NBA Award Picks 2026: Expert Predictions for Every Major Trophy

The 2025-26 NBA season will come to an end on Sunday, meaning award races will soon be decided. Ballots are typically sent out the day after the regular season ends, with voters having roughly 36 hours before the submission deadline.

This year’s voting window might be delayed due to Luka Doncic’s appeal, but that doesn’t really change the fact that this weekend will serve as the lasting impression on voters.

With that in mind, I’ve assessed the latest NBA odds to come up with my picks for each award race heading into the final weekend:

NBA Award Picks for 2025-26 Season

MVP

Starting with the biggest race, Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander appears on his way to winning a second straight MVP award. He’s a -10000 favorite at BetMGM to become the 14th player in NBA history to win back-to-back MVP awards.

As the best player on the best team, Gilgeous-Alexander has a flawless MVP resume. He’s averaging 31.1 points, 6.6 assists, and 4.3 rebounds on 55.3% shooting. He broke the record for most consecutive 20-point games, highlighting his consistency in a race featuring plenty of star power.

To be honest, I’m not even sure how the MVP race was ever up for debate. San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama has only played 1,839 minutes (420 fewer than SGA) this year. For what it’s worth, Joel Embiid played 2,284 minutes in his 2023 MVP campaign, which prompted the league to implement the 65-game rule the following year.

Prediction: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

NBA Defensive Player of the Year

Wembanyama’s playing time isn’t as much of a concern in the NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds race. He’s listed as a -5000 favorite at BetMGM, with Oklahoma City’s Chet Holmgren (+550) serving as his only threat.

The only reason Wembanyama hasn’t locked up this award is that he’s yet to play 65 games. He’s at 63 entering the final weekend, though the NBA Cup final does count as his 64th contest.

Wembanyama has been the best defender in the league by a wide margin. He’s averaging 3.1 blocks and 9.5 defensive rebounds. According to Databallr, the Spurs’ defensive rating is nine points better with him on the floor.

If Wembanyama doesn’t play at least 20 minutes in one of the Spurs’ final two games due to his current rib injury, Holmgren would be a worthy DPOY. However, I suspect the 65-game rule would be scrapped before next year if that happened.

Prediction: Victor Wembanyama

NBA Rookie of the Year

The NBA Rookie of the Year odds race has been an intense battle all year.

Dallas Mavericks Cooper Flagg entered the season as a -225 favorite, making him the biggest preseason favorite to win Rookie of the Year since at least 2007. But he was passed as the favorite by Charlotte Hornets guard Kon Knueppel twice this season.

Flagg reclaimed the lead entering the final week after scoring nearly 100 points in two games last weekend. He’s now listed as a -200 favorite, though Knueppel isn’t far behind at +130.

I think this race will be a true toss-up, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Flagg’s final push gives him a slight edge when ballots are submitted.

Prediction: Cooper Flagg

NBA Sixth Man of the Year

As the most competitive award contest of the season, the NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds have seen significant movement. There have been eight favorites at BetMGM since this market launched last summer.

Spurs guard Keldon Johnson is in front during the home stretch, trading at -400 to win the award. He’s made a solid impact off the bench for a San Antonio team that is second in the Western Conference.

Winning matters for voters in this race. The last five 6MOY winners have been on teams that won 52 or more games. As such, Johnson fits the profile much more than Miami Heat forward Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Prediction: Keldon Johnson

NBA Most Improved Player

There have been seven different favorites in the NBA Most Improved Player odds this year. The market eventually got it right with Atlanta Hawks guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker now serving as a -1200 favorite.

In his first season with the Hawks, Alexander-Walker has increased his scoring by more than 11 points per game. He’s averaging 20.9 points per contest on 45.8% shooting to go along with 3.5 rebounds and 3.7 assists. Alexander-Walker has played a key role in Atlanta’s scorching hot run this spring.

Prediction: Nickeil Alexander-Walker

NBA Coach of the Year

This is the only award in which I disagree with who should be the favorite. Detroit Pistons coach J.B. Bickerstaff is -300 in the latest NBA Coach of the Year odds, but I’d vote for Boston Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla (+200) instead.

It’s not that I’d have a problem with Bickerstaff winning this award. After all, the Pistons are the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference after entering the year with a preseason win total of 46.5. However, this was supposed to be a lost year for the Celtics, who are No. 2 in the East after playing a majority of the season without Jayson Tatum.

Boston, which had a win total of 41.5 in the preseason, is now the East favorite following Tatum’s return. Mazzulla deserves a ton of credit for managing a team that had a major roster overhaul in the offseason.

Prediction: Joe Mazzulla