After a dramatic Week 4 that reshaped the NFL landscape, I’m back with some contest recommendations ahead of the Week 5 Sunday schedule.
I hope you like unpopular favorites.
As a reminder, this is not a best bets column. These are picks specifically designed for contests and NFL pick pools, where game theory is just as important as handicapping.
If you are looking for NFL bets, might I suggest my colleague Nick Hennion’s NFL Week 5 picks article?
Patriots vs. Raiders Prediction
The consensus among many talking heads and NFL bettors this week is that the Raiders shouldn’t be getting the hook here. This should be New England -2.5 or New England -3.
But if that’s the case, why hasn’t the NFL betting market come back down and equalized at Patriots -3?
The Raiders are getting plenty of action at BetMGM as one of the biggest public dogs of the week, but it appears to be square money. If there were legitimate interest in the Raiders, this would settle in on the key number in a hurry.
I like this as a contest target because it’s both a contest zag and a play against a trendy dog.
NFL Contest Prediction: Patriots -3.5
Commanders vs. Giants Prediction
If you disliked my thought process on the last game, you’re about to be disappointed. Like the Patriots, Washington sat at -3.5 throughout the week, matched up against the team that’s currently in first place in the division.
That number got bumped down to Commanders -4 when the team confirmed Thursday that quarterback Jayden Daniels was indeed likely to play this weekend.
At BetMGM, players are loading up on New York Giants football odds this week, and the Commanders are the No. 3 least popular spread bet for the entire weekend of games.
But the Giants are deeply regression-bound, and Washington’s defense has been one of the quiet surprises of the season. I think that unit terrorizes Jameis Winston in a road start, and Daniels leads the team to a win despite some injury issues across the roster.
NFL Contest Prediction: Commanders -4
Best Contest Bets for NFL Week 5
- Patriots -3.5
- Commanders -4
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