4 Picks For the 2026 French Open Quarterfinals

The 2026 French Open has been one of the wildest, most unpredictable Grand Slam tournaments in years. Many of the favorites in both singles draws have already been eliminated. 

With the quarterfinal round playing out on Tuesday and Wednesday, there are some excellent tennis betting opportunities to consider in Roland Garros’ second week. 

Alexander Zverev vs. Rafael Jodar Prediction 

Zverev became the men’s favorite after Jannik Sinner lost in the second round – an odds shift I wrote about last week – and probably has the most to gain of any single player still playing in Paris. 

That framing is critical to understanding the price here. Inside the tennis world, this lucky break of a draw – no Djokovic, no Sinner, no Alcaraz – is the 29-year-old’s best opportunity to finally get on the board with a Slam victory.

But this is motivated reasoning, at least to some extent. Zverev is a good player who’s capable of winning this tournament, but he’s also had an easy walk through the draw so far. He’s only lost one set, to Quentin Halys in the third round. He hasn’t played a strong clay player yet.

Rafael Jodar is, unquestionably, a strong clay player. The Spanish teenager has arguably been the second-best player on tour this spring, behind only Sinner. He reached this quarterfinal with a superb fourth-round win over Pablo Carreno-Busta, dropping only five games after losing the match’s first two sets. 

Zverev should be favored in this game because he’s favored to win the tournament. But a -300 entry point against a player as good as Jodar feels to me like the market is showing a double bias. It’s titled in Zverev’s favor because of the macro stakes; it’s also tilted against Jodar because of his youth and lack of a Slam resume.

In short, the big price next to Jodar’s name opens up a value-betting opportunity – not just in the moneyline market, but in derivative spread markets, too. 

Prediction: Rafael Jodar +240; Rafael Jodar +4.5 Games (+100)

Jakub Mensix vs. Joao Fonseca Prediction

It’s hard to imagine a more unlikely Slam quarterfinal than this one. 

Jakub Mensik nearly collapsed on the court after his second-round win over Mariano Navone, with the fifth-set tiebreaker going to 11. When his third-round opponent teed up as Alex de Minaur, most handicappers (myself included) assumed the Aussie would run him to death.

But Mensik won in four tight sets, then knocked out Andrey Rublev on Sunday for good measure.

Mensik won’t even play as the favorite in this game. That honor rightly belongs to Joao Fonseca, who scored a second-round warm-up win over Dino Prizmic before eliminating Djokovic and Casper Ruud in back-to-back matches. Fonseca has no real clout as a household name, but the Brazilian is absolutely playing well enough to win the French Open title this weekend.

I like Fonseca to win this match and advance, but the moneyline market looks efficient to me. Instead of playing a side, I’d rather trust that these two guys will continue to play long, competitive, grueling sets. 

Prediction: Over 38.5 Games 

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Flavio Cobolli Prediction

The book gives away the game here by making the lesser-known No. 10 seed Cobolli a pk against No. 4 Felix Auger-Aliassime. The Canadian just isn’t known for his clay game and is 0-2 lifetime against Cobolli, having lost four of their five head-to-head sets.

I like Cobolli to win this quarter, and I’d consider aggressive positions that capture upper-tail outcomes. 

Prediction: Flavio Cobolli -110; Flavio Cobolli -1.5 Sets (+154)

Anna Kalinskaya vs. Paja Chwalinska Prediction 

Deep tournament runs are not uncommon from Grand Slam qualifiers on the WTA side, and so Roland Garros has a successful qualifier Paja Chwalinska playing tour veteran Anna Kalinskaya for a spot in the semifinals. This is another match that’s basically a pick ‘em.

The traditional wisdom is that, once you’re this deep into a serious tournament, you have to stop handicapping the qualifier like a scrappy underdog and treat them like a real threat. But in this particular case, I think Chwalinska’s success may be just as much about a lucky path through the women’s draw as anything else. 

The names look impressive – Qinwen Zheng, Elise Mertens, Maria Sakkari – but each one can be contextualized.

Sakkari is 30 years old and hasn’t had a winning season on tour in two years.

Zheng hasn’t been healthy and owns exactly three total clay-court wins in the last year. 

Mertens is also in the latter half of her career and doesn’t play much clay. In fact, none of these opponents are strong clay players.

Like most Russians, Kalinskaya is best on a harder, faster surface. But she’s still the better player in this match and, in my opinion, available at a bargain price. 

Prediction: Anna Kalinskaya -110; Kalinskaya Wins 2-0 (+190)

French Open Best Bets: 2026 Quarterfinals

• Rafael Jodar +240
• Mensix/Fonseca Over 38.5 Games
• Flavio Cobolli -110
• Anna Kalinskaya -110