- Newcastle is a -0.5-goal favorite against Everton.
- Everton claimed a 3-0 home win in the reverse fixture.
- Why bettors should fade Newcastle as home favorites on Tuesday.
To kick off the midweek Premier League slate, Everton travels to face Newcastle United at St. James’ Park.
Over the weekend, these sides experienced different results. Newcastle, after going down 3-1 at home to West Ham, stormed back to win 4-3.
As for Everton, they dropped all three points in a road effort against Bournemouth.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Tuesday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Newcastle United vs. Everton
- Newcastle Moneyline: +100
- Everton Moneyline: +240
- Draw Moneyline: +280
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+135/-190)
EPL Prediction – Newcastle United vs. Everton
Everton Spread (+0.5, -125)
Everton haven’t earned all three points since mid-December, so this qualifies as a big buy-low spot.
However, Everton completely dominated the reverse fixture at Goodison Park.
Manager Sean Dyche’s side created 3.4 expected goals against a paper-thin Newcastle defense and won the expected goals battle 3.4 to 1.6, per fotmob.com.
For all of Everton’s issues this season, they’ve proved very good as dogs against teams they beat.
This season, they’re 2-1 ATS against such teams. Increase the sample to consider teams against which they earned a result, bettors will find they’re 4-2 against this number.
Plus, history says it’s wise to fade favorites who have strung together some bad defensive performances.
Since the 2020-21 season, favorites off a win that have allowed at least two goals in two straight games are only 68-71 SU.
When those teams are coming off a one or two-goal victory, they’re only 9-12 SU, including 4-12 when they won their last game by one goal.
Lastly, Newcastle faces multiple absences through injuries or suspensions.
On the attacking front, both Anthony Gordon and Callum Wilson won’t feature.
Newcastle are also missing Lewis Miley and Joelinton in midfield, Sven Botman in defense, and potentially Jamaal Lascelles and Kieran Trippier.
Without all those players, I question how Newcastle claims an outright win against an Everton side that’s fourth in non-penalty expected goals against per 90 this season.
Take the visitors to capture a point at St. James’ Park. Bet to -135.
Newcastle Form
March 30 vs. West Ham United: 4-3, W
March 16 at Man City: 0-2 L (FA Cup)
March 11 at Chelsea: 2-3, L
March 2 vs. Wolves: 3-0, W
Feb. 27 at Blackburn: 1-1, D (FA Cup, Newcastle Won on PK’s)
Everton Form
March 30 at Bournemouth: 1-2, L
March 9 at Manchester United: 0-2, L
March 2 vs. West Ham United: 1-3, L
Feb. 24 at Brighton: 1-1, D
Feb. 19 vs. Crystal Palace: 1-1, D
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Nottingham Forest | Chelsea | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Southampton | Arsenal | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Liverpool | Crystal Palace | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Anfield |
| Ipswich Town | West Ham | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Bournemouth | Leicester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Man United | Aston Villa | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Newcastle | Everton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Tottenham | Brighton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Wolves | Brentford | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
| Fulham | Manchester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-4 | 83 | 45 |
| Arsenal | 19-14-4 | 71 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 20-8-9 | 68 | 26 |
| Newcastle United | 20-6-11 | 66 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 19-9-9 | 66 | 20 |
| Aston Villa | 19-9-9 | 66 | 9 |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-8-10 | 65 | 13 |
| Brighton | 15-14-8 | 58 | 4 |
| Brentford | 16-7-14 | 55 | 9 |
| Fulham | 15-9-13 | 54 | 2 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-12 | 53 | 9 |
| Crystal Palace | 13-13-11 | 52 | 0 |
| Everton | 10-15-12 | 45 | -3 |
| Wolves | 12-5-20 | 41 | -15 |
| West Ham | 10-10-17 | 40 | -18 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-18 | 39 | -12 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 2 |
| Leicester City | 6-7-24 | 25 | -45 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-23 | 22 | -44 |
| Southampton | 2-6-29 | 12 | -59 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 14-17-6 | 45.9% | 5-10-4 | 36.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-16-2 | 54.1% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-6-2 | 63.2% |
| Brentford | 22-12-3 | 63.5% | 11-8-0 | 57.9% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 10-9-0 | 52.6% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 20-13-4 | 59.5% | 8-7-4 | 52.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 19-12-6 | 59.5% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 10-5-4 | 63.2% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-20-3 | 41.9% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-7-2 | 57.9% |
| Leicester City | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 8-11-0 | 42.1% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-19-2 | 45.9% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-10-0 | 47.4% |
| Manchester City | 13-24-0 | 35.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-5 | 44.6% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% |
| Newcastle United | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-10-1 | 44.7% |
| Nottingham Forest | 23-14-0 | 62.2% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 13-6-0 | 68.4% |
| Southampton | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-23-1 | 36.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% |
| West Ham United | 18-17-2 | 51.4% | 6-12-1 | 34.2% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-15-3 | 55.4% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-7-1 | 60.5% |
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