Best NFL Player Props for MNF: Vikings vs Bills

Minnesota will try to avoid consecutive losses in Vikings vs Bills on MNF.

Beyond side, total and moneyline markets, bettors also have access to myriad player props. Below, I’ve outlined my best player prop predictions for the showcase based on NFL odds.

Vikings vs Bills Prediction: MNF Player Props

Carson Wentz Over 213.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Buffalo profiles as one of the NFL’s more high-variance defenses. The unit improved to 20th in DVOA after last week, but the unit faced a third-string quarterback.

Now, the unit faces a Vikings passing attack featuring good weapons.

Plus, I expect Wentz can’t look any worse than Kyler Murray, who held the ball too long and regularly missed receivers.

Buffalo ranks 18th in pass defense DVOA, but it allows 269 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.

Raising their 12.5% pass defense DVOA rating is a -67.3% performance against Joe Fagnano at home off a bye.

Meanwhile, Minnesota has shown signs of life on offense recently. After averaging a -26.4% pass offense DVOA rating in the first three games, the average rose to 16.6% since Week 4.

It includes a 34.7% rating in New Orleans and a 23.4% rating last week in Detroit. In those two games, Murray finished with at least 210 yards.

Accordingly, I predict Wentz clears a low benchmark against a vulnerable pass defense.

Justin Jefferson Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-140)

Jefferson cleared this benchmark only twice all season. His most recent success came at New Orleans when he amassed 79 yards on six catches.

Before that success, Jefferson reached 92 yards in Week 1 against Green Bay, a superior pass defense to Buffalo. For the season, Green Bay ranks 15 spots ahead of Buffalo in pass defense DVOA.

Common between both the Packers and Bills’ coverage schemes? A healthy dose of zone coverage. Both defenses use it over 68% of the time.

This season, Jefferson dominated against the scheme. His 2.56 yards per route run against zone leads all Vikings skill players and ranks 17th in the entire NFL.

Buffalo additionally struggles to limit opposing top pass catchers. Pete Carmichael’s defense sits 31st in DVOA against WR1s, allowing 73 yards to those players on average.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Puka Nacua and Tre Tucker all cleared this line against Buffalo. Nico Collins came up short by only four yards.

Pair those trends with the buy-low opportunity on Jefferson, and I predict he clears his line.