- I predict Josh Jacobs finishes over 75.5 rushing yards against Chicago.
- My prediction for Cole Kmet’s over/under receiving yards prop (14.5 yards).
An NFC North rubber match concludes the Saturday wild-card slate: Bears vs Packers.
In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the matchup. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.
Bears vs Packers Prediction: Wild Card Player Props
Josh Jacobs Over 75.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
Jacobs concluded his year clearly banged up. Two of his four worst yardage outputs of the season came in December.
But the Packers removed an injury designation for Jacobs after a week off. Now, he gets a chance to exploit a poor Bears run defense.
On plays excluding turnovers, Chicago ranks 28th in rushing EPA per play and 29th in rushing success rate.
At full health in Week 14, Jacobs dominated Chicago. He rushed for 86 yards on 20 attempts and added a touchdown.
Irrespective of opponent, Jacobs delivered efficient outputs against this line with enough volume.
For the season, Jacobs notched at least 17 attempts eight times. He cleared this benchmark in seven of those contests.
Pair that with a lack of injury concern, and I predict Jacobs clears this number for the second time against Chicago.
Cole Kmet Under 14.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Kmet cleared this number in both games against the Packers this season. He’s also cleared this benchmark in five straight games.
However, those successes coincided with Rome Odunze’s foot injury.
Odunze (appears) back in the fold for the wild-card round. Kmet also has to cope with the emergence of Colston Loveland, who notched 23 targets over his last two games.
During the middle of the season, Kmet rarely saw many targets. From Weeks 6-13, he recorded over 1.5 receptions only twice.
Those successes came at Minnesota (5-45) and at Philadelphia (3-36). Curiously, both defenses rank top-five in yards allowed to opposing tight ends.
Green Bay sits just outside that threshold at sixth – 44.7 per game to tight ends – and performs significantly worse against wide receivers.
During the regular season, Green Bay ranked 20th or worse in pass defense DVOA against WR1, WR2 and WR3, per ftnfantasy.com.
Plus, Green Bay rates out as a worse rush defense for the season. Entering this game, the Packers rank 18th in pass defense DVOA vs. 22nd in rush defense.
If Chicago runs the ball effectively, it likely will lead to fewer opportunities for Kmet. Accordingly, I predict he stays under a low benchmark.
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