NFL Week 10 Predictions: Best Upsets & Underdog Picks

Below, bettors can find my two best NFL underdog picks for Week 10 based on current NFL odds.

After a stellar start to the season, underdogs have completely fallen off a cliff recently. Week 9 saw only one favorite lose outright (New England), while only four dogs covered the spread.

Since Week 7, underdogs are 8-35 SU for a -46.3% return on investment. In the first six weeks, dogs finished 34-58-1 for a 7.9% ROI.

Will favorites continue to dominate in Week 10? Here’s a look at two underdogs I predict are live to not only cover, but win outright.

NFL Week 10 Underdog Predictions

Dallas Cowboys Moneyline (+175) vs San Francisco 49ers

It’s a massive step up in competition for the Cowboys defense, and that definitely concerns me. But I also think it is a strong sell-high opportunity on a semi-fraudulent 49ers defense.

San Francisco ranks eighth in defensive DVOA, having played the 24th-hardest set of offenses. Dallas ranks sixth in offensive DVOA, including ninth through the air, per FTN Fantasy.

It marks only the second time this year the 49ers faced a top-10 offense. The last spot? A Week 1 Australia game against the Rams in an advantageous travel spot.

Dallas poses the biggest test for this secondary all year. Despite that fact, San Francisco still sits 10th in pass defense DVOA with below-average performances littering the schedule.

Currently, San Francisco’s pass defense DVOA mark is 0.2%. However, the unit finished north of 24% in three of their last six games.

On Sunday, the Niners defense rode five Raiders turnovers to a 38-17 win and cover off a Week 8 bye. It ended a two-game streak for the Niners defense allowing 4+ red zone chances.

Given San Francisco’s lack of wide receiver depth, I’m not sure they’re built to keep up in a high-scoring game. Plus, not since Week 4 has Dallas finished under 2.5 red zone chances.

Those factors lead me to predict a Cowboys home victory is more likely than these odds indicate.

Pittsburgh Steelers Moneyline (+160) at Cincinnati Bengals

The matchup screams Cincinnati, but the spot screams Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh required some fluky turnover luck to beat the Bengals at home in Week 3. Now, the Steelers get the Bengals off their Week 9 bye after the Bengals return from Spain.

Defensively, Pittsburgh needs divine intervention to stop the Bengals passing game. Patrick Graham’s defense recorded a 94.1% pass DVOA grade in Week 3, their worst of the year.

Offensively, the Steelers managed only two red zone opportunities on drives not immediately following a turnover.

But the Steelers offense is simultaneously a problematic matchup for the Bengals defense.

The lifeless Titans offense – minus Carnell Tate – registered its best offensive DVOA grade of the year at Cincinnati. On the ground, Cincinnati allowed an 18.8% defensive DVOA grade.

Pittsburgh offers a greater threat on the ground than the Titans. Since Week 3, Pittsburgh averaged a 26.7% rush DVOA grade vs. 14.3% for the entire season.

To win this game, Pittsburgh needs to run the ball as effectively as they did in Week 3. At home, they registered a 22.4% rush DVOA grade without Rico Dowdle available.

If the offense achieves that feat and keeps MVP leader Joe Burrow on the sideline, the Steelers are a live dog. If not, this has the makings of a blowout given Pittsburgh’s coverage issues.