- Southampton is predicted to be a +0.5-goal underdog against Manchester United.
- Manchester United has won 13 of their last 14 against promoted teams.
- I predict Manchester United earn all three points at St. Mary’s Stadium.
Seeking an end to their two-match losing streak, Manchester United travel to face Southampton.
Prior to the international break, the Red Devils lost 3-0 at home to Liverpool, their second straight defeat following a road loss to Brighton.
Southampton has yet to earn points this season. In their last match, they traveled to Brentford and received a 3-1 thumping.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for this fixture.
Southampton vs. Manchester United Odds, Premier League
- Southampton Moneyline: +333
- Manchester United Moneyline: -135
- Draw Moneyline: +290
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-160/+115)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-160), No (+110)
Southampton vs. Manchester United Prediction: Moneyline
My prediction for Saturday’s Southampton vs. Manchester United fixture is the Manchester United Moneyline (-135).
I hate that I have to make this bet. I can’t even remember the last time I put real dollars on Manchester United.
But there’s evidence supporting a bet on the Red Devils, who have won 13 of their last 14 against promoted teams.
United has lost two straight, yes, but they thoroughly dominated the opening match against Fulham.
Erik ten Hag’s squad only won the match 1-0. However, expected goals finished 2.4 to 0.4 in favor of the hosts.
Even if you discount the Alejandro Garnacho attempt worth 0.67 xG and zero psxG in the 94th minute, United won the psxG battle 2.1 to 0.9, per fbref.com.
Plus, Southampton has actually run lucky in their last two matches. The Saints posted a -3 goal differential compared to a -4.1 psxGDiff against Nottingham Forest and Brentford.
Two systems also suggest United is worth a bet.
First, early moneyline moves on favorites tend to signal the correct side. Since 2012, favorites in games 1-9 that see their moneyline rise are 67.5% SU, assuming two factors:
- The previous head-to-head result was either +0 or +1
- The underdog’s previous game margin fell between -8 and -1
When those favorites are coming off a loss, they’re 19-5 SU (79.2%), including 11-2 SU (84.6%) off a multi-goal defeat.
The other system suggests fading previous dogs early.
Since 2012, favorites priced between -205 and -105 in games 2-10 are 78% SU, assuming three factors:
- The underdog’s previous game margin fell between -4 and +0
- The underdog was an underdog in their previous game
- The previous head-to-head result fell between +0 and +4
When those favorites are playing off a loss, they’re 24-7 SU and have dropped all three points only four times.
Based on those outlays, lay the juice with United off an extended rest period.
Southampton Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 31 at Brentford: 1-3, L
- Aug. 28 at Cardiff City: 5-3, W (EFL Cup)
- Aug. 24 vs. Nottingham Forest: 0-1, L
- Aug. 17 at Newcastle United: 0-1, L
- Aug. 10 vs. Getafe: 0-0, D (Friendly)
Manchester United Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 1 vs. Liverpool: 0-3, L
- Aug. 24 at Brighton: 1-2, L
- Aug. 16 vs. Fulham: 1-0, W
- Aug. 10 vs. Man City: 1-1, D (City Win on PK’s)
- Aug. 3 vs. Liverpool: 0-3, L (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Southampton odds and Manchester United odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Chelsea | Everton | Apr. 26 | 7:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Southampton | Fulham | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Brighton | West Ham United | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Newcastle United | Ipswich Town | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Wolves | Leicester City | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Molinneux |
| Bournemouth | Manchester United | Apr. 27 | 9 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Liverpool | Tottenham | Apr. 27 | 11:30 a.m. | Anfield |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-7-2 | 82 | 48 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-3 | 68 | 34 |
| Newcastle United | 19-5-10 | 62 | 21 |
| Manchester City | 18-7-9 | 61 | 23 |
| Chelsea | 17-9-8 | 60 | 19 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-9 | 60 | 14 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-9 | 57 | 5 |
| Fulham | 14-9-11 | 51 | 4 |
| Brighton | 13-13-8 | 51 | 1 |
| Bournemouth | 13-11-10 | 50 | 12 |
| Brentford | 13-7-13 | 46 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-12-11 | 45 | -4 |
| Wolves | 12-5-17 | 41 | -10 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-15 | 39 | -8 |
| Everton | 8-14-12 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-19 | 37 | 6 |
| West Ham | 9-9-16 | 36 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-21 | 21 | -41 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-24 | 18 | -49 |
| Southampton | 2-5-27 | 11 | -55 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-16-6 | 44.1% | 4-9-4 | 35.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 18-14-2 | 55.9% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 18-15-1 | 54.4% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-3 | 39.7% | 6-9-2 | 41.2% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-11-6 | 58.8% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Fulham | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-19-2 | 41.2% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Leicester City | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-7-1 | 55.9% |
| Liverpool | 16-16-2 | 50.0% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 12-22-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-16-4 | 47.1% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% |
| Newcastle United | 20-13-1 | 60.3% | 12-5-0 | 70.6% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-12-0 | 63.6% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-4 | 41.2% | 3-12-2 | 23.5% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-21-1 | 36.8% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-2 | 52.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 18-13-3 | 57.4% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
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