Padres vs Dodgers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 12, NLDS

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 12, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Dodgers are -190 favorites vs the Padres
  • Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish (1-0), 1.28 ERA
  • Dodgers starting pitcher: Clayton Kershaw
  • Watch the game on Fox Sports 1

The San Diego Padres (+155) visit Dodger Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers (-190) on Wednesday, October 12, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:37pm EDT in Los Angeles.

The Dodgers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).

The Padres vs Dodgers Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are 91-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Dodgers are 98-65 ATS.

Padres vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres+1.5 -135O 7 -105+155
Dodgers -1.5 +110U 7 -115-190

Padres vs Dodgers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 58.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Dodgers and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 35 games (+16.25 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 38 of his last 63 away games (+14.20 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+12.75 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Mike Clevinger has hit the Strikeouts Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.10 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 26 away games (+11.55 Units / 37% ROI)

Best Dodgers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+12.75 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+11.35 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Julio Urias has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.85 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Tony Gonsolin has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.75 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Austin Barnes has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 27 games (+9.15 Units / 34% ROI)

Dodgers vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cody Bellinger 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Freddie Freeman 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Gavin Lux 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Justin Turner 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Max Muncy 0.5 +350 0.5 -650

Dodgers vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cody Bellinger 0.5 -105 0.5 -140
Freddie Freeman 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Gavin Lux 0.5 -140 0.5 +100
Justin Turner 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Max Muncy 0.5 -120 0.5 -115

Dodgers vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cody Bellinger 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Freddie Freeman 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Gavin Lux 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Justin Turner 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Max Muncy 0.5 +185 0.5 -275

Dodgers vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Clayton Kershaw 4.5 -135 4.5 -105
Yu Darvish 5.5 +110 5.5 -160
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 73 of their last 141 games (+11.00 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 29 games (+8.50 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 38 away games (+7.55 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 23 away games (+6.70 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 away games (+6.00 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 97 of their last 160 games (+28.80 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 67 of their last 90 games (+18.95 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 25 of their last 36 games at home (+17.35 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.15 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games at home (+6.10 Units / 13% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 75-91 against the Run Line (-22.45 Units / -10.82% ROI).

  • 91-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.5 Units / -5.03% ROI
  • 78-83 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.7 Units / -6.96% ROI
  • 83-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.6 Units / -1.42% ROI

Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 98-65 against the Run Line (+27.25 Units / 13.76% ROI).

  • 112-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.95 Units / 2.07% ROI
  • 68-84 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.65 Units / -13.74% ROI
  • 84-68 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.95 Units / 4.99% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .157 (69-for-439) against Yu Darvish’s fastball since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .261 — 100th Percentile.

Yu Darvish has a strike rate of 71% (659/934) in two strike counts this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 93rd Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .094 (16-for-170) against Yu Darvish’s elevated fastball since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .221 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (12/100) against Yu Darvish on inside fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.

Clayton Kershaw: Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Clayton Kershaw has thrown his slider 64% of the time (448/706) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total SL; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 39% (121/312) against Clayton Kershaw when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Clayton Kershaw has thrown breaking pitches 64% of the time (450/706) when behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Clayton Kershaw has allowed an OPS of just .749 (174 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 1.055 — 100th Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers

The Padres are 74-25 (.747) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Padres are 22-2 (.917) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

The Padres are 32-9 (.780) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Padres are 46-37 (.554) on the road this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .468.

Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Dodgers are 25-89 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .125.

The Dodgers are 56-24 (.700) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .532.

The Dodgers are 54-27 (.667) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .468.

The Dodgers are 100-20 (.833) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

Padres hitters have drawn 420 walks in 4,417 PA’s (10%) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.

Padres hitters have chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against RHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .764 (3,757 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .693.

The Dodgers have a winning percentage of 67% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Dodgers hitters have chased 24% of pitches out of the zone against RHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .812 (2,136 PA’s) in the first 3 innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .709.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Padres pitchers have walked 11 of 71 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (8 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (16 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .191 against Padres pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .221.

Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 2.80 (1435.1 IP) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.

Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 2.54 (718.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Dodgers have have still managed to win 43% of the time since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

The Dodgers have allowed 3.26 runs per game (528/162) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.46.

Dodgers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Michael Grove (Dodgers): Knee, D15
  • Victor González (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob Amaya (Dodgers): Undisclosed, D60
  • Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Phillip Bickford (Dodgers): Shoulder, D15
  • Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): ACL, D60
  • Kevin Pillar (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
  • James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Duffy (Dodgers): Hand, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.