Southampton vs. Manchester United Prediction, Odds & Preview

Nick Hennion @nickhennion Sep 11, 2024, 3:45 PM
  • Southampton is predicted to be a +0.5-goal underdog against Manchester United.
  • Manchester United has won 13 of their last 14 against promoted teams.
  • I predict Manchester United earn all three points at St. Mary’s Stadium.

Seeking an end to their two-match losing streak, Manchester United travel to face Southampton. 

Prior to the international break, the Red Devils lost 3-0 at home to Liverpool, their second straight defeat following a road loss to Brighton. 

Southampton has yet to earn points this season. In their last match, they traveled to Brentford and received a 3-1 thumping. 

Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for this fixture. 

Southampton vs. Manchester United Odds, Premier League

  • Southampton Moneyline: +333
  • Manchester United Moneyline: -135
  • Draw Moneyline: +290
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-160/+115)
  • Both Teams to Score: Yes (-160), No (+110)

Southampton vs. Manchester United Prediction: Moneyline

My prediction for Saturday’s Southampton vs. Manchester United fixture is the Manchester United Moneyline (-135). 

I hate that I have to make this bet. I can’t even remember the last time I put real dollars on Manchester United. 

But there’s evidence supporting a bet on the Red Devils, who have won 13 of their last 14 against promoted teams. 

United has lost two straight, yes, but they thoroughly dominated the opening match against Fulham. 

Erik ten Hag’s squad only won the match 1-0. However, expected goals finished 2.4 to 0.4 in favor of the hosts. 

Even if you discount the Alejandro Garnacho attempt worth 0.67 xG and zero psxG in the 94th minute, United won the psxG battle 2.1 to 0.9, per fbref.com. 

Plus, Southampton has actually run lucky in their last two matches. The Saints posted a -3 goal differential compared to a -4.1 psxGDiff against Nottingham Forest and Brentford. 

Two systems also suggest United is worth a bet. 

First, early moneyline moves on favorites tend to signal the correct side. Since 2012, favorites in games 1-9 that see their moneyline rise are 67.5% SU, assuming two factors:

  • The previous head-to-head result was either +0 or +1
  • The underdog’s previous game margin fell between -8 and -1

When those favorites are coming off a loss, they’re 19-5 SU (79.2%), including 11-2 SU (84.6%) off a multi-goal defeat. 

The other system suggests fading previous dogs early. 

Since 2012, favorites priced between -205 and -105 in games 2-10 are 78% SU, assuming three factors:

  • The underdog’s previous game margin fell between -4 and +0
  • The underdog was an underdog in their previous game
  • The previous head-to-head result fell between +0 and +4

When those favorites are playing off a loss, they’re 24-7 SU and have dropped all three points only four times. 

Based on those outlays, lay the juice with United off an extended rest period. 

Southampton Record, Last 5 Matches

  • Aug. 31 at Brentford: 1-3, L
  • Aug. 28 at Cardiff City: 5-3, W (EFL Cup)
  • Aug. 24 vs. Nottingham Forest: 0-1, L
  • Aug. 17 at Newcastle United: 0-1, L
  • Aug. 10 vs. Getafe: 0-0, D (Friendly)

Manchester United Record, Last 5 Matches

  • Sept. 1 vs. Liverpool: 0-3, L
  • Aug. 24 at Brighton: 1-2, L
  • Aug. 16 vs. Fulham: 1-0, W
  • Aug. 10 vs. Man City: 1-1, D (City Win on PK’s)
  • Aug. 3 vs. Liverpool: 0-3, L (Friendly)

Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Southampton odds and Manchester United odds!

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedManchester CitySep. 287:30 a.m.St. James' Park
ArsenalLeicester CitySep. 2810 a.m.Emirates Stadium
BrentfordWest Ham UnitedSep. 2810 a.m.GTech Community Stadium
ChelseaBrighton & Hove AlbionSep. 2810 a.m.Stamford Bridge
EvertonCrystal PalaceSep. 2810 a.m.Goodison Park
Nottingham ForestFulhamSep. 2810 a.m.The City Ground
WolvesLiverpoolSep. 2812:30 p.m.Molineux
Ipswich TownAston VillaSep. 299 a.m.Portman Road
Manchester UnitedTottenhamSep. 2911:30 a.m.Old Trafford
BournemouthSouthamptonSep. 303 p.m. Vitality Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Manchester City4-1-0138
Liverpool4-0-1129
Aston Villa4-0-1123
Arsenal3-2-0115
Chelsea3-1-1106
Newcastle United3-1-1101
Brighton & Hove Albion2-3-094
Nottingham Forest2-3-092
Fulham2-2-182
Tottenham Hotspur2-1-274
Manchester United2-1-270
Brentford2-0-36-2
Bournemouth1-2-25-3
West Ham United1-1-34-4
Leicester City0-3-23-2
Crystal Palace0-3-23-3
Ipswich Town0-3-23-5
Southampton0-1-41-7
Everton0-1-41-9
Wolverhampton Wanderers0-1-41-9

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Aston Villa4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Bournemouth3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Brentford3-2-0.6002-0-01.0001-2-0.333
Brighton & Hove Albion3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Chelsea3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Crystal Palace2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Everton1-4-0.2000-2-0.0001-2-0.333
Fulham2-3-0.4002-1-0.6670-2-0.000
Ipswich Town3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Leicester City2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Liverpool4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Manchester City3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Manchester United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Newcastle United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Nottingham Forest3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Southampton1-4-0.2000-3-0.0001-1-0.500
Tottenham Hotspur2-3-0.4002-1-0.5000-2-0.000
West Ham United2-3-0.4000-3-0.0002-0-01.000
Wolverhampton Wanderers2-3-0.4000-2-0.0002-1-0.667
EPL Odds

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.