This ACC Playoff Sleeper Has My Favorite Schedule of 2026

Florida State got jobbed at the end of the 2023 season, missing the CFP after an undefeated season because of an untimely injury to ACC Player of the Year Jordan Travis. Since then, the Seminoles are 7-18.

That dive-bomb has a lot of FSU fans talking about Mike Norvell’s record – and his $51 million buyout. For some in Tallahassee, Norvell’s firing is a matter of when, not if.

But I’m actually pretty bullish on Florida State this year. If the roster is good enough to compete around the top of the ACC, then the schedule lays out incredibly well for them.

Florida State Football 2026 Schedule Preview

Let’s start at the top. Florida State gets a tune-up game in Week 0 against New Mexico State before hosting SMU on Monday night during Week 1. There are so many advantages to this setup.

First of all, the Seminoles get to host a key conference competitor at home. FSU will have played live-fire football the week before, while SMU will be playing its first game of the season. Historically, that’s a big edge for the team that’s already played.

In Week 2, Florida State gets a bye to prepare for Alabama – a team it beat last year, despite finishing the season with only five wins. Alabama will play a tricky trap game against Kentucky in Week 2 before stepping back to the nonconference in Week 3. 

FSU closes September with a Week 4 game against FCS Central Arkansas.

This is one of the greatest September schedules I’ve ever seen. The built-in advantages and tune-ups, and how they all fit together, could create a huge tailwind for an FSU team that’s surely desperate to get back to playing games that matter. 

We can all imagine what an FSU season would look like if it ended with Norvell’s dismissal. I think the market is completely asleep on the other tail of outcomes, though – the one where FSU capitalizes on its schedule breaks, grows in confidence with a win against SMU and a close loss in Tuscaloosa, then goes on to dominate most of the rest of its schedule.

Write FSU in for a loss in its rivalry game against Miami in Week 7. That’s fine. Every other game on the schedule is winnable. And with two SEC teams on the schedule, Florida State can build a real case for CFP inclusion, even with multiple losses.

As you can probably tell, I like targeting Florida State football odds in this year’s college football win totals market. But more than that, I think the real value is FSU in the College Football Playoff odds. At 18-to-1, this is one of the best longshots on the board this season. 

That’s why I included them in my best college football futures bets of the summer.

  Yes @ +8000