- The Falcons are a 2.5-point home underdog against the Buccaneers.
- The Falcons have won four of their last five home openers as underdogs.
- My Falcons vs Buccaneers prediction is for Atlanta to cover the spread.
Atlanta looks for a third straight win over the Buccaneers in Week 1 as home underdogs.
The Falcons finished 2-0 against Tampa Bay last season. However, by crumbling down the stretch, Tampa Bay stole the division from Raheem Morris’ side.
For Tampa Bay, those two losses to Atlanta marked the only two shortcomings within the NFC South last year.
Bet on Falcons vs. Buccaneers and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers: NFL Week 1 Odds
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prediction
Based on the historically profitable spot for Atlanta and the potential regression of Tampa Bay’s offense, my Falcons vs Buccaneers prediction is the Falcons Spread (+2.5, -110).
In an ideal world, bettors would wait and see if the Falcons rose to +3. At the current number, I still favor taking the Falcons.
What is most impressive about Tampa Bay’s 2024 season is the significant offensive improvement. In 2023, the Bucs ranked 20th in offensive DVOA, including 28th on the ground, per ftnfantasy.com.
Last season, the Bucs jumped to seventh and eighth in those metrics. They also improved by 10 spots in pass offense DVOA.
How much of that can be attributed to Liam Coen is somewhat unknown. Either way, Coen departed this offseason from the Bucs’ offensive coordinator job.
That potentially creates a sell-high spot in Week 1 against a strong Falcons offense. Atlanta underwent a strong improvement, too, jumping from 24th in 2023 to 14th in 2024 DVOA.
At this moment, I’m more confident in Atlanta’s offense retaining its ranking. Zac Robinson returns as the Falcons’ offensive coordinator with a young quarterback and quality skill players.
What’s most interesting about this game is that early support favors Tampa Bay.
Atlanta opened as +1.5-point home dogs and has since risen to +2.5. But in Week 1, history suggests that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
Since 2004, divisional dogs that failed to reach the postseason the prior year in games 1-3 are 67-36-3 ATS (65%), assuming their spread rose between 0.5 and 5.5 points.
In Week 1 alone, those dogs are 34-12 ATS. Over the last three seasons – all weeks inclusive – those dogs are 9-2-1 ATS.
Plus, Baker Mayfield is only 8-7 ATS as a favorite with the Buccaneers, including 4-3 at -4 or shorter.
As a result, I’ll take the Falcons to cover the spread as home underdogs. That said, keep waiting on this number to see if it reaches the key number.
Betting Falcons vs. Buccaneers: NFL Public Betting
*Data is reflective as of Tuesday, July 8.*
| Team | Bets% (ATS) | Money% (ATS) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | 69% | 51% | 89% | 94% |
| Falcons | 31% | 49% | 11% | 6% |
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