2 Best NFL Player Props for TNF: Bills vs Lions

The traditional TNF slate kicks off from the new Highmark Stadium with Bills vs Lions.

Both teams captured Week 1 wins in dramatic fashion. Buffalo won 36-31 in a shootout against the Texans while Detroit, after blowing a 21-0 lead, beat the Saints in overtime.

Beyond side, total and moneyline markets, bettors also have access to myriad player props. Below, I’ve outlined my best player prop predictions for the showcase based on NFL odds.

Bills vs Lions Predictions: TNF Player Props

Dalton Kincaid Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

I place zero faith in the Detroit secondary right now. Albeit from a positive game state, the defense allowed Tyler Shough to pass for 410 yards on Sunday.

There’s a world in which Josh Allen comes close to replicating the feat. It’s not unlikely that Buffalo’s defense surrenders points and that Detroit finds itself in a competitive game.

Any Buffalo receiver is capable of clearing their line. I focus on Kincaid due to his Week 1 output and how bad the Lions performed against Saints tight ends.

Kincaid caught five receptions for 130 yards. No other Buffalo tight end earned more than one target. It came against a brutally difficult Texans defense with better personnel than Detroit.

Kelvin Sheppard’s defense saw multiple tight ends rack up yards.

Juwan Johnson caught three receptions on seven targets for 54 yards and a touchdown. Noah Fant added four receptions on eight targets for 33 yards and a score.

It’s a continued problem for the Lions dating back to last year. Detroit allowed eight targets and 57 yards, on average, to opposing tight ends.

In Week 1, Detroit ran single-high coverage at one of the highest rates in the league. Last year, Kincaid ranked 17th amongst all pass catches in yards per route run against the scheme.

Josh Allen Over 6.5 Rushing Attempts (-125)

Allen stayed under this benchmark by the hook in Week 1. However, the failure ended a recent streak of successes for the Bills quarterback.

The 2025 MVP finished over this benchmark in seven of his last 10 games, averaging 8.2 carries per game. Over his last 19 games, he cleared this number 10 times.

Most encouraging about the Allen prop prediction? Game state has (somewhat) proven agnostic in his clearance rate.

In Buffalo’s last 13 wins, he cleared this line seven times. Sample six losses and he still cleared it three times.

He gets a Lions defense that surrendered four attempts to Tyler Shough in Week 1. Dating back to last season, more mobile quarterbacks saw a higher attempt rate against the Detroit defense.

Lamar Jackson scrambled seven times in Week 3. Patrick Mahomes added 10 attempts against the Lions in Week 6. Jalen Hurts matched Mahomes’ total in Week 11 against Detroit.

Plus, Allen showed he could clear this number earlier against a better Lions defense. When these teams met in 2024, he rushed for 68 yards and two touchdowns on 11 attempts.

Those factors lead me to predict Allen surpasses his Week 1 output by at least one attempt.