- The Buccaneers are a 2.5-point home underdog against the Falcons.
- The Falcons have scored last in each of their last seven Week 8 games.
- My prediction for Buccaneers vs. Falcons is the Falcons to cover the spread.
For the second time in four weeks, the Buccaneers and Falcons meet in an NFC South divisional clash.
Atlanta’s Week 7 result left much to be desired. The Falcons, as three-point home favorites, received a 34-14 thumping from the Seattle Seahawks to drop to 4-3.
Tampa Bay’s result is yet to be determined. On Monday Night Football, they host the Baltimore Ravens. Read more about my Buccaneers vs. Ravens prediction.
Bet on Buccaneers vs. Falcons and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 8 Odds: Buccaneers vs. Falcons
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | -2.5 (-115) | 46 (-110) | -145 |
| Buccaneers | +2.5 (-105) | 46 (-110) | +120 |
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Prediction
[Writer’s note: this analysis was written prior to the Buccaneers’ MNF game against the Ravens. The line has moved after both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin sustained injuries, but I still play it at Falcons -2.5.]
Based on Atlanta’s strong performance against the Bucs in Atlanta and a historically profitable betting system, my Buccaneers vs. Falcons prediction is the Falcons Spread (+2.5, -105).
I grabbed this at +3 while it was on a key number, but I still like it at +2.5.
Right now, Tampa Bay’s defense just isn’t trustworthy against a strong Atlanta offense. The Bucs sit 23rd in defensive success rate, including 26th against the pass.
Some of that can be attributed to allowing 477 yards to Atlanta, who threw the ball 58 times in Week 5.
Even if Antoine Winfield Jr.’s absence contributed to that output, Atlanta can still run the ball on Tampa Bay.
The Falcons rank seventh in rushing offensive success rate and 11th in yards per rush attempt. Defensively, the Bucs are 18th and 24th in the corresponding defensive categories.
While I worry about Atlanta’s defensive prospects against a strong Buccaneers offense, history suggests they’re in a good spot in Week 8.
Conference divisional dogs at +3.5 or shorter in games 3-9 are 65.6% ATS, assuming their previous ATS margin is higher than -6.
When those teams find themselves in a divisional contest: 37-18-1 ATS (67.3%), including 21-6 ATS when they won the previous head-to-head meeting.
Plus, Baker Mayfield is a dismal 16-27-1 ATS as a market favorite, while Kirk Cousins is 38-33 ATS as a market underdog.
Take the Falcons so long as it remains at +2.5 or better in Week 8.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons: NFL Public Betting Trends
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 64% | 67% | 46% | 93% |
| Buccaneers | 36% | 33% | 54% | 7% |
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