NFL Expert Picks Wild Card: Philly Covers at Home

Below, bettors can find my NFL betting predictions for the wild-card round based on NFL odds at BetMGM. 

Denver and Seattle have earned the bye weeks for their respective conferences. 

On the AFC side, bettors get Jaguars vs Bills, Patriots vs Chargers and the Texans against the winner of Steelers-Ravens. 

In the NFC, it’s Bears vs Packers, Eagles vs 49ers and Panthers vs Rams. 

Let’s dive into the selections. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

NFL Playoff Predictions: Wild Card Round

Patriots vs Chargers Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers Spread (+3.5, -110)

Based on the Chargers’ strength in the secondary and Justin Herbert’s strong record as an underdog, my Patriots vs Chargers prediction is the Chargers Spread (+3.5, -110). 

New England may win this game, but it’s too many points to lay with an inexperienced postseason quarterback. 

Drake Maye has built his MVP candidacy on the deep ball. Only the Rams have completed more passes 20 yards downfield than the Patriots. 

But the Chargers’ defense has allowed the second-fewest 20+ yard completions this season. Additionally, the Chargers qualify as Maye’s toughest pass defense since Week 8. 

If the deep passes suddenly dry up, I question how the Patriots offense moves the ball at a rate that earns a high margin of victory. 

On the other side of the ball, the Chargers offense gets a reprieve this round. Excluding Week 18, Los Angeles ranked 19th in offensive DVOA against the 14th-hardest set of defenses. 

Comparatively, New England ranked 25th in defensive DVOA, having played the easiest set of opposing offenses. 

Add in Justin Herbert & Jim Harbaugh are 5-2-1 ATS as underdogs, and I predict the Chargers cover at New England. 

Eagles vs 49ers Prediction: Eagles Spread (-3.5, -105)

Based on the glaring mismatch between the Niners offense and Eagles defense, my Eagles vs 49ers prediction is the Philadelphia Eagles Spread (-3.5, -105). 

It’s a limited sample, but Brock Purdy is 0-4 ATS in his career as a market underdog. Now, the potent Niners offense gets arguably the best defense left in the postseason. 

From Week 10-17, Vic Fangio’s unit ranked fourth in EPA per play and third in defensive success rate. That even coincided with Jalen Carter missing a few games! 

Even more impressive about Philly is that the unit, for the first 17 weeks, ranked sixth in defensive DVOA, having played the second-hardest set of opposing offenses. 

The Niners ranked second in offensive DVOA over the same sample, having faced the third-hardest set of defenses. 

However, the team struggled against good units. Seattle limited San Francisco to three points in Week 18 after allowing 17 in Week 1. 

San Francisco managed 26 at Cleveland, but defensive turnovers aided their effort. Philadelphia takes better care of the ball, so it’ll force longer drives for Purdy & company. 

While I maintain concerns about Philly’s offense, a banged-up Niners defense offers a decent get-right spot. Given those factors, I predict the Eagles cover at home. 

Steelers vs Texans Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers Spread (+3.5, -118)

Based on Pittsburgh’s edge on the ground and their ability to pressure C.J. Stroud, my Steelers vs Texans prediction is the Pittsburgh Steelers Spread (+3.5, -118). 

You’re going to hear all week that Mike Tomlin can’t win a playoff game. However, the context of that claim must be considered. 

Here are Tomlin’s recent ATS failures in the postseason:

• 2025: +9.5 at Baltimore Ravens
• 2024: +10 at Buffalo Bills
• 2022: +11.5 at Kansas City Chiefs

What do those teams have in common? All three finished with a +20% offensive DVOA rating or higher. 

I reference that to illustrate that this Texans offense is not operating at that level. 

For the season, Houston ranks 19th in offensive DVOA (-2.5%) and 16th in weighted DVOA (-1.5%). 

The team can’t run the ball (29th), which wouldn’t matter except that the Steelers rush defense has performed markedly better with Derrick Harmon available. 

Essentially, you’re asking Stroud to complete third-and-long attempts to create margin constantly. Of concern – he ranks 18th in DVOA against man coverage. 

Do I have concerns about Pittsburgh’s offense against Houston’s defense? Of course. But two factors give me optimism. 

First is Pittsburgh’s ability to run the ball. Second is that the offensive line is good enough to limit Houston’s pass rush. 

Given those factors, I’m confident enough that Pittsburgh can move the ball and stay within a key number.

Jaguars vs Bills Prediction: Jaguars 1H Over 13.5 Points (+110)

Based on Jacksonville’s improved offensive metrics and Buffalo’s inexperience against good offenses, my Jaguars vs Bills prediction is the Jaguars 1H Over 13.5 Points (+110). 

Inconsistency plagued the Jaguars offense early in the season. From Week 1-7, Coen’s offense ranked 22nd in EPA per play and 19th in offensive success rate. 

After Jacksonville’s Week 8 bye, the team completely turned a corner, especially after acquiring Jakobi Meyers. 

From Week 9 onward, Jacksonville ranked seventh in EPA per play and 11th in offensive success rate. 

With Meyers, the passing game ranked third in EPA and fourth in success rate from Weeks 10-18. 

Some games came against easy defenses, admittedly. But the offense still managed 20, 14 and 17 first-half points against Houston, Los Angeles (A) and Denver. 

Now the offense gets a weak Buffalo defense. Buffalo arrives at this game ranked 20th in defensive DVOA, having faced the easiest set of opposing offenses, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Away from home, the defense has struggled early against competent offenses. New England managed 24 in the first half at home, with Houston scoring 20, albeit on short rest. 

Even a battered and bruised Browns offense got to 10 at home against Buffalo. Irrespective of the opponent, Buffalo surrendered 13 first-half points per game away from home. 

Only Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Carolina and the Jets stayed under this benchmark against Buffalo at home. All four rank behind the Jaguars in both cumulative and weighted offensive DVOA. 

Meanwhile, Jacksonville leads the NFL with 18 first-half points per game at home. Irrespective of venue, the unit averaged 14.9, good for the fourth-best mark in the NFL. 

Accordingly, I predict the Jaguars start fast against a bad defense. 

NFL Playoff Picks Against the Spread: Consensus Picks

Based on NFL public betting data, the Chicago Bears (+1) have received the highest percentage of bets to cover the spread. 

As of Friday morning, 61% of bets placed support the Bears to cover as a home underdog. Chicago has also received 68% of straight moneyline bets to win outright.

Every other wild-card round game features one side receiving 59% of bets or lower to cover the spread. Notably, four teams have received under 50% of bets to cover against a majority of money wagered to cover.

Those teams are Green Bay, Buffalo, Philadelphia and the Chargers.