Newcastle United vs. Everton Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Everton's Dominic Calvert-Lewin during the English Premier League soccer match between Everton and Tottenham Hotspur, at the Goodison Park stadium, in Liverpool, England, Saturday, Feb. 3, 2024.
(Jon Super/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 01, 2024, 12:18 PM
  • Newcastle is a -0.5-goal favorite against Everton.
  • Everton claimed a 3-0 home win in the reverse fixture.
  • Why bettors should fade Newcastle as home favorites on Tuesday.

To kick off the midweek Premier League slate, Everton travels to face Newcastle United at St. James’ Park. 

Over the weekend, these sides experienced different results. Newcastle, after going down 3-1 at home to West Ham, stormed back to win 4-3. 

As for Everton, they dropped all three points in a road effort against Bournemouth. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Tuesday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Newcastle United vs. Everton

  • Newcastle Moneyline: +100
  • Everton Moneyline: +240
  • Draw Moneyline: +280
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+135/-190)

EPL Prediction – Newcastle United vs. Everton

Everton Spread (+0.5, -125)

Everton haven’t earned all three points since mid-December, so this qualifies as a big buy-low spot. 

However, Everton completely dominated the reverse fixture at Goodison Park. 

Manager Sean Dyche’s side created 3.4 expected goals against a paper-thin Newcastle defense and won the expected goals battle 3.4 to 1.6, per 

For all of Everton’s issues this season, they’ve proved very good as dogs against teams they beat. 

This season, they’re 2-1 ATS against such teams. Increase the sample to consider teams against which they earned a result, bettors will find they’re 4-2 against this number. 

Plus, history says it’s wise to fade favorites who have strung together some bad defensive performances. 

Since the 2020-21 season, favorites off a win that have allowed at least two goals in two straight games are only 68-71 SU. 

When those teams are coming off a one or two-goal victory, they’re only 9-12 SU, including 4-12 when they won their last game by one goal. 

Lastly, Newcastle faces multiple absences through injuries or suspensions. 

On the attacking front, both Anthony Gordon and Callum Wilson won’t feature. 

Newcastle are also missing Lewis Miley and Joelinton in midfield, Sven Botman in defense, and potentially Jamaal Lascelles and Kieran Trippier. 

Without all those players, I question how Newcastle claims an outright win against an Everton side that’s fourth in non-penalty expected goals against per 90 this season. 

Take the visitors to capture a point at St. James’ Park. Bet to -135. 

Newcastle Form 

March 30 vs. West Ham United: 4-3, W

March 16 at Man City: 0-2 L (FA Cup)

March 11 at Chelsea: 2-3, L

March 2 vs. Wolves: 3-0, W

Feb. 27 at Blackburn: 1-1, D (FA Cup, Newcastle Won on PK’s) 

Everton Form

March 30 at Bournemouth: 1-2, L

March 9 at Manchester United: 0-2, L

March 2 vs. West Ham United: 1-3, L

Feb. 24 at Brighton: 1-1, D

Feb. 19 vs. Crystal Palace: 1-1, D

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalChelseaApr. 233:00 PMEmirates Stadium
WolvesBournemouthApr. 242:45 PMMolineux Stadium
Crystal PalaceNewcastle UnitedApr. 243:00 PMSelhurst Park
EvertonLiverpoolApr. 243:00 PMGoodison Park
Manchester UnitedSheffield UnitedApr. 243:00 PMOld Trafford
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester CityApr. 253:00 PMAmex Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Arsenal FC23-5-57451---
Liverpool FC22-8-37443---
Manchester City22-7-37344---
Aston Villa FC20-6-86621---
Tottenham Hotspur18-6-86016---
Newcastle United15-5-125017---
Manchester United15-5-1250-1---
West Ham United13-9-1248-9---
Chelsea FC13-8-10478---
Brighton & Hove Albion11-11-10442---
Fulham FC12-6-1642-4---
Crystal Palace9-9-1536-14---
Everton10-8-1530-138 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest7-9-1826-184 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-7-2125-28---
Burnley FC5-8-2123-32---
Sheffield United3-7-2316-57---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa17-15-1.53011-6.6476-9-1.406
Brighton & Hove Albion15-16-1.4848-7.5337-9-1.441
Crystal Palace16-17.4857-9.4389-8.529
Luton Town21-12-1.63212-5.7069-7-1.559
Manchester City14-18.4387-10.4127-8.467
Manchester United12-19-1.3916-9.4006-10-1.382
Newcastle United16-16.50011-6.6475-10.333
Nottingham Forest14-18-2.4415-11-1.3249-7-1.559
Sheffield United18-15.5459-8.5299-7.563
Tottenham Hotspur18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
West Ham United17-17.50010-7.5887-10.412
Wolverhampton Wanderers17-16.5158-8.5009-8.529

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.