- Argentina is predicted to be a 1.5-goal favorite against Algeria.
- Argentina has won each of its last four World Cup matches against African nations.
- My Argentina vs Algeria prediction is Algeria Under 0.5 Goals (-115).
World Cup holders Argentina begin their quest for a second straight crown against Algeria.
The 2022 winners arrive at the latest edition in strong form. Argentina has won each of its last six matches and won the 2024 Copa America tournament.
Algeria enjoyed a decent run at the Africa Cup of Nations, reaching the quarterfinals. In its last World Cup appearance (2014), the African side reached the round of 16.
Check out the World Cup odds and my Argentina vs Algeria prediction.
Argentina vs Algeria: World Cup Odds
Algeria vs Argentina Prediction
Based on Algeria’s lackluster attacking metrics recently and Argentina’s stout defensive record, my Argentina vs Algeria prediction is Algeria Under 0.5 Goals (-115).
Anyone who took in Algeria’s pre-tournament friendly against the Netherlands saw the defense struggle. Over the entire match, they surrendered 1.9 expected goals and three big chances.
In the opening 45 minutes, Algeria survived two missed big scoring chances. They ultimately won 1-0 thanks to an 86th-minute tally against a rotated Dutch defense.
As underdogs, it’s traditionally easier to score in a neutral game state. Had the Netherlands converted its early chances, I wonder if the defensive performance takes a step forward.
Argentina showed at the 2022 World Cup it can withstand chances in a positive game state.
While the defense surrendered two goals off 0.15 xG against Saudi Arabia in the opener, the defense largely surrendered goals from the lead against good attacks.
France and the Netherlands came from 2-0 down to force extra time. I don’t need to tell anyone Algeria lacks the attacking prowess of those teams.
I’m more focused on Argentina’s performances against Mexico, Poland, Australia and Croatia. The defense surrendered only one goal in those matches off 1.75 expected goals.
In a March friendly against Uruguay, Algeria failed to put a shot on target. In the AFCON quarterfinals. Algeria managed only 0.13 xG off three shots against Nigeria.
Again, Algeria failed to put a shot on target in that fixture.
Argentina offers the stiffest defensive test of those three teams. Given that matchup edge, I predict Algeria finishes under 0.5 goals at a higher rate than these odds suggest.
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