlier this season, Liverpool captured a 1-1 road draw at the Etihad. In the last five head-to-head Premier League meetings, three have finished level. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my pick for Sunday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Man City vs. Liverpool

  • Man City Moneyline: +130
  • Liverpool Moneyline: +175
  • Draw Moneyline: +280
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+120/-165)

EPL Prediction – Man City vs. Liverpool

Man City 1H Team Total Over 0.5 (-130)

A long time has passed since this Liverpool defense faced an excellent attack. 

In fact, February 4 – at Arsenal – was the last time Liverpool’s defense faced a team fifth or better in non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes, per fbref.com. 

In that match, Liverpool looked quite vulnerable early. They allowed a goal inside of 15 minutes, 1.98 xG for the first half, and 0.97 post shot expected goals, per fotmob.com. 

The last time they faced City, Liverpool emerged from the starting blocks slow defensively. 

Although they allowed only 0.39 expected goals, the post shot xG total for Manchester City was 1.17. 

Sample Liverpool’s six games against sides fifth or better in npxG per 90 minutes, and bettors will find they’ve allowed a first half goal in four of six games. 

This is also a Liverpool team ripe for negative regression defensively. 

Entering Sunday’s game, they’ve surrendered only 25 goals compared to 33 expected, per fbref.com. 

As for City, although they failed to score a first half goal against Manchester United, they created 2.83 expected goals and 1.29 post shot expected goals. 

Add in the fact that Liverpool goalkeeper Allison won’t feature in Sunday’s match, and I’ll back City to find the net early. 

Man City Form 

March 6 vs. Copenhagen: 3-1, W (Champions League)

March 3 vs. Manchester United: 3-1, W

Feb. 27 at Luton Town: 6-2, W (FA Cup)

Feb. 24 at Bournemouth: 1-0, W

Feb. 20 vs. Brentford: 1-0, W

Liverpool Form

March 7 at Slavia Prague: 5-1, W (Europa League)

March 2 at Nottingham Forest: 1-0, W

Feb. 28 vs. Southampton: 3-0, W (FA Cup)

Feb. 25 vs. Chelsea: 1-0, W (League Cup, AET)

Feb. 21 vs. Luton Town: 4-1, W

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedTottenhamApr. 137:30 AMSt. James' Park
BrentfordSheffield UnitedApr. 1310:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
BurnleyBrightonApr. 1310:00 AMTurf Moor
Man CityLuton TownApr. 1310:00 AMEtihad Stadium
Nottingham ForestWolvesApr. 1310:00 AMThe City Ground
BournemouthManchester UnitedApr. 1312:30 PMVitality Stadium
LiverpoolCrystal PalaceApr. 149:00 AMAnfield
West Ham UnitedFulhamApr. 149:00 AMLondon Stadium
ArsenalAston VillaApr. 1411:30 PMEmirates Stadium
ChelseaEvertonApr. 153:00 PMStamford Bridge

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City22-7-37344---
Arsenal FC22-5-57149---
Liverpool FC21-8-37141---
Aston Villa FC19-6-86319---
Tottenham Hotspur18-6-86016---
Newcastle United15-5-125017---
Manchester United15-5-1250-1---
West Ham United13-9-1148-6---
Chelsea FC13-8-10478---
Brighton & Hove Albion11-11-10442---
Wolves12-7-1343-5---
Fulham FC12-6-1542-2---
Bournemouth11-9-1242-10---
Crystal Palace8-9-1533-17---
Brentford8-8-1732-11---
Everton9-8-1527-158 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest7-9-1726-164 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-7-2025-24---
Burnley FC4-8-2120-35---
Sheffield United3-7-2216-54---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal18-13.5818-7.53310-6.625
Aston Villa16-15-1.51610-6.6256-9-1.406
Bournemouth18-12-2.5949-6-2.5889-6.600
Brentford12-19-2.3946-10-1.3826-9-1.406
Brighton & Hove Albion15-16-1.4848-7.5337-9-1.441
Burnley13-19-1.4094-12-1.2659-7.563
Chelsea15-16.48410-6.6255-10.333
Crystal Palace15-17.4696-9.4009-8.529
Everton14-18.4387-8.4677-10.412
Fulham17-15-1.53010-5-1.6567-10.412
Liverpool16-16.5009-8.5297-8.467
Luton Town21-11-1.65212-4.7509-7-1.559
Manchester City14-18.4387-10.4127-8.467
Manchester United12-19-1.3916-9.4006-10-1.382
Newcastle United16-16.50011-6.6475-10.333
Nottingham Forest14-17-2.4555-11-1.3249-6-1.594
Sheffield United18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
Tottenham Hotspur18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
West Ham United17-16.51510-7.5887-9.438
Wolverhampton Wanderers16-15-1.5168-7.5339-7-1.559

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.