Chargers vs Bills Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 3

• The Bills are -7 point favorites vs the Chargers
• Total (Over/Under): 50 points
• Watch this game on FOX

The Los Angeles Chargers (0-2-0) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (2-0-0) on Sep. 27. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 pm in Orchard Park, NY.

The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7 (-105).

The Chargers vs. Bills Over/Under is 50 total points for the game.

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Chargers vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Chargers vs. Bills Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 65.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Chargers vs Bills Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread with 50.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chargers players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chargers Player Prop Bets Today

• Justin Herbert has hit the Interceptions Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+9.25 Units / 54% ROI)
• Justin Herbert has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.10 Units / 38% ROI)
• Tre Harris has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)
• Justin Herbert has hit the Longest Rush Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.45 Units / 29% ROI)
• Ladd McConkey has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.30 Units / 29% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today

• Dalton Kincaid has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 55% ROI)
• Ty Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 66% ROI)
• Ty Johnson has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.80 Units / 64% ROI)
• Josh Palmer has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.40 Units / 46% ROI)
• Ray Davis has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 87% ROI)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bills vs Chargers

Chargers Best Bets:

• The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+9.10 Units / 45% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in their last 6 away games (+6.10 Units / 87% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.75 Units / 58% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+4.40 Units / 52% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.30 Units / 23% ROI)

Bills Best Bets:

• The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.30 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+6.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Buffalo Bills have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Buffalo Bills have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.20 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+3.75 Units / 16% ROI)

Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers are 0-2 (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).

• Chargers are 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.7 Units / -100% ROI
• Chargers are 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
• ChargersChargersChargers are 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills are 2-0 (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).

• Bills are 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 56.34% ROI
• Bills are 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
• Bills are 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI

Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Chargers are undefeated (8-0) when leading at the end of the first half since the 2025 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .764.

The Chargers are undefeated (10-0) when leading at the end of the third quarter since the 2025 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .838.

The Chargers were undefeated (10-0) when leading at the end of the third quarter last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .839.

The Chargers are undefeated (3-0) when not committing any turnovers since the 2025 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .729.

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers

Bills are 14-0 (1.000) when scoring 22 or more points (T-best in NFL) and just .000 when scoring less than 22 points since the 2025 season (T-worst in NFL).

The Bills are undefeated (3-0) when tied at the end of quarter 1 since the 2025 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Bills are winless (0-5) when scoring less than 22 points since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .223.

The Bills are 11-1 (.917) when not losing a fumble since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .585.

Additional Matchup Notes for Los Angeles Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills

The Bills allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 38.7% of pass attempts last week — worst in NFL. The Chargers had pressured opposing QBs on 31.0% of passing plays last week — 4th-best in NFL.

The Bills have gone three and out on 0% of their drives in the first half this season — best in NFL. The Chargers have forced three and outs on 10% of opponent drives in the first half this season — T-5th-worst in NFL.

The Bills have been successful on 61.9% of rush attempts against a base rush since the 2025 season — best in NFL. The Chargers have allowed a success rate of 58.3% on rush attempts with a base rush since the 2025 season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Chargers have been successful on 60.0% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Bills have allowed a success rate of 55.3% on pass attempts on their own side of the field this season — T-5th-worst in NFL.

The Chargers have been successful on just 0.0% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — T-worst in NFL. The Bills have pressured opposing QBs on 32.9% of passing plays this season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Chargers allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 33.3% of pass attempts last week — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Bills had pressured opposing QBs on 36.8% of passing plays last week — 2nd-best in NFL.

Los Angeles Chargers Offense: Important Stats

The Chargers have run 11% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Chargers have run 27% of their plays in their opponent’s territory this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Chargers started 4 drives inside their own 10 yard line in Week 2 — most in NFL.

The Chargers ran 19% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in Week 2 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats

The Bills have rushed for 20+ yards 4 times this season — T-most in NFL.

The Bills have 4 TDs that were 20+ yards this season — T-most in NFL.

The Bills have run successful plays on 62% of plays on play action passes since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

The Bills have averaged 8.9 yards per play in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.6.

Los Angeles Chargers Defense: Important Stats

The Chargers defense allowed a passer rating of just 11.5 on contested throws (51 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 68.2.

The Chargers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 12.0 on contested throws (57 Pass Attempts) since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 68.6.

The Chargers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 3.0 with tight coverage (111 Pass Attempts) since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 24.0.

The Chargers defense has allowed a late down conversion rate of 14% in short yardage situations since the 2025 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats

The Bills defense pressured opposing QBs 14 times in Week 2 — most in NFL.

The Bills defense has allowed successful plays on 37% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Bills defense did not allow a successful play on any rush attempt in the 2nd half in Week 2 — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Bills defense allowed just 170.2 receiving yards per game (2,894/17) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 225.0.

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More NFL Betting Predictions:

• Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
• Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
• Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
• Passing Yards Prop Predictions
• Receptions Made Prop Predictions
• Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
• Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
• QB Interception Prop Predictions
• Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
• NFL Betting Previews: Every Game

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