Below, bettors can find World Cup odds and a Canada vs Morocco prediction for their round of 16 clash in Houston.
Canada vs Morocco: World Cup Odds
Canada vs Morocco: Anytime Goal Odds
Morocco vs Canada Prediction
Based on Canada’s rest advantage over Morocco and their strong defensive record against Switzerland, my Canada vs Morocco prediction is Morocco 1H Under 0.5 Goals (-118).
We saw this matchup four years ago during the 2022 World Cup group stage. Morocco won 2-0 against Jesse Marsch’s Canada, but the attack ran wildly lucky against its metrics.
The Atlas Lions scored twice off 0.8 expected goals, including a Hakim Ziyech screamer on four minutes. Expected goals rated Morocco’s opener as a 0.07 xG/0.37 post-shot xG attempt.
For the entire match, Morocco amassed only 0.53 expected goals and a single big scoring chance. Post-shot xG rated Morocco’s attacking effort as a 0.58 performance.
Now, the 2022 semifinalists face a tricky matchup against Canada on Saturday. After going to penalty kicks against the Netherlands in Monterrey, Morocco faces a quick turnaround.
They’ll enter Saturday’s meeting with one fewer day of preparation than Canada. Marsch’s team played South Africa on Sunday in Los Angeles without needing extra time.
For all my questions about Canada’s defense, the unit produced a good performance early against Switzerland.
The Swiss reached 0.74 expected goals in the opening half to close the group stage. But the UEFA outfit managed only 0.31 post-shot xG with one shot on target over 0.2.
Switzerland’s output came with 70% possession, a figure Morocco should reach given its performance against the Netherlands.
Surprisingly, Morocco held 51% of the ball in the first half against the Dutch. It rose to 79% in the second half, culminating in 70% for the match.
Against a low block, Morocco reached its 0.6 first-half post-shot xG output with a couple well-placed shots.
The Atlas Lions reached that figure off only 0.18 xG. None of its attempts cleared 0.1 xG, demonstrating their chances came close to missing the target entirely.
In a world where Morocco avoided extra time, I would carry more optimism about the attack. However, I predict Morocco will stay under this line due to a rest discrepancy and their metrics.
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