Bills vs Vikings Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 9

• The Bills are -3 point favorites vs the Vikings
• Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
• Watch this game on ESPN | ABC | ESPD

The Buffalo Bills (6-1-0) visit U.S. Bank Stadium to take on the Minnesota Vikings (6-1-0) on Nov. 9. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 pm in Minneapolis, MN.

The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-130).

The Bills vs. Vikings Over/Under is 46.5 total points for the game.

Bet now on Vikings vs Bills & all NFL games with BetMGM

Bills vs. Vikings Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Bills vs. Vikings Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 59.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Bills vs Vikings Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Vikings will cover the spread with 52.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Vikings vs Bills and all NFL games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today

• Josh Palmer has hit the Receptions Under in his last 10 games (+10.40 Units / 63% ROI)
• Ty Johnson has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+10.00 Units / 72% ROI)
• Ty Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.90 Units / 57% ROI)
• Ty Johnson has hit the Longest Reception Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 53% ROI)
• Khalil Shakir has hit the Longest Reception Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.75 Units / 49% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Vikings players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Vikings Player Prop Best Bets Today

• Justin Jefferson has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.30 Units / 51% ROI)
• Justin Jefferson has hit the Longest Reception Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.60 Units / 50% ROI)
• Justin Jefferson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.55 Units / 50% ROI)
• Jordan Addison has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.05 Units / 41% ROI)
• Jordan Mason has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.25 Units / 66% ROI)

Bills Best Bets:

• The Buffalo Bills have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.05 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Buffalo Bills have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+6.90 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Buffalo Bills have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.30 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.25 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.95 Units / 24% ROI)

Vikings Best Bets:

• The Minnesota Vikings have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 19 games (+12.70 Units / 60% ROI)
• The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.95 Units / 56% ROI)
• The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+8.89 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.40 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+7.95 Units / 39% ROI)

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills are 5-2 (+2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI).

• Bills are 6-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.3 Units / 21.85% ROI
• Bills are 5-2 when betting the Over for +2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI
• BillsBillsBills are 2-5 when betting the Under for -3.5 Units / -45.45% ROI

Vikings Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Vikings are 4-3 (+0.65 Units / 8.39% ROI).

• Vikings are 6-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.8 Units / 40.42% ROI
• Vikings are 1-6 when betting the Over for -5.6 Units / -72.73% ROI
• Vikings are 6-1 when betting the Under for +4.9 Units / 63.64% ROI

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Vikings

Bills are 17-1 (.944) when scoring 22 or more points (2nd-best in NFL) and just .000 when scoring less than 22 points since the 2025 season (T-worst in NFL).

The Bills are 13-2 (.867) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2025 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Ravens have averaged just 1.9 sacks per game over that time span — T-3rd-worst in NFL.

The Bills are 3-1 (.750) after a win this season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .488.

The Bills are undefeated (3-0) when tied at the end of quarter 1 since the 2025 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Minnesota Vikings: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Vikings are undefeated (5-0) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .597.

The Vikings are undefeated (6-0) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .495.

The Vikings are undefeated (4-0) after a win this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .488.

The Vikings are winless (0-3) when allowing 27 or more points since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .195.

Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings were successful on just 31.0% of plays they ran with motion last week — 4th-worst in NFL. The Lions allowed a success rate of just 28.6% against motion last week — T-best in NFL.

Vikings WRs have averaged just 13.2 targets per game this season — lowest in NFL. The Lions have allowed 14.8 receptions per game to WRs this season — highest in NFL.

Vikings RBs have averaged just 1.5 yards after contact per carry this season — T-4th-worst in NFL. The Lions have allowed just 1.5 yards after contact per carry to RBs this season — T-5th-best in NFL.

The Bills have scored on 55% of their drives in the fourth quarter this season — T-2nd-best in NFL. The Ravens defense has allowed scores on 59.1% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Bills have been successful on 63.4% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2025 season — best in NFL. The Ravens have pressured opposing QBs on 16.7% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2025 season — worst in NFL.

The Bills have been successful on 50.4% of pass attempts with motion since the 2025 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Ravens have pressured opposing QBs on 20.4% of pass attempts against motion since the 2025 season — 4th-worst in NFL.

Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats

The Bills have averaged 7.3 yards per play on the road this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.6.

The Bills have completed passes for 20+ yards on 25 of their 171 total passing attempts (15%) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 9%.

The Bills have scored on 57% of their drives (36/63) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Bills have run successful plays on 61% of plays on play action passes since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

Minnesota Vikings Offense: Important Stats

The Vikings have converted first downs on just 33 of 70 plays (47%) on 3rd and short since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 60%.

The Vikings have averaged 0.13 epa per play against open coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.42.

The Vikings have averaged 0.16 epa per play against open coverage since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.40.

The Vikings ran 67% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in Week 7 — best in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats

The Bills defense has allowed successful plays on 77% of plays open coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 60%.

The Bills defense has allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 2 of 706 attempts (0%) since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1%.

The Bills defense have allowed 11.0 yards per play open coverage this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 9.4.

The Bills defense have allowed 0.51 epa per play first read passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.22.

Minnesota Vikings Defense: Important Stats

The Vikings defense has allowed a Completion Pct of just 54% (96 completions/178 attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 64%.

The Vikings defense has allowed successful plays on 35% of pass attempts from their own territory this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Vikings defense has allowed scores on 6% of opponent drives (1/18) in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

The Vikings defense has blitzed on 33% of plays this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

Looking to place a bet on this game with a First Bet Offer up to $1,500? Bet now on Vikings vs Bills and all NFL games with BetMGM

More NFL Betting Predictions:

• Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
• Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
• Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
• Passing Yards Prop Predictions
• Receptions Made Prop Predictions
• Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
• Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
• QB Interception Prop Predictions
• Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
• NFL Betting Previews: Every Game

More NFL Odds at BetMGM

If you’re looking for more NFL odds, check out the sportsbook’s betting markets throughout the year.

From futures like Rams Super Bowl odds and Lions odds to make the playoffs to game odds like spread, money lines, and totals, there’s never a break in the action.

Log in to your BetMGM account today — or sign up for a new account via the online sportsbook or BetMGM iOS app or BetMGM Android app — to start betting!