Best NFL Player Props for MNF: Seahawks vs Bears

Closing out the Week 8 action is a marquee NFC clash from Seattle: Seahawks vs Bears.

Beyond side, total and moneyline markets, bettors also have access to myriad player props. Below, I’ve outlined my best player prop predictions for the showcase based on NFL odds.

Seahawks vs Bears Prediction: MNF Player Props

Caleb Williams Under 224.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Williams surpassed 300 yards in passing in each of his last two games. However, he takes a massive step forward in opponent quality in Chicago’s trip to Seattle.

Seattle ranks second in pass defense DVOA at -22%, per FTN Fantasy. Only once all year – Week 3 at Washington – has the defense surrendered a below league-average rating.

Williams’ last two clearances came against Atlanta sans A.J. Terrell and a shaky Patriots secondary traveling on a short week.

Both defenses rate well behind Seattle over the course of the entire season. Atlanta owns a -6.2% pass DVOA rating while New England sits at -2.2% before opponent adjustments.

Despite adverse weather conditions, Williams threw for under 150 yards against a comparable Vikings defense.

For the season, Seattle’s defense has allowed 158 yards to opposing quarterbacks. It includes quality performances against some of the league’s top passers.

Drake Maye, Brock Purdy and Patrick Mahomes all stayed under 190 passing yards this year. Not since Matthew Stafford late last year has a quarterback cleared this line.

Much as I respect the Bears offense, it’s not quite reaching the level of last year’s Rams unit. Accordingly, I predict Williams regresses against his prior performances vs. a strong defense.

Luther Burden Under 52.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Burden required only four receptions to reach 130 yards against New England. Two weeks ago, he caught eight passes for 95 yards against an injured Atlanta secondary.

In addition to limiting quarterback yards, Seattle mitigates opportunities to opposing receivers. Entering Week 8, they’ve allowed 91.7 yards per game to all opposing wide receivers.

Driving up that average? A poor performance from Seattle against the elite 49ers offense. Brock Purdy threw for 189 yards against the Seahawks, 113 of which went to Mike Evans.

While it needs to be taken with a grain of salt due to Williams’ brief absence, Burden has largely achieved his success on few targets against bad defenses.

The aforementioned 32.5 yards per target against New England qualified as Burden’s highest output this season. Only once all year has he cleared 10 targets (Week 3 vs Philadelphia).

Burden stayed under this line twice this season against more comparable defenses to Seattle. He notched only four receptions for 47 yards at Green Bay and three for 32 vs. Minnesota.

Currently, those three defenses all possess a -10% pass DVOA rating or higher. While he succeeded at a sixth-ranked Atlanta defense, it came with Atlanta missing top corner Terrell.

Those factors lead me to buck Burden’s 70.1 yards per game average and sell high against his hardest opponent to date.